Canada vs Qatar
Group B · Matchday 2
· BC Place, Vancouver
Goals (6)
Cards (4)
Derek Cornelius
Homam Al-Amin
Assim Madibo
Ahmed Fathi
Substitutions (10)
↑ Sultan Al-Brake for Yusuf Abdurisag
↑ Moise Bombito for Derek Cornelius
↑ Mohamed Naceur Almanai for Jassem Gaber Abdulsallam
↑ Ahmed Fathi for Edmilson Junior
↑ Nathan-Dylan Saliba for Ismael Koné
↑ Al-Hashmi Al-Hussain for Akram Afif
↑ Tani Oluwaseyi for Ali Ahmed
↑ Jacob Shaffelburg for Luc De Fougerolles
↑ Niko Sigur for Tajon Buchanan
↑ Lucas Mendes for Ahmed Fathi
Match stats
Top performer
JDJonathan David
Canada · 3 goals
Lineups
Canada4-4-2
What's at stake
Matchday 2, Group B. The losing side here typically needs a Matchday 3 win plus favourable other-game results to advance.
Season form comparison
sample home 5 · away 3
Canada · last 5
Head to head · 2 meetings
2
Canada wins
0
Draws
0
Qatar wins
Absences
model swing: 0 / 0 pp
Canada
No known absences.
Qatar
No known absences.
Win probability
Pre-match
The chart fills in from kickoff. We compute live win probability every 30 seconds.
Updated every 30s. Lines smoothed.
The model's read
High confidenceResult: Canada are strong favourites at 65%.
Goals: Goals expected. Over 2.5 lands 57% of the time.
Why the model leans this way
Factor contributions
home←·→away
Two-model view
Second model api-football
Two models moderately agreeCanada
45%
Draw
45%
Qatar
10%
Their internal ratings (0-100)
Their advice: Combo Double chance : Canada or draw and -3.5 goals
Surfaced for transparency. We don't blend api-football's numbers into our model — a second opinion, not a vote.
Key players to watch
Canada
No per-90 data for this squad yet.
Per-90 stats: Rising Transfers (risingtransfers.com), CC BY 4.0
Match analysis
Score-line probability
brighter = more likely
Qatar goals
Most likely: 2-0 12%, 1-1 10%, 1-0 10%. Outlined cells are draws.
Total goals
over 2.5 = 56%
Brighter bars are 3+ goals (over 2.5). Dashed line is the O/U 2.5 split.
Team comparison
Percentile vs all 48 teams. Further out is stronger.
Fair odds for every market
How to use this
Fair odds is the lowest price worth taking. It is where a bet breaks even. If your bookmaker offers a bigger number than the fair odds here, the model says that's value. Shop around: the same bet is often priced differently across books.
Match result
Double chance
Draw no bet
Total goals
Odd / even goals
Exact total goals
Both teams to score
Team totals
Clean sheet
Win to nil
Asian handicap (home)
Correct score (top 8)
Half-time result
Half-time goals
Half-time / full-time
Corners (match total)
IndicativeExpected total: 9.1
CA corners
IndicativeExpected total: 5.3
QA corners
IndicativeExpected total: 3.8
Yellow cards (match total)
IndicativeExpected total: 3.9
CA anytime goalscorer
Indicativelow sample (n=1)
Expected total: 1.7
QA anytime goalscorer
Indicativelow sample (n=1)
Expected total: 2.0
Probabilities and fair odds are derived from the model's full score-line distribution (expected goals: home 2.13, away 0.82). Half-time and HT/FT markets use a 45/55 first-half split. These are model estimates, not a betting guarantee.