Bosnia and Herzegovina vs Qatar

Group B · Matchday 3

· Lumen Field, Seattle

Group B standings →Bracket →BA 100% · QA 0% to advance

Bosnia and Herzegovina

55%

3–1

Qatar

19%

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Goals (4)

29'

K. Alajbegovic

Bosnia and Herzegovina

34'

M. Abunadaog

Bosnia and Herzegovina

42'

H. Al Haydos

Qatar

80'

E. Mahmic

Bosnia and Herzegovina

Cards (2)

78'

A. Fathi

Qatar

82'

E. Mahmic

Bosnia and Herzegovina

Substitutions (10)

46'

↑ A. Hatem for J. Gaber

Qatar

46'

↑ A. Memic for A. Malic

Bosnia and Herzegovina

46'

↑ B. Tahirovic for I. Sunjic

Bosnia and Herzegovina

56'

↑ A. Al Ganehi for H. Al Haydos

Qatar

63'

↑ D. Hadzikadunic for N. Katic

Bosnia and Herzegovina

64'

↑ E. Mahmic for E. Dzeko

Bosnia and Herzegovina

72'

↑ A. Ali for K. Boudiaf

Qatar

79'

↑ A. Alaaeldin for Edmilson Junior

Qatar

79'

↑ M. Al Mannai for A. Fathi

Qatar

82'

↑ D. Burnic for K. Alajbegovic

Bosnia and Herzegovina

Match stats

56%Possession44%

14Shots7

5Shots on target1

0.65Expected goals0.67

5Corners4

8Fouls13

1Offsides3

0Saves3

88%Pass accuracy85%

Top performer

K. Alajbegovic

Bosnia and Herzegovina · 1 goal

Lineups

Bosnia and Herzegovina4-4-2

Qatar4-3-3

What's at stake

Matchday 3, final group game. Both sides know the exact result they need.

Season form comparison

sample home 4 · away 3

1.25

Goals / match

0.67

2.00

Conceded / match

3.33

75%

BTTS rate

67%

Clean sheet rate

2.44

xG / match (club)

0.00

5.1

Corners / match

3.6

2.4

Yellows / match

1.9

51%

Possession

48%

Bosnia and Herzegovina · last 4

Canada1-112 June LA

Switzerland4-118 June WH

Qatar3-124 June LA

United States2-02 July

Qatar · last 3

Switzerland1-113 June LA

Canada6-018 June LA

Bosnia and Herzegovina3-124 June

Head to head · 1 meetings

Bosnia and Herzegovina wins

Draws

Qatar wins

Last: Bosnia & Herzegovina 0-0 Qatar (2026-06-24)avg 0.0 goals

Absences

model swing: 0 / 0 pp

Bosnia and Herzegovina

No known absences.

Qatar

No known absences.

Win probability

Pre-match

The chart fills in from kickoff. We compute live win probability every 30 seconds.

Updated every 30s. Lines smoothed.

The model's read

Medium confidence

Result: Bosnia and Herzegovina are slight favourites at 55%, but it is far from settled.
Goals: Goals are a coin-flip around the 2.5 line (over 50%).

Most likely score 1-1 (13%)

Why the model leans this way

Factor contributions

home←·→away

Rest days

-6.0%/+6.0%

Club xG form

+1.0%/-3.6%

Set pieces

+0.7%/-1.1%

Two-model view

Second model api-football

Two models moderately agree

Bosnia and Herzegovina

45%

Draw

45%

Qatar

10%

Their internal ratings (0-100)

50·

Form

·50

67·

Attack

·33

58·

Defence

·42

Their advice: Combo Double chance : Bosnia & Herzegovina or draw and +1.5 goals

Surfaced for transparency. We don't blend api-football's numbers into our model — a second opinion, not a vote.

Key players to watch

Bosnia and Herzegovina

No per-90 data for this squad yet.

Qatar

Per-90 stats: Rising Transfers (risingtransfers.com), CC BY 4.0

Match analysis

Score-line probability

brighter = more likely

Bosnia and Herzegovina goals

0123456

Qatar goals

Most likely: 1-1 13%, 1-0 11%, 2-0 11%. Outlined cells are draws.

Total goals

over 2.5 = 49%

Brighter bars are 3+ goals (over 2.5). Dashed line is the O/U 2.5 split.

Team comparison

Bosnia and HerzegovinaQatar

Percentile vs all 48 teams. Further out is stronger.

Fair odds for every market

How to use this

Fair odds is the lowest price worth taking. It is where a bet breaks even. If your bookmaker offers a bigger number than the fair odds here, the model says that's value. Shop around: the same bet is often priced differently across books.

Match result

Home win55%1.83

Draw26%3.77

Away win19%5.30

Double chance

Home or draw81%1.23

Home or away74%1.36

Draw or away45%2.20

Draw no bet

Home (DNB)74%1.35

Away (DNB)26%3.89

Total goals

Over 0.592%1.09

Under 0.58%11.79

Over 1.576%1.32

Under 1.524%4.13

Over 2.550%2.02

Under 2.550%1.98

Over 3.528%3.62

Under 3.572%1.38

Over 4.513%7.66

Under 4.587%1.15

Odd / even goals

Odd47%2.13

Even53%1.88

Exact total goals

0 goals8%11.79

1 goals16%6.34

2 goals26%3.81

3 goals22%4.56

4 goals15%6.87

5 goals8%12.94

6+ goals5%18.80

Both teams to score

Yes51%1.97

No49%2.03

Team totals

Home over 0.583%1.21

Home over 1.552%1.92

Home over 2.525%3.93

Away over 0.560%1.67

Away over 1.523%4.32

Away over 2.56%15.46

Clean sheet

Home clean sheet40%2.49

Away clean sheet17%5.72

Win to nil

Home win to nil32%3.15

Away win to nil9%11.11

Asian handicap (home)

Home -2.514%6.91

Home -1.532%3.12

Home -0.556%1.80

Home +0.582%1.22

Home +1.594%1.07

Home +2.598%1.02

Correct score (top 8)

1-113%7.92

1-011%9.25

2-011%9.35

2-110%10.27

0-08%11.79

3-06%16.09

3-16%17.66

1-25%19.66

Half-time result

Home41%2.42

Draw41%2.45

Away18%5.63

Half-time goals

Over 0.570%1.43

Under 0.530%3.30

Over 1.534%2.98

Under 1.566%1.50

Half-time / full-time

Home/Home36%2.80

Home/Draw4%22.50

Home/Away1%84.22

Draw/Home19%5.38

Draw/Draw15%6.84

Draw/Away8%13.10

Away/Home3%37.35

Away/Draw4%22.50

Away/Away11%9.39

Corners (match total)

Indicative

Over 8.549%2.03

Under 8.551%1.97

Over 9.536%2.76

Under 9.564%1.57

Over 10.525%4.01

Under 10.575%1.33

Over 11.516%6.20

Under 11.584%1.19

Over 12.510%10.20

Under 12.590%1.11

Expected total: 8.6

BA corners

Indicative

Over 3.571%1.41

Under 3.529%3.46

Over 4.553%1.89

Under 4.547%2.13

Over 5.535%2.82

Under 5.565%1.55

Over 6.521%4.68

Under 6.579%1.27

Expected total: 4.8

QA corners

Indicative

Over 3.552%1.91

Under 3.548%2.09

Over 4.533%3.04

Under 4.567%1.49

Over 5.518%5.50

Under 5.582%1.22

Over 6.59%11.22

Under 6.591%1.10

Expected total: 3.8

Yellow cards (match total)

Indicative

Over 2.576%1.31

Under 2.524%4.25

Over 3.557%1.75

Under 3.543%2.33

Over 4.538%2.67

Under 4.563%1.60

Over 5.522%4.59

Under 5.578%1.28

Expected total: 4.0

BA anytime goalscorer

Indicative

very low sample (n=0)

E. Džeko (Attacker)41%2.45

E. Bičakčić (?)16%6.25

B. Šerbečić (?)16%6.25

I. Hajrović (?)16%6.25

G. Cimirot (?)16%6.25

H. Hankič (?)16%6.25

M. Jajalo (?)16%6.25

Goran Zakarić (?)16%6.25

Expected total: 1.7

QA anytime goalscorer

Indicative

low sample (n=1)

Hassan Al Haydos (Attacker)27%3.71

Ahmed Alaa (Attacker)24%4.18

Almoez Ali (Attacker)24%4.18

Akram Afif (Attacker)24%4.18

Edmilson Junior (Attacker)24%4.18

Mohammed Muntari (Attacker)24%4.18

Ahmed Al Ganehi (Attacker)24%4.18

Tahsin Jamshid (Attacker)24%4.18

Expected total: 2.2

Probabilities and fair odds are derived from the model's full score-line distribution (expected goals: home 1.74, away 0.91). Half-time and HT/FT markets use a 45/55 first-half split. These are model estimates, not a betting guarantee.