Team
Canada vs Qatar
Group B · Matchday 2
· BC Place, Vancouver
Goals (6)
Cards (4)
9'
Canada
Derek Cornelius
33'
Qatar
Homam Al-Amin
53'Qatar
Assim Madibo
62'Qatar
Ahmed Fathi
Substitutions (10)
40'Qatar
↑ Sultan Al-Brake for Yusuf Abdurisag
46'Canada
↑ Moise Bombito for Derek Cornelius
46'Qatar
↑ Mohamed Naceur Almanai for Jassem Gaber Abdulsallam
46'Qatar
↑ Ahmed Fathi for Edmilson Junior
57'Canada
↑ Nathan-Dylan Saliba for Ismael Koné
59'Qatar
↑ Al-Hashmi Al-Hussain for Akram Afif
71'Canada
↑ Tani Oluwaseyi for Ali Ahmed
71'Canada
↑ Jacob Shaffelburg for Luc De Fougerolles
83'Canada
↑ Niko Sigur for Tajon Buchanan
87'Qatar
↑ Lucas Mendes for Ahmed Fathi
Match stats
79%Possession21%
30Shots2
10Shots on target0
4.11Expected goals0.18
18Corners1
8Fouls10
1Offsides1
0Saves4
91%Pass accuracy64%
Top performer
JDJonathan David
Canada · 3 goals
Lineups
Canada4-4-2
What's at stake
Matchday 2, Group B. The losing side here typically needs a Matchday 3 win plus favourable other-game results to advance.
Season form comparison
sample home 5 · away 3
1.80
Goals / match
0.67
1.20
Conceded / match
3.33
40%
BTTS rate
67%
40%
Clean sheet rate
0%
1.33
xG / match (club)
0.00
5.5
Corners / match
3.6
2.0
Yellows / match
1.9
52%
Possession
48%
Canada · last 5
Head to head · 2 meetings
2
Canada wins
0
Draws
0
Qatar wins
Last: Canada 6-0 Qatar (2026-06-18)avg 4.0 goals
Absences
model swing: 0 / 0 pp
Canada
No known absences.
Qatar
No known absences.
Win probability
Pre-match
The chart fills in from kickoff. We compute live win probability every 30 seconds.
Updated every 30s. Lines smoothed.
The model's read
High confidenceResult: Canada are strong favourites at 65%.
Goals: Goals expected. Over 2.5 lands 57% of the time.
Most likely score 2-0 (12%)
Why the model leans this way
Factor contributions
home←·→away
Rest days
-6.0%/+6.0%
Travel
-3.0%/0.0%
Club xG form
-1.0%/-4.0%
Set pieces
+1.2%/-1.4%
Two-model view
Second model api-football
Two models moderately agreeCanada
45%
Draw
45%
Qatar
10%
Their internal ratings (0-100)
50·
Form
·50
50·
Attack
·50
50·
Defence
·50
Their advice: Combo Double chance : Canada or draw and -3.5 goals
Surfaced for transparency. We don't blend api-football's numbers into our model — a second opinion, not a vote.
Key players to watch
Canada
No per-90 data for this squad yet.
Per-90 stats: Rising Transfers (risingtransfers.com), CC BY 4.0
Match analysis
Score-line probability
brighter = more likely
Canada goals
6
10
10
12
10
4
8
7
4
0123456
Qatar goals
Most likely: 2-0 12%, 1-1 10%, 1-0 10%. Outlined cells are draws.
Total goals
over 2.5 = 56%
60
131
242
223
174
105
76+
Brighter bars are 3+ goals (over 2.5). Dashed line is the O/U 2.5 split.
Team comparison
CanadaQatar
Percentile vs all 48 teams. Further out is stronger.
Fair odds for every market
How to use this
Fair odds is the lowest price worth taking. It is where a bet breaks even. If your bookmaker offers a bigger number than the fair odds here, the model says that's value. Shop around: the same bet is often priced differently across books.
Match result
Home win65%1.53
Draw22%4.61
Away win13%7.66
Double chance
Home or draw87%1.15
Home or away78%1.28
Draw or away35%2.88
Draw no bet
Home (DNB)83%1.20
Away (DNB)17%6.00
Total goals
Over 0.594%1.07
Under 0.56%15.61
Over 1.581%1.24
Under 1.519%5.14
Over 2.557%1.77
Under 2.543%2.31
Over 3.534%2.92
Under 3.566%1.52
Over 4.518%5.65
Under 4.582%1.21
Odd / even goals
Odd47%2.11
Even53%1.90
Exact total goals
0 goals6%15.61
1 goals13%7.67
2 goals24%4.18
3 goals22%4.47
4 goals17%6.05
5 goals10%10.24
6+ goals8%12.62
Both teams to score
Yes51%1.98
No49%2.02
Team totals
Home over 0.588%1.13
Home over 1.563%1.59
Home over 2.536%2.79
Away over 0.556%1.79
Away over 1.520%5.03
Away over 2.55%19.81
Clean sheet
Home clean sheet44%2.27
Away clean sheet12%8.43
Win to nil
Home win to nil38%2.66
Away win to nil5%18.33
Asian handicap (home)
Home -2.523%4.37
Home -1.543%2.30
Home -0.566%1.51
Home +0.588%1.14
Home +1.596%1.04
Home +2.599%1.01
Correct score (top 8)
2-012%8.43
1-110%9.69
1-010%10.06
2-110%10.27
3-08%11.86
3-17%14.45
0-06%15.61
4-04%22.26
Half-time result
Home49%2.03
Draw37%2.72
Away14%7.18
Half-time goals
Over 0.574%1.36
Under 0.526%3.78
Over 1.538%2.61
Under 1.562%1.62
Half-time / full-time
Home/Home45%2.24
Home/Draw4%26.29
Home/Away1%112.11
Draw/Home20%5.03
Draw/Draw12%8.61
Draw/Away5%19.11
Away/Home3%33.30
Away/Draw4%26.29
Away/Away7%14.06
Corners (match total)
IndicativeOver 8.556%1.80
Under 8.544%2.25
Over 9.542%2.36
Under 9.558%1.74
Over 10.530%3.28
Under 10.570%1.44
Over 11.521%4.86
Under 11.579%1.26
Over 12.513%7.64
Under 12.587%1.15
Expected total: 9.1
CA corners
IndicativeOver 3.578%1.29
Under 3.522%4.46
Over 4.561%1.63
Under 4.539%2.58
Over 5.544%2.28
Under 5.556%1.78
Over 6.528%3.52
Under 6.572%1.40
Expected total: 5.3
QA corners
IndicativeOver 3.552%1.91
Under 3.548%2.09
Over 4.533%3.04
Under 4.567%1.49
Over 5.518%5.50
Under 5.582%1.22
Over 6.59%11.22
Under 6.591%1.10
Expected total: 3.8
Yellow cards (match total)
IndicativeOver 2.574%1.34
Under 2.526%3.92
Over 3.554%1.84
Under 3.546%2.19
Over 4.535%2.86
Under 4.565%1.54
Over 5.520%5.06
Under 5.580%1.25
Expected total: 3.9
CA anytime goalscorer
Indicativelow sample (n=1)
N. Saliba (Midfielder)22%4.60
J. Leutwiler (?)19%5.21
L. Cavallini (?)19%5.21
D. Wotherspoon (?)19%5.21
H. Paton (?)19%5.21
A. Akinola (?)19%5.21
T. Ricketts (?)19%5.21
T. Borges (?)19%5.21
Expected total: 1.7
QA anytime goalscorer
Indicativelow sample (n=1)
Hassan Al Haydos (Attacker)25%4.05
Ahmed Alaa (Attacker)22%4.58
Almoez Ali (Attacker)22%4.58
Akram Afif (Attacker)22%4.58
Edmilson Junior (Attacker)22%4.58
Mohammed Muntari (Attacker)22%4.58
Ahmed Al Ganehi (Attacker)22%4.58
Tahsin Jamshid (Attacker)22%4.58
Expected total: 2.0
Probabilities and fair odds are derived from the model's full score-line distribution (expected goals: home 2.13, away 0.82). Half-time and HT/FT markets use a 45/55 first-half split. These are model estimates, not a betting guarantee.