Team
Mexico vs South Africa
Group A · Matchday 1
· Estadio Azteca, Mexico City
Goals (2)
Cards (6)
17'
South Africa
Teboho Mokoena
23'
Mexico
Brian Gutiérrez
49'South Africa
Siphephelo Sithole
74'South Africa
Nkosinathi Sibisi
84'South Africa
Themba Zwane
92'Mexico
César Montes
Substitutions (9)
56'South Africa
↑ T. Mbatha for L. Foster
61'South Africa
↑ T. Zwane for J. Adams
66'Mexico
↑ L. Chavez for B. Gutierrez
66'Mexico
↑ G. Mora for A. Fidalgo
76'Mexico
↑ E. Alvarez for E. Lira
76'Mexico
↑ A. Gonzalez for R. Jimenez
76'South Africa
↑ E. Makgopa for I. Rayners
77'South Africa
↑ O. Appollis for A. Modiba
79'Mexico
↑ A. Vega for J. Quinones
Match stats
61%Possession39%
16Shots3
4Shots on target2
1.46Expected goals0.07
3Corners1
12Fouls11
1Offsides1
2Saves2
90%Pass accuracy81%
Top performer
JQJ. Quinones
Mexico · 1 goal
Lineups
Mexico4-1-4-1
South Africa5-3-2
What's at stake
Matchday 1, Group A opener. A win swings ~30 percentage points of qualification odds.
Season form comparison
sample home 5 · away 4
2.00
Goals / match
0.50
0.60
Conceded / match
1.00
20%
BTTS rate
25%
80%
Clean sheet rate
25%
1.62
xG / match (club)
0.00
5.6
Corners / match
4.3
2.2
Yellows / match
1.6
57%
Possession
54%
Mexico · last 5
South Africa · last 4
Head to head · 2 meetings
1
Mexico wins
1
Draws
0
South Africa wins
Last: Mexico 2-0 South Africa (2026-06-11)avg 2.0 goals
Absences
model swing: 0 / 0 pp
Mexico
No known absences.
South Africa
No known absences.
Win probability
Pre-match
The chart fills in from kickoff. We compute live win probability every 30 seconds.
Updated every 30s. Lines smoothed.
The model's read
High confidenceResult: Mexico are strong favourites at 63%.
Goals: A low-scoring game looks likely. Under 2.5 is favoured (60%).
Both score: Expect at least one clean sheet. Both-teams-score is just 37%.
Most likely score 1-0 (16%)
Why the model leans this way
Factor contributions
home←·→away
Rest days
-6.0%/+6.0%
Travel
0.0%/-3.0%
Club xG form
-1.5%/-3.9%
Head-to-head
+1.0%/-1.0%
Two-model view
Second model api-football
Two models divergeMexico
33%
Draw
33%
South Africa
33%
Their internal ratings (0-100)
0·
Form
·0
0·
Attack
·0
0·
Defence
·0
Their advice: No predictions available
Surfaced for transparency. We don't blend api-football's numbers into our model — a second opinion, not a vote.
Match analysis
Score-line probability
brighter = more likely
Mexico goals
12
5
16
11
15
8
9
5
0123456
South Africa goals
Most likely: 1-0 16%, 2-0 15%, 0-0 12%. Outlined cells are draws.
Total goals
over 2.5 = 39%
120
211
282
203
114
55
36+
Brighter bars are 3+ goals (over 2.5). Dashed line is the O/U 2.5 split.
Team comparison
MexicoSouth Africa
Percentile vs all 48 teams. Further out is stronger.
Fair odds for every market
How to use this
Fair odds is the lowest price worth taking. It is where a bet breaks even. If your bookmaker offers a bigger number than the fair odds here, the model says that's value. Shop around: the same bet is often priced differently across books.
Match result
Home win63%1.59
Draw26%3.91
Away win11%8.72
Double chance
Home or draw89%1.13
Home or away74%1.34
Draw or away37%2.70
Draw no bet
Home (DNB)85%1.18
Away (DNB)15%6.49
Total goals
Over 0.588%1.13
Under 0.512%8.57
Over 1.567%1.48
Under 1.533%3.07
Over 2.539%2.53
Under 2.561%1.65
Over 3.519%5.16
Under 3.581%1.24
Over 4.58%12.53
Under 4.592%1.09
Odd / even goals
Odd47%2.13
Even53%1.88
Exact total goals
0 goals12%8.57
1 goals21%4.78
2 goals28%3.58
3 goals20%4.97
4 goals11%8.78
5 goals5%19.36
6+ goals3%35.48
Both teams to score
Yes37%2.74
No64%1.57
Team totals
Home over 0.582%1.22
Home over 1.551%1.97
Home over 2.524%4.11
Away over 0.543%2.32
Away over 1.511%9.10
Away over 2.52%50.97
Clean sheet
Home clean sheet57%1.76
Away clean sheet18%5.49
Win to nil
Home win to nil45%2.21
Away win to nil7%15.27
Asian handicap (home)
Home -2.517%5.83
Home -1.538%2.66
Home -0.564%1.56
Home +0.589%1.12
Home +1.597%1.03
Home +2.599%+1.00
Correct score (top 8)
1-016%6.11
2-015%6.65
0-012%8.57
1-111%8.90
3-09%11.71
2-18%11.81
3-15%20.80
0-15%21.99
Half-time result
Home45%2.21
Draw43%2.30
Away11%8.77
Half-time goals
Over 0.564%1.56
Under 0.536%2.77
Over 1.527%3.68
Under 1.573%1.37
Half-time / full-time
Home/Home41%2.42
Home/Draw3%30.34
Home/Away1%188.45
Draw/Home22%4.58
Draw/Draw16%6.11
Draw/Away5%19.29
Away/Home2%49.78
Away/Draw3%30.34
Away/Away6%16.41
Corners (match total)
IndicativeOver 8.566%1.52
Under 8.534%2.93
Over 9.553%1.88
Under 9.547%2.14
Over 10.541%2.45
Under 10.559%1.69
Over 11.529%3.39
Under 11.571%1.42
Over 12.520%4.96
Under 12.580%1.25
Expected total: 9.9
MX corners
IndicativeOver 3.580%1.26
Under 3.520%4.92
Over 4.564%1.56
Under 4.536%2.78
Over 5.547%2.13
Under 5.553%1.88
Over 6.531%3.21
Under 6.569%1.45
Expected total: 5.5
ZA corners
IndicativeOver 3.565%1.54
Under 3.535%2.84
Over 4.546%2.19
Under 4.554%1.84
Over 5.529%3.48
Under 5.571%1.40
Over 6.516%6.19
Under 6.584%1.19
Expected total: 4.4
Yellow cards (match total)
IndicativeOver 2.570%1.44
Under 2.530%3.29
Over 3.548%2.07
Under 3.552%1.93
Over 4.529%3.43
Under 4.571%1.41
Over 5.515%6.46
Under 5.585%1.18
Expected total: 3.6
MX anytime goalscorer
Indicativelow sample (n=1)
J. Quiñones (Midfielder)24%4.19
H. Lozano (?)16%6.39
A. Guardado (?)16%6.39
H. González (?)16%6.39
N. Araújo (?)16%6.39
M. Layún (?)16%6.39
H. Moreno (?)16%6.39
L. Rodríguez (?)16%6.39
Expected total: 1.5
ZA anytime goalscorer
Indicativelow sample (n=2)
T. Maseko (Attacker)18%5.67
I. Rayners (Attacker)16%6.44
O. Appollis (Attacker)16%6.44
E. Makgopa (Attacker)16%6.44
T. Mokoena (Midfielder)6%15.95
D. Keet (?)5%18.28
S. Hlanti (?)5%18.28
T. Hlatshwayo (?)5%18.28
Expected total: 0.9
Probabilities and fair odds are derived from the model's full score-line distribution (expected goals: home 1.70, away 0.56). Half-time and HT/FT markets use a 45/55 first-half split. These are model estimates, not a betting guarantee.