World Cup Projections
Who advances, who wins, by simulation
The model's call
Who wins the World Cup?
20,000 simulations of the remaining fixtures, sampling every match from the same Dixon-Coles model that powers the per-match pages. Probability of lifting the trophy.
Contenders
4
Brazil
Group C · 7.0 pts
Colombia
Group K · 7.0 pts
Portugal
Group K · 5.0 pts
England
Group L · 7.0 pts
Belgium
Group G · 5.0 pts
Dark horses
9
Netherlands
Group F · 7.0 pts
Germany
Group E · 6.0 pts
Switzerland
Group B · 7.0 pts
Outsiders
12
Norway
Group I · 6.0 pts
Mexico
Group A · 9.0 pts
Morocco
Group C · 7.0 pts
Ecuador
Group E · 4.0 pts
Croatia
Group L · 6.0 pts
Japan
Group F · 5.0 pts
Senegal
Group I · 3.0 pts
Egypt
Group G · 5.0 pts
Australia
Group D · 4.0 pts
United States
Group D · 6.0 pts
Cape Verde
Group H · 3.0 pts
Ivory Coast
Group E · 6.0 pts
Paraguay
Group D · 4.0 pts
DR Congo
Group K · 4.0 pts
Ghana
Group L · 4.0 pts
Austria
Group J · 4.0 pts
Canada
Group B · 4.0 pts
Sweden
Group F · 4.0 pts
South Africa
Group A · 4.0 pts
Bosnia and Herzegovina
Group B · 4.0 pts
Algeria
Group J · 4.0 pts
Czechia
Group A · 1.0 pts
South Korea
Group A · 3.0 pts
Qatar
Group B · 1.0 pts
Turkey
Group D · 3.0 pts
Scotland
Group C · 3.0 pts
Haiti
Group C · 0.0 pts
Curacao
Group E · 1.0 pts
Tunisia
Group F · 0.0 pts
Saudi Arabia
Group H · 2.0 pts
Uruguay
Group H · 2.0 pts
Iran
Group G · 3.0 pts
New Zealand
Group G · 1.0 pts
Iraq
Group I · 0.0 pts
Jordan
Group J · 0.0 pts
Uzbekistan
Group K · 0.0 pts
Panama
Group L · 0.0 pts
Projections update as results come in and odds move. 72 group matches already factored in. See how accurate the model has been on the report card.