Prediction Track Record

All picks logged before kickoff. Updated after each match settles.

Not beating the closing line yet over 75 priced picks (95% upper bound 32%). Treat the win rate and ROI below as noise until closing-line value turns positive.

Hit rate

51%

47 of 93 settled · 93 logged

ROI

+12.1%

±27.7% (95%)

Avg edge

21.2%

model vs the bookie line

Beat the close

21%

95% CI 14-32%

Every pick is logged before kickoff, only where the model sees a genuine edge against the bookmaker line, and settled after the result. No hindsight. Closing Line Value (CLV) compares the price the model flagged against the sharper price the market settles on just before kickoff. Beating that close, over many picks, is the clearest sign an edge is real, long before win rate or profit can prove it.

Every pick

Sort

Shown

93 settled

Won

of 93

Hit rate

51%

ROI

+12.1%

flat stakes

MatchPickConfOddsEVResult

France vs England

18 July

France Win

60%

1.86

+11.6% EV

Wrong

France vs England

18 July

Wrong

France Win60% confidence@ 1.86+11.6% EV EV

Spain vs Argentina

16 July

Over 2.5 Goals

51%

2.20

+12.1% EV

Wrong

Spain vs Argentina

16 July

Wrong

Over 2.5 Goals51% confidence@ 2.20+12.1% EV EV

England vs Argentina

13 July

Over 2.5 Goals

57%

2.30

+30.3% EV

Correct

England vs Argentina

13 July

Correct

Over 2.5 Goals57% confidence@ 2.30+30.3% EV EV

Norway vs England

10 July

Norway Win

31%

4.20

+28.4% EV

Wrong

Norway vs England

10 July

Wrong

Norway Win31% confidence@ 4.20+28.4% EV EV

Argentina vs Switzerland

10 July

Argentina Win

73%

1.68

+22.6% EV

Correct

Argentina vs Switzerland

10 July

Correct

Argentina Win73% confidence@ 1.68+22.6% EV EV

Norway vs England

9 July

Over 2.5 Goals

64%

1.72

+10.9% EV

Correct

Norway vs England

9 July

Correct

Over 2.5 Goals64% confidence@ 1.72+10.9% EV EV

France vs Morocco

8 July

France Win

77%

1.58

+22.2% EV

Correct

France vs Morocco

8 July

Correct

France Win77% confidence@ 1.58+22.2% EV EV

France vs Morocco

8 July

Over 2.5 Goals

55%

2.07

+13.7% EV

Wrong

France vs Morocco

8 July

Wrong

Over 2.5 Goals55% confidence@ 2.07+13.7% EV EV

Argentina vs Egypt

7 July

Over 2.5 Goals

53%

2.07

+9.8% EV

Correct

Argentina vs Egypt

7 July

Correct

Over 2.5 Goals53% confidence@ 2.07+9.8% EV EV

Switzerland vs Colombia

5 July

Colombia Win

50%

2.25

+11.8% EV

Wrong

Switzerland vs Colombia

5 July

Wrong

Colombia Win50% confidence@ 2.25+11.8% EV EV

Argentina vs Egypt

5 July

Argentina Win

83%

1.35

+12.0% EV

Correct

Argentina vs Egypt

5 July

Correct

Argentina Win83% confidence@ 1.35+12.0% EV EV

Portugal vs Spain

4 July

Draw

34%

3.60

+23.1% EV

Wrong

Portugal vs Spain

4 July

Wrong

Draw34% confidence@ 3.60+23.1% EV EV

Mexico vs England

4 July

England Win

48%

2.40

+14.5% EV

Correct

Mexico vs England

4 July

Correct

England Win48% confidence@ 2.40+14.5% EV EV

Mexico vs England

4 July

Over 2.5 Goals

51%

2.40

+23.6% EV

Correct

Mexico vs England

4 July

Correct

Over 2.5 Goals51% confidence@ 2.40+23.6% EV EV

Brazil vs Norway

4 July

Brazil Win

66%

1.80

+18.8% EV

Wrong

Brazil vs Norway

4 July

Wrong

Brazil Win66% confidence@ 1.80+18.8% EV EV

Switzerland vs Algeria

2 July

Switzerland Win

66%

1.89

+24.7% EV

Correct

Switzerland vs Algeria

2 July

Correct

Switzerland Win66% confidence@ 1.89+24.7% EV EV

Colombia vs Ghana

2 July

Colombia Win

78%

1.50

+16.4% EV

Correct

Colombia vs Ghana

2 July

Correct

Colombia Win78% confidence@ 1.50+16.4% EV EV

Colombia vs Ghana

2 July

Over 2.5 Goals

50%

2.28

+15.0% EV

Wrong

Colombia vs Ghana

2 July

Wrong

Over 2.5 Goals50% confidence@ 2.28+15.0% EV EV

Australia vs Egypt

1 July

Australia Win

35%

3.45

+21.3% EV

Wrong

Australia vs Egypt

1 July

Wrong

Australia Win35% confidence@ 3.45+21.3% EV EV

Switzerland vs Algeria

1 July

Over 2.5 Goals

57%

2.14

+22.8% EV

Wrong

Switzerland vs Algeria

1 July

Wrong

Over 2.5 Goals57% confidence@ 2.14+22.8% EV EV

Portugal vs Croatia

30 June

Portugal Win

61%

1.77

+7.2% EV

Correct

Portugal vs Croatia

30 June

Correct

Portugal Win61% confidence@ 1.77+7.2% EV EV

United States vs Bosnia and Herzegovina

30 June

Over 2.5 Goals

61%

1.75

+7.3% EV

Wrong

United States vs Bosnia and Herzegovina

30 June

Wrong

Over 2.5 Goals61% confidence@ 1.75+7.3% EV EV

Belgium vs Senegal

29 June

Belgium Win

52%

2.23

+15.6% EV

Correct

Belgium vs Senegal

29 June

Correct

Belgium Win52% confidence@ 2.23+15.6% EV EV

Ivory Coast vs Norway

29 June

Norway Win

54%

2.02

+8.2% EV

Correct

Ivory Coast vs Norway

29 June

Correct

Norway Win54% confidence@ 2.02+8.2% EV EV

Ivory Coast vs Norway

28 June

Ivory Coast Win

32%

3.85

+24.4% EV

Wrong

Ivory Coast vs Norway

28 June

Wrong

Ivory Coast Win32% confidence@ 3.85+24.4% EV EV

Netherlands vs Morocco

28 June

Netherlands Win

52%

2.15

+11.7% EV

Wrong

Netherlands vs Morocco

28 June

Wrong

Netherlands Win52% confidence@ 2.15+11.7% EV EV

South Africa vs Canada

28 June

Draw

33%

3.75

+23.3% EV

Wrong

South Africa vs Canada

28 June

Wrong

Draw33% confidence@ 3.75+23.3% EV EV

Brazil vs Japan

28 June

Brazil Win

69%

1.70

+17.7% EV

Correct

Brazil vs Japan

28 June

Correct

Brazil Win69% confidence@ 1.70+17.7% EV EV

Netherlands vs Morocco

28 June

Over 2.5 Goals

51%

2.18

+12.1% EV

Wrong

Netherlands vs Morocco

28 June

Wrong

Over 2.5 Goals51% confidence@ 2.18+12.1% EV EV

Croatia vs Ghana

27 June

Croatia Win

56%

1.90

+7.2% EV

Correct

Croatia vs Ghana

27 June

Correct

Croatia Win56% confidence@ 1.90+7.2% EV EV

DR Congo vs Uzbekistan

26 June

Draw

30%

4.30

+27.5% EV

Wrong

DR Congo vs Uzbekistan

26 June

Wrong

Draw30% confidence@ 4.30+27.5% EV EV

Uruguay vs Spain

26 June

Over 2.5 Goals

56%

2.14

+19.3% EV

Wrong

Uruguay vs Spain

26 June

Wrong

Over 2.5 Goals56% confidence@ 2.14+19.3% EV EV

Croatia vs Ghana

25 June

Over 2.5 Goals

52%

2.30

+19.5% EV

Correct

Croatia vs Ghana

25 June

Correct

Over 2.5 Goals52% confidence@ 2.30+19.5% EV EV

Egypt vs Iran

25 June

Iran Win

32%

3.90

+24.3% EV

Wrong

Egypt vs Iran

25 June

Wrong

Iran Win32% confidence@ 3.90+24.3% EV EV

Cape Verde vs Saudi Arabia

25 June

Draw

38%

3.40

+27.7% EV

Correct

Cape Verde vs Saudi Arabia

25 June

Correct

Draw38% confidence@ 3.40+27.7% EV EV

Norway vs France

24 June

France Win

71%

1.65

+17.3% EV

Correct

Norway vs France

24 June

Correct

France Win71% confidence@ 1.65+17.3% EV EV

Switzerland vs Canada

24 June

Over 2.5 Goals

50%

2.23

+11.5% EV

Correct

Switzerland vs Canada

24 June

Correct

Over 2.5 Goals50% confidence@ 2.23+11.5% EV EV

Japan vs Sweden

23 June

Japan Win

61%

1.90

+15.9% EV

Wrong

Japan vs Sweden

23 June

Wrong

Japan Win61% confidence@ 1.90+15.9% EV EV

Japan vs Sweden

23 June

Over 2.5 Goals

65%

1.68

+8.5% EV

Wrong

Japan vs Sweden

23 June

Wrong

Over 2.5 Goals65% confidence@ 1.68+8.5% EV EV

Ecuador vs Germany

23 June

Germany Win

60%

1.86

+11.4% EV

Wrong

Ecuador vs Germany

23 June

Wrong

Germany Win60% confidence@ 1.86+11.4% EV EV

Switzerland vs Canada

22 June

Switzerland Win

47%

2.45

+14.4% EV

Correct

Switzerland vs Canada

22 June

Correct

Switzerland Win47% confidence@ 2.45+14.4% EV EV

Colombia vs DR Congo

22 June

Colombia Win

78%

1.50

+16.3% EV

Correct

Colombia vs DR Congo

22 June

Correct

Colombia Win78% confidence@ 1.50+16.3% EV EV

Colombia vs DR Congo

22 June

Over 2.5 Goals

55%

2.10

+15.7% EV

Wrong

Colombia vs DR Congo

22 June

Wrong

Over 2.5 Goals55% confidence@ 2.10+15.7% EV EV

Panama vs Croatia

21 June

Croatia Win

78%

1.53

+18.6% EV

Correct

Panama vs Croatia

21 June

Correct

Croatia Win78% confidence@ 1.53+18.6% EV EV

New Zealand vs Egypt

21 June

Over 2.5 Goals

55%

2.02

+11.3% EV

Correct

New Zealand vs Egypt

21 June

Correct

Over 2.5 Goals55% confidence@ 2.02+11.3% EV EV

Jordan vs Algeria

21 June

Jordan Win

24%

6.40

+52.3% EV

Wrong

Jordan vs Algeria

21 June

Wrong

Jordan Win24% confidence@ 6.40+52.3% EV EV

Norway vs Senegal

21 June

Senegal Win

41%

3.25

+33.9% EV

Wrong

Norway vs Senegal

21 June

Wrong

Senegal Win41% confidence@ 3.25+33.9% EV EV

Norway vs Senegal

21 June

Over 2.5 Goals

61%

1.90

+15.6% EV

Correct

Norway vs Senegal

21 June

Correct

Over 2.5 Goals61% confidence@ 1.90+15.6% EV EV

Argentina vs Austria

20 June

Argentina Win

75%

1.58

+18.3% EV

Correct

Argentina vs Austria

20 June

Correct

Argentina Win75% confidence@ 1.58+18.3% EV EV

Uruguay vs Cape Verde

20 June

Draw

30%

4.20

+28.0% EV

Correct

Uruguay vs Cape Verde

20 June

Correct

Draw30% confidence@ 4.20+28.0% EV EV

New Zealand vs Egypt

20 June

Egypt Win

74%

1.60

+18.0% EV

Correct

New Zealand vs Egypt

20 June

Correct

Egypt Win74% confidence@ 1.60+18.0% EV EV

Uruguay vs Cape Verde

19 June

Uruguay Win

79%

1.44

+13.9% EV

Wrong

Uruguay vs Cape Verde

19 June

Wrong

Uruguay Win79% confidence@ 1.44+13.9% EV EV

Uruguay vs Cape Verde

19 June

Over 2.5 Goals

53%

2.14

+12.8% EV

Correct

Uruguay vs Cape Verde

19 June

Correct

Over 2.5 Goals53% confidence@ 2.14+12.8% EV EV

United States vs Australia

19 June

Australia Win

32%

5.25

+68.0% EV

Wrong

United States vs Australia

19 June

Wrong

Australia Win32% confidence@ 5.25+68.0% EV EV

Turkey vs Paraguay

19 June

Turkey Win

54%

2.05

+10.4% EV

Wrong

Turkey vs Paraguay

19 June

Wrong

Turkey Win54% confidence@ 2.05+10.4% EV EV

Tunisia vs Japan

19 June

Japan Win

71%

1.53

+9.0% EV

Correct

Tunisia vs Japan

19 June

Correct

Japan Win71% confidence@ 1.53+9.0% EV EV

Tunisia vs Japan

19 June

Over 2.5 Goals

54%

2.00

+8.3% EV

Correct

Tunisia vs Japan

19 June

Correct

Over 2.5 Goals54% confidence@ 2.00+8.3% EV EV

United States vs Australia

19 June

Draw

29%

4.40

+29.3% EV

Wrong

United States vs Australia

19 June

Wrong

Draw29% confidence@ 4.40+29.3% EV EV

Germany vs Ivory Coast

18 June

Germany Win

75%

1.53

+15.5% EV

Correct

Germany vs Ivory Coast

18 June

Correct

Germany Win75% confidence@ 1.53+15.5% EV EV

Netherlands vs Sweden

18 June

Over 2.5 Goals

66%

1.87

+23.8% EV

Correct

Netherlands vs Sweden

18 June

Correct

Over 2.5 Goals66% confidence@ 1.87+23.8% EV EV

Netherlands vs Sweden

18 June

Netherlands Win

69%

1.73

+19.3% EV

Correct

Netherlands vs Sweden

18 June

Correct

Netherlands Win69% confidence@ 1.73+19.3% EV EV

Mexico vs South Korea

18 June

Over 2.5 Goals

52%

2.23

+17.0% EV

Wrong

Mexico vs South Korea

18 June

Wrong

Over 2.5 Goals52% confidence@ 2.23+17.0% EV EV

Turkey vs Paraguay

18 June

Paraguay Win

32%

4.00

+29.4% EV

Correct

Turkey vs Paraguay

18 June

Correct

Paraguay Win32% confidence@ 4.00+29.4% EV EV

Scotland vs Morocco

17 June

Scotland Win

30%

5.50

+63.7% EV

Wrong

Scotland vs Morocco

17 June

Wrong

Scotland Win30% confidence@ 5.50+63.7% EV EV

Scotland vs Morocco

17 June

Over 2.5 Goals

51%

2.16

+9.8% EV

Wrong

Scotland vs Morocco

17 June

Wrong

Over 2.5 Goals51% confidence@ 2.16+9.8% EV EV

Portugal vs DR Congo

17 June

Portugal Win

80%

1.30

+4.3% EV

Wrong

Portugal vs DR Congo

17 June

Wrong

Portugal Win80% confidence@ 1.30+4.3% EV EV

Canada vs Qatar

16 June

Draw

28%

5.75

+59.7% EV

Wrong

Canada vs Qatar

16 June

Wrong

Draw28% confidence@ 5.75+59.7% EV EV

Switzerland vs Bosnia and Herzegovina

16 June

Over 2.5 Goals

54%

2.05

+10.4% EV

Correct

Switzerland vs Bosnia and Herzegovina

16 June

Correct

Over 2.5 Goals54% confidence@ 2.05+10.4% EV EV

Czechia vs South Africa

16 June

Czechia Win

65%

1.75

+14.5% EV

Wrong

Czechia vs South Africa

16 June

Wrong

Czechia Win65% confidence@ 1.75+14.5% EV EV

England vs Croatia

16 June

Over 2.5 Goals

52%

2.15

+11.8% EV

Correct

England vs Croatia

16 June

Correct

Over 2.5 Goals52% confidence@ 2.15+11.8% EV EV

Uzbekistan vs Colombia

16 June

Uzbekistan Win

77%

1.40

+7.8% EV

Wrong

Uzbekistan vs Colombia

16 June

Wrong

Uzbekistan Win77% confidence@ 1.40+7.8% EV EV

Uzbekistan vs Colombia

16 June

Over 2.5 Goals

59%

1.96

+14.7% EV

Correct

Uzbekistan vs Colombia

16 June

Correct

Over 2.5 Goals59% confidence@ 1.96+14.7% EV EV

England vs Croatia

15 June

Croatia Win

31%

5.25

+62.9% EV

Wrong

England vs Croatia

15 June

Wrong

Croatia Win31% confidence@ 5.25+62.9% EV EV

Argentina vs Algeria

15 June

Argentina Win

81%

1.36

+10.4% EV

Correct

Argentina vs Algeria

15 June

Correct

Argentina Win81% confidence@ 1.36+10.4% EV EV

Iraq vs Norway

14 June

Draw

22%

7.00

+53.9% EV

Wrong

Iraq vs Norway

14 June

Wrong

Draw22% confidence@ 7.00+53.9% EV EV

France vs Senegal

14 June

France Win

76%

1.44

+9.9% EV

Correct

France vs Senegal

14 June

Correct

France Win76% confidence@ 1.44+9.9% EV EV

Sweden vs Tunisia

14 June

Over 2.5 Goals

50%

2.20

+9.9% EV

Correct

Sweden vs Tunisia

14 June

Correct

Over 2.5 Goals50% confidence@ 2.20+9.9% EV EV

Saudi Arabia vs Uruguay

14 June

Uruguay Win

73%

1.43

+4.2% EV

Wrong

Saudi Arabia vs Uruguay

14 June

Wrong

Uruguay Win73% confidence@ 1.43+4.2% EV EV

Sweden vs Tunisia

14 June

Sweden Win

59%

1.92

+13.3% EV

Correct

Sweden vs Tunisia

14 June

Correct

Sweden Win59% confidence@ 1.92+13.3% EV EV

Ivory Coast vs Ecuador

14 June

Ecuador Win

59%

2.55

+51.5% EV

Wrong

Ivory Coast vs Ecuador

14 June

Wrong

Ecuador Win59% confidence@ 2.55+51.5% EV EV

Netherlands vs Japan

14 June

Netherlands Win

66%

2.02

+33.8% EV

Wrong

Netherlands vs Japan

14 June

Wrong

Netherlands Win66% confidence@ 2.02+33.8% EV EV

Qatar vs Switzerland

13 June

Draw

21%

7.50

+55.5% EV

Correct

Qatar vs Switzerland

13 June

Correct

Draw21% confidence@ 7.50+55.5% EV EV

Australia vs Turkey

13 June

Australia Win

29%

5.50

+57.7% EV

Correct

Australia vs Turkey

13 June

Correct

Australia Win29% confidence@ 5.50+57.7% EV EV

Haiti vs Scotland

13 June

Scotland Win

74%

1.50

+10.4% EV

Correct

Haiti vs Scotland

13 June

Correct

Scotland Win74% confidence@ 1.50+10.4% EV EV

Brazil vs Morocco

13 June

Brazil Win

73%

1.68

+22.5% EV

Wrong

Brazil vs Morocco

13 June

Wrong

Brazil Win73% confidence@ 1.68+22.5% EV EV

Qatar vs Switzerland

11 June

Over 2.5 Goals

79%

1.60

+26.5% EV

Wrong

Qatar vs Switzerland

11 June

Wrong

Over 2.5 Goals79% confidence@ 1.60+26.5% EV EV

Qatar vs Switzerland

11 June

Switzerland Win

88%

1.20

+5.4% EV

Wrong

Qatar vs Switzerland

11 June

Wrong

Switzerland Win88% confidence@ 1.20+5.4% EV EV

South Korea vs Czechia

11 June

South Korea Win

52%

2.70

+40.8% EV

Correct

South Korea vs Czechia

11 June

Correct

South Korea Win52% confidence@ 2.70+40.8% EV EV

United States vs Paraguay

11 June

Over 2.5 Goals

53%

2.23

+18.3% EV

Correct

United States vs Paraguay

11 June

Correct

Over 2.5 Goals53% confidence@ 2.23+18.3% EV EV

United States vs Paraguay

11 June

Paraguay Win

29%

4.20

+21.4% EV

Wrong

United States vs Paraguay

11 June

Wrong

Paraguay Win29% confidence@ 4.20+21.4% EV EV

Canada vs Bosnia and Herzegovina

10 June

Over 2.5 Goals

51%

2.10

+6.3% EV

Wrong

Canada vs Bosnia and Herzegovina

10 June

Wrong

Over 2.5 Goals51% confidence@ 2.10+6.3% EV EV

Canada vs Bosnia and Herzegovina

10 June

Bosnia and Herzegovina Win

35%

4.80

+69.6% EV

Wrong

Canada vs Bosnia and Herzegovina

10 June

Wrong

Bosnia and Herzegovina Win35% confidence@ 4.80+69.6% EV EV

South Korea vs Czechia

10 June

Over 2.5 Goals

53%

2.10

+11.4% EV

Correct

South Korea vs Czechia

10 June

Correct

Over 2.5 Goals53% confidence@ 2.10+11.4% EV EV