Canada vs Bosnia and Herzegovina

Group B · Matchday 1

· BMO Field, Toronto

Group B standings →Bracket →CA 100% · BA 100% to advance

Canada

38%

1–1

HT 0–1

Bosnia and Herzegovina

31%

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Goals (2)

21'

J. Lukic

assist: S. Kolasinac

Bosnia and Herzegovina

78'

C. Larin

assist: P. David

Canada

Cards (5)

11'

Alistair Johnston

Canada

46'

Jovo Lukić

Bosnia and Herzegovina

45'

Ermedin Demirović

Bosnia and Herzegovina

53'

Luc De Fougerolles

Canada

93'

Nikola Katić

Bosnia and Herzegovina

Substitutions (10)

61'

↑ J. Shaffelburg for L. Millar

Canada

61'

↑ P. David for J. David

Canada

61'

↑ A. Ahmed for T. Buchanan

Canada

62'

↑ A. Gigovic for I. Basic

Bosnia and Herzegovina

62'

↑ S. Bazdar for J. Lukic

Bosnia and Herzegovina

74'

↑ I. Sunjic for E. Bajraktarevic

Bosnia and Herzegovina

74'

↑ K. Alajbegovic for A. Memic

Bosnia and Herzegovina

76'

↑ C. Larin for T. Oluwaseyi

Canada

84'

↑ D. Burnic for S. Kolasinac

Bosnia and Herzegovina

91'

↑ J. Osorio for S. Eustaquio

Canada

Match stats

61%Possession39%

13Shots8

4Shots on target3

1.23Expected goals0.96

9Corners4

10Fouls20

1Offsides0

2Saves1

74%Pass accuracy63%

Top performer

J. Lukic

Bosnia and Herzegovina · 1 goal

Lineups

Canada4-4-2

Bosnia and Herzegovina4-4-2

What's at stake

Matchday 1, Group B opener. A win swings ~30 percentage points of qualification odds.

Season form comparison

sample home 5 · away 4

1.80

Goals / match

1.25

1.20

Conceded / match

2.00

40%

BTTS rate

75%

40%

Clean sheet rate

1.33

xG / match (club)

2.44

5.5

Corners / match

5.1

2.0

Yellows / match

2.4

52%

Possession

51%

Canada · last 5

Bosnia and Herzegovina1-112 June WH

Qatar6-018 June LA

Switzerland2-124 June WA

South Africa0-128 June LH

Morocco0-34 July

Bosnia and Herzegovina · last 4

Canada1-112 June LA

Switzerland4-118 June WH

Qatar3-124 June LA

United States2-02 July

Head to head · 1 meetings

Canada wins

Draws

Bosnia and Herzegovina wins

Last: Canada 1-1 Bosnia & Herzegovina (2026-06-12)avg 2.0 goals

Absences

model swing: 0 / 0 pp

Canada

No known absences.

Bosnia and Herzegovina

No known absences.

Win probability

Pre-match

The chart fills in from kickoff. We compute live win probability every 30 seconds.

Updated every 30s. Lines smoothed.

The model's read

Wide-open match

Result: An open match. Canada edge it at just 38%.
Goals: Goals are a coin-flip around the 2.5 line (over 45%).

Most likely score 1-1 (15%)

Why the model leans this way

Factor contributions

home←·→away

Rest days

-4.0%/+4.0%

Travel

-3.0%/0.0%

Club xG form

-1.0%/+0.7%

Set pieces

+0.9%/+0.2%

Two-model view

Second model api-football

Two-model consensus

Canada

33%

Draw

33%

Bosnia and Herzegovina

33%

Their internal ratings (0-100)

0·

Form

·0

0·

Attack

·0

0·

Defence

·0

Their advice: No predictions available

Surfaced for transparency. We don't blend api-football's numbers into our model — a second opinion, not a vote.

Match analysis

Score-line probability

brighter = more likely

Canada goals

0123456

Bosnia and Herzegovina goals

Most likely: 1-1 15%, 0-0 10%, 1-0 9%. Outlined cells are draws.

Total goals

over 2.5 = 45%

Brighter bars are 3+ goals (over 2.5). Dashed line is the O/U 2.5 split.

Team comparison

CanadaBosnia and Herzegovina

Percentile vs all 48 teams. Further out is stronger.

Fair odds for every market

How to use this

Fair odds is the lowest price worth taking. It is where a bet breaks even. If your bookmaker offers a bigger number than the fair odds here, the model says that's value. Shop around: the same bet is often priced differently across books.

Match result

Home win38%2.61

Draw30%3.28

Away win31%3.20

Double chance

Home or draw69%1.45

Home or away70%1.44

Draw or away62%1.62

Draw no bet

Home (DNB)55%1.82

Away (DNB)45%2.22

Total goals

Over 0.590%1.11

Under 0.510%9.85

Over 1.572%1.38

Under 1.528%3.60

Over 2.545%2.23

Under 2.555%1.81

Over 3.524%4.25

Under 3.576%1.31

Over 4.510%9.57

Under 4.590%1.12

Odd / even goals

Odd46%2.16

Even54%1.86

Exact total goals

0 goals10%9.85

1 goals18%5.69

2 goals27%3.64

3 goals21%4.71

4 goals13%7.64

5 goals6%15.48

6+ goals4%25.09

Both teams to score

Yes52%1.93

No48%2.07

Team totals

Home over 0.573%1.37

Home over 1.538%2.65

Home over 2.515%6.88

Away over 0.569%1.46

Away over 1.532%3.11

Away over 2.511%9.00

Clean sheet

Home clean sheet31%3.18

Away clean sheet27%3.71

Win to nil

Home win to nil21%4.69

Away win to nil17%5.95

Asian handicap (home)

Home -2.56%15.53

Home -1.518%5.50

Home -0.538%2.60

Home +0.569%1.45

Home +1.587%1.15

Home +2.596%1.04

Correct score (top 8)

1-115%6.88

0-010%9.85

1-09%10.58

2-18%11.87

0-18%12.29

1-27%13.46

2-07%13.72

0-26%17.64

Half-time result

Home30%3.30

Draw44%2.28

Away26%3.88

Half-time goals

Over 0.567%1.49

Under 0.533%3.03

Over 1.530%3.28

Under 1.570%1.44

Half-time / full-time

Home/Home24%4.25

Home/Draw5%19.96

Home/Away2%55.91

Draw/Home15%6.89

Draw/Draw17%5.85

Draw/Away12%8.16

Away/Home2%47.83

Away/Draw5%19.96

Away/Away19%5.35

Corners (match total)

Indicative

Over 8.568%1.46

Under 8.532%3.15

Over 9.556%1.79

Under 9.544%2.27

Over 10.543%2.30

Under 10.557%1.77

Over 11.532%3.13

Under 11.568%1.47

Over 12.522%4.50

Under 12.578%1.29

Expected total: 10.1

CA corners

Indicative

Over 3.578%1.29

Under 3.522%4.46

Over 4.561%1.63

Under 4.539%2.58

Over 5.544%2.28

Under 5.556%1.78

Over 6.528%3.52

Under 6.572%1.40

Expected total: 5.3

BA corners

Indicative

Over 3.571%1.41

Under 3.529%3.46

Over 4.553%1.89

Under 4.547%2.13

Over 5.535%2.82

Under 5.565%1.55

Over 6.521%4.68

Under 6.579%1.27

Expected total: 4.8

Yellow cards (match total)

Indicative

Over 2.579%1.26

Under 2.521%4.86

Over 3.561%1.64

Under 3.539%2.57

Over 4.542%2.40

Under 4.558%1.71

Over 5.525%3.96

Under 5.575%1.34

Expected total: 4.2

CA anytime goalscorer

Indicative

low sample (n=1)

N. Saliba (Midfielder)14%7.14

J. Leutwiler (?)12%8.14

L. Cavallini (?)12%8.14

D. Wotherspoon (?)12%8.14

H. Paton (?)12%8.14

A. Akinola (?)12%8.14

T. Ricketts (?)12%8.14

T. Borges (?)12%8.14

Expected total: 1.1

BA anytime goalscorer

Indicative

very low sample (n=0)

E. Džeko (Attacker)29%3.41

E. Bičakčić (?)11%9.16

B. Šerbečić (?)11%9.16

I. Hajrović (?)11%9.16

G. Cimirot (?)11%9.16

H. Hankič (?)11%9.16

M. Jajalo (?)11%9.16

Goran Zakarić (?)11%9.16

Expected total: 1.2

Probabilities and fair odds are derived from the model's full score-line distribution (expected goals: home 1.31, away 1.16). Half-time and HT/FT markets use a 45/55 first-half split. These are model estimates, not a betting guarantee.