South Africa vs Canada

Group null · Matchday 4

· SoFi Stadium, Los Angeles

Group standings →Bracket →ZA 100% · CA 100% to advance

South Africa

26%

FT

0–1

Canada

39%

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Goals (1)

90'

S. Eustaquio

Canada

Cards (2)

54'

N. Saliba

Canada
67'

N. Sigur

Canada

Substitutions (8)

46'

↑ T. Mbatha for R. Mofokeng

South Africa
59'

↑ L. De Fougerolles for M. Bombito

Canada
59'

↑ N. Sigur for N. Saliba

Canada
70'

↑ J. Shaffelburg for L. Millar

Canada
70'

↑ P. David for T. Oluwaseyi

Canada
75'

↑ A. Davies for T. Buchanan

Canada
86'

↑ I. Rayners for E. Makgopa

South Africa
86'

↑ T. Moremi for T. Maseko

South Africa

Match stats

58%Possession42%
6Shots12
1Shots on target7
0.13Expected goals1.32
1Corners4
9Fouls16
5Saves1
85%Pass accuracy79%

Top performer

SE

S. Eustaquio

Canada · 1 goal

Lineups

South Africa4-2-3-1

Canada4-4-2

What's at stake

Knockout fixture, single elimination.

Season form comparison

sample home 4 · away 5

0.50
Goals / match
1.80
1.00
Conceded / match
1.20
25%
BTTS rate
40%
25%
Clean sheet rate
40%
0.00
xG / match (club)
1.33
4.3
Corners / match
5.5
1.6
Yellows / match
2.0
54%
Possession
52%

Head to head · 1 meetings

0

South Africa wins

1

Draws

0

Canada wins

Last: South Africa 0-0 Canada (2026-06-28)avg 0.0 goals

Absences

model swing: 0 / 0 pp

South Africa

No known absences.

Canada

No known absences.

Win probability

Pre-match

The chart fills in from kickoff. We compute live win probability every 30 seconds.

Updated every 30s. Lines smoothed.

The model's read

Wide-open match

  • Result: An open match. Canada edge it at just 39%.

  • Goals: A low-scoring game looks likely. Under 2.5 is favoured (70%).

  • Both score: Expect at least one clean sheet. Both-teams-score is just 39%.

Most likely score 0-0 (17%)

Why the model leans this way

Factor contributions

home←·→away

Rest days
+6.0%/-6.0%
Travel
0.0%/-3.0%
Set pieces
-0.2%/+1.2%
Club xG form
-2.0%/-1.0%

Two-model view

Second model api-football

Two models moderately agree

South Africa

35%

Draw

35%

Canada

30%

Their internal ratings (0-100)

50·
Form
·50
20·
Attack
·80
50·
Defence
·50

Their advice: Double chance : South Africa or draw

Surfaced for transparency. We don't blend api-football's numbers into our model — a second opinion, not a vote.

Match analysis

Score-line probability

brighter = more likely

South Africa goals
17
14
9
10
15
7
5
5
0123456

Canada goals

Most likely: 0-0 17%, 1-1 15%, 0-1 14%. Outlined cells are draws.

Total goals

over 2.5 = 30%

17
0
25
1
29
2
17
3
8
4
3
5
1
6+

Brighter bars are 3+ goals (over 2.5). Dashed line is the O/U 2.5 split.

Team comparison

AttackDefenceRatingSet-pieceattackSet-piecedefence
South AfricaCanada

Percentile vs all 48 teams. Further out is stronger.

Fair odds for every market

How to use this

Fair odds is the lowest price worth taking. It is where a bet breaks even. If your bookmaker offers a bigger number than the fair odds here, the model says that's value. Shop around: the same bet is often priced differently across books.

Match result

Home win26%3.87
Draw35%2.87
Away win39%2.54

Double chance

Home or draw61%1.65
Home or away65%1.53
Draw or away74%1.35

Draw no bet

Home (DNB)40%2.52
Away (DNB)60%1.66

Total goals

Over 0.583%1.20
Under 0.517%6.01
Over 1.558%1.71
Under 1.542%2.41
Over 2.530%3.37
Under 2.570%1.42
Over 3.513%7.95
Under 3.587%1.14
Over 4.54%22.56
Under 4.596%1.05

Odd / even goals

Odd45%2.20
Even55%1.83

Exact total goals

0 goals17%6.01
1 goals25%4.01
2 goals29%3.48
3 goals17%5.84
4 goals8%12.27
5 goals3%32.24
6+ goals1%75.12

Both teams to score

Yes39%2.58
No61%1.63

Team totals

Home over 0.556%1.79
Home over 1.520%5.06
Home over 2.55%19.98
Away over 0.566%1.51
Away over 1.530%3.38
Away over 2.510%10.35

Clean sheet

Home clean sheet34%2.96
Away clean sheet44%2.27

Win to nil

Home win to nil17%5.83
Away win to nil28%3.64

Asian handicap (home)

Home -2.52%48.02
Home -1.59%11.47
Home -0.525%3.93
Home +0.560%1.66
Home +1.583%1.20
Home +2.595%1.06

Correct score (top 8)

0-017%6.01
1-115%6.69
0-114%6.92
1-010%9.54
0-29%11.39
1-27%13.93
2-15%18.47
2-05%20.04

Half-time result

Home21%4.87
Draw50%1.98
Away29%3.45

Half-time goals

Over 0.558%1.74
Under 0.542%2.35
Over 1.521%4.73
Under 1.579%1.27

Half-time / full-time

Home/Home15%6.77
Home/Draw4%23.28
Home/Away1%67.58
Draw/Home11%8.80
Draw/Draw23%4.39
Draw/Away16%6.14
Away/Home1%94.40
Away/Draw4%23.28
Away/Away24%4.23

Corners (match total)

Indicative
Over 8.564%1.57
Under 8.536%2.77
Over 9.551%1.96
Under 9.549%2.04
Over 10.539%2.59
Under 10.561%1.63
Over 11.528%3.63
Under 11.572%1.38
Over 12.519%5.39
Under 12.581%1.23

Expected total: 9.8

ZA corners

Indicative
Over 3.565%1.54
Under 3.535%2.84
Over 4.546%2.19
Under 4.554%1.84
Over 5.529%3.48
Under 5.571%1.40
Over 6.516%6.19
Under 6.584%1.19

Expected total: 4.4

CA corners

Indicative
Over 3.578%1.29
Under 3.522%4.46
Over 4.561%1.63
Under 4.539%2.58
Over 5.544%2.28
Under 5.556%1.78
Over 6.528%3.52
Under 6.572%1.40

Expected total: 5.3

Yellow cards (match total)

Indicative
Over 2.571%1.41
Under 2.529%3.46
Over 3.550%1.99
Under 3.550%2.01
Over 4.531%3.24
Under 4.569%1.45
Over 5.517%5.99
Under 5.583%1.20

Expected total: 3.7

ZA anytime goalscorer

Indicative

low sample (n=2)

T. Maseko (Attacker)25%4.07
I. Rayners (Attacker)22%4.60
O. Appollis (Attacker)22%4.60
E. Makgopa (Attacker)22%4.60
T. Mokoena (Midfielder)9%11.14
D. Keet (?)8%12.74
S. Hlanti (?)8%12.74
T. Hlatshwayo (?)8%12.74

Expected total: 1.4

CA anytime goalscorer

Indicative

low sample (n=1)

N. Saliba (Midfielder)12%8.53
J. Leutwiler (?)10%9.73
L. Cavallini (?)10%9.73
D. Wotherspoon (?)10%9.73
H. Paton (?)10%9.73
A. Akinola (?)10%9.73
T. Ricketts (?)10%9.73
T. Borges (?)10%9.73

Expected total: 0.9

Probabilities and fair odds are derived from the model's full score-line distribution (expected goals: home 0.82, away 1.08). Half-time and HT/FT markets use a 45/55 first-half split. These are model estimates, not a betting guarantee.