Mexico vs South Africa

Group A · Matchday 1

· Estadio Azteca, Mexico City

Group A standings →Bracket →MX 100% · ZA 100% to advance

Mexico

63%

2–0

HT 1–0

South Africa

11%

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Goals (2)

J. Quinones

assist: E. Lira

Mexico

67'

R. Jimenez

assist: R. Alvarado

Mexico

Cards (6)

17'

Teboho Mokoena

South Africa

23'

Brian Gutiérrez

Mexico

49'

Siphephelo Sithole

South Africa

74'

Nkosinathi Sibisi

South Africa

84'

Themba Zwane

South Africa

92'

César Montes

Mexico

Substitutions (9)

56'

↑ T. Mbatha for L. Foster

South Africa

61'

↑ T. Zwane for J. Adams

South Africa

66'

↑ L. Chavez for B. Gutierrez

Mexico

66'

↑ G. Mora for A. Fidalgo

Mexico

76'

↑ E. Alvarez for E. Lira

Mexico

76'

↑ A. Gonzalez for R. Jimenez

Mexico

76'

↑ E. Makgopa for I. Rayners

South Africa

77'

↑ O. Appollis for A. Modiba

South Africa

79'

↑ A. Vega for J. Quinones

Mexico

Match stats

61%Possession39%

16Shots3

4Shots on target2

1.46Expected goals0.07

3Corners1

12Fouls11

1Offsides1

2Saves2

90%Pass accuracy81%

Top performer

J. Quinones

Mexico · 1 goal

Lineups

Mexico4-1-4-1

South Africa5-3-2

What's at stake

Matchday 1, Group A opener. A win swings ~30 percentage points of qualification odds.

Season form comparison

sample home 5 · away 4

2.00

Goals / match

0.50

0.60

Conceded / match

1.00

20%

BTTS rate

25%

80%

Clean sheet rate

25%

1.62

xG / match (club)

0.00

5.6

Corners / match

4.3

2.2

Yellows / match

1.6

57%

Possession

54%

Mexico · last 5

South Africa2-011 June WH

South Korea1-019 June WA

Czechia0-325 June WH

Ecuador2-01 July LH

England2-36 July

South Africa · last 4

Mexico2-011 June DA

Czechia1-118 June WH

South Korea1-025 June LH

Canada0-128 June

Head to head · 2 meetings

Mexico wins

Draws

South Africa wins

Last: Mexico 2-0 South Africa (2026-06-11)avg 2.0 goals

Absences

model swing: 0 / 0 pp

Mexico

No known absences.

South Africa

No known absences.

Win probability

Pre-match

The chart fills in from kickoff. We compute live win probability every 30 seconds.

Updated every 30s. Lines smoothed.

The model's read

High confidence

Result: Mexico are strong favourites at 63%.
Goals: A low-scoring game looks likely. Under 2.5 is favoured (60%).
Both score: Expect at least one clean sheet. Both-teams-score is just 37%.

Most likely score 1-0 (16%)

Why the model leans this way

Factor contributions

home←·→away

Rest days

-6.0%/+6.0%

Travel

0.0%/-3.0%

Club xG form

-1.5%/-3.9%

Head-to-head

+1.0%/-1.0%

Two-model view

Second model api-football

Two models diverge

Mexico

33%

Draw

33%

South Africa

33%

Their internal ratings (0-100)

0·

Form

·0

0·

Attack

·0

0·

Defence

·0

Their advice: No predictions available

Surfaced for transparency. We don't blend api-football's numbers into our model — a second opinion, not a vote.

Match analysis

Score-line probability

brighter = more likely

Mexico goals

0123456

South Africa goals

Most likely: 1-0 16%, 2-0 15%, 0-0 12%. Outlined cells are draws.

Total goals

over 2.5 = 39%

Brighter bars are 3+ goals (over 2.5). Dashed line is the O/U 2.5 split.

Team comparison

MexicoSouth Africa

Percentile vs all 48 teams. Further out is stronger.

Fair odds for every market

How to use this

Fair odds is the lowest price worth taking. It is where a bet breaks even. If your bookmaker offers a bigger number than the fair odds here, the model says that's value. Shop around: the same bet is often priced differently across books.

Match result

Home win63%1.59

Draw26%3.91

Away win11%8.72

Double chance

Home or draw89%1.13

Home or away74%1.34

Draw or away37%2.70

Draw no bet

Home (DNB)85%1.18

Away (DNB)15%6.49

Total goals

Over 0.588%1.13

Under 0.512%8.57

Over 1.567%1.48

Under 1.533%3.07

Over 2.539%2.53

Under 2.561%1.65

Over 3.519%5.16

Under 3.581%1.24

Over 4.58%12.53

Under 4.592%1.09

Odd / even goals

Odd47%2.13

Even53%1.88

Exact total goals

0 goals12%8.57

1 goals21%4.78

2 goals28%3.58

3 goals20%4.97

4 goals11%8.78

5 goals5%19.36

6+ goals3%35.48

Both teams to score

Yes37%2.74

No64%1.57

Team totals

Home over 0.582%1.22

Home over 1.551%1.97

Home over 2.524%4.11

Away over 0.543%2.32

Away over 1.511%9.10

Away over 2.52%50.97

Clean sheet

Home clean sheet57%1.76

Away clean sheet18%5.49

Win to nil

Home win to nil45%2.21

Away win to nil7%15.27

Asian handicap (home)

Home -2.517%5.83

Home -1.538%2.66

Home -0.564%1.56

Home +0.589%1.12

Home +1.597%1.03

Home +2.599%+1.00

Correct score (top 8)

1-016%6.11

2-015%6.65

0-012%8.57

1-111%8.90

3-09%11.71

2-18%11.81

3-15%20.80

0-15%21.99

Half-time result

Home45%2.21

Draw43%2.30

Away11%8.77

Half-time goals

Over 0.564%1.56

Under 0.536%2.77

Over 1.527%3.68

Under 1.573%1.37

Half-time / full-time

Home/Home41%2.42

Home/Draw3%30.34

Home/Away1%188.45

Draw/Home22%4.58

Draw/Draw16%6.11

Draw/Away5%19.29

Away/Home2%49.78

Away/Draw3%30.34

Away/Away6%16.41

Corners (match total)

Indicative

Over 8.566%1.52

Under 8.534%2.93

Over 9.553%1.88

Under 9.547%2.14

Over 10.541%2.45

Under 10.559%1.69

Over 11.529%3.39

Under 11.571%1.42

Over 12.520%4.96

Under 12.580%1.25

Expected total: 9.9

MX corners

Indicative

Over 3.580%1.26

Under 3.520%4.92

Over 4.564%1.56

Under 4.536%2.78

Over 5.547%2.13

Under 5.553%1.88

Over 6.531%3.21

Under 6.569%1.45

Expected total: 5.5

ZA corners

Indicative

Over 3.565%1.54

Under 3.535%2.84

Over 4.546%2.19

Under 4.554%1.84

Over 5.529%3.48

Under 5.571%1.40

Over 6.516%6.19

Under 6.584%1.19

Expected total: 4.4

Yellow cards (match total)

Indicative

Over 2.570%1.44

Under 2.530%3.29

Over 3.548%2.07

Under 3.552%1.93

Over 4.529%3.43

Under 4.571%1.41

Over 5.515%6.46

Under 5.585%1.18

Expected total: 3.6

MX anytime goalscorer

Indicative

low sample (n=1)

J. Quiñones (Midfielder)24%4.19

H. Lozano (?)16%6.39

A. Guardado (?)16%6.39

H. González (?)16%6.39

N. Araújo (?)16%6.39

M. Layún (?)16%6.39

H. Moreno (?)16%6.39

L. Rodríguez (?)16%6.39

Expected total: 1.5

ZA anytime goalscorer

Indicative

low sample (n=2)

T. Maseko (Attacker)18%5.67

I. Rayners (Attacker)16%6.44

O. Appollis (Attacker)16%6.44

E. Makgopa (Attacker)16%6.44

T. Mokoena (Midfielder)6%15.95

D. Keet (?)5%18.28

S. Hlanti (?)5%18.28

T. Hlatshwayo (?)5%18.28

Expected total: 0.9

Probabilities and fair odds are derived from the model's full score-line distribution (expected goals: home 1.70, away 0.56). Half-time and HT/FT markets use a 45/55 first-half split. These are model estimates, not a betting guarantee.