United States vs Bosnia and Herzegovina

Group null · Matchday 4

· Levi Stadium, Santa Clara

Group standings →Bracket →US 100% · BA 100% to advance

United States

53%

2–0

Bosnia and Herzegovina

21%

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Goals (2)

45'

F. Balogun

United States

82'

M. Tillman

United States

Cards (3)

64'

F. Balogun

United States

80'

S. Radeljic

Bosnia and Herzegovina

80'

S. Barbarez

Bosnia and Herzegovina

Substitutions (8)

51'

↑ E. Mahmic for E. Dzeko

Bosnia and Herzegovina

51'

↑ E. Bajraktarevic for A. Gigovic

Bosnia and Herzegovina

51'

↑ B. Tahirovic for I. Sunjic

Bosnia and Herzegovina

75'

↑ H. Tabakovic for S. Kolasinac

Bosnia and Herzegovina

75'

↑ A. Memic for N. Katic

Bosnia and Herzegovina

87'

↑ S. Berhalter for S. Dest

United States

88'

↑ R. Pepi for C. Pulisic

United States

95'

↑ G. Reyna for W. McKennie

United States

Match stats

49%Possession51%

8Shots8

2Shots on target3

0.88Expected goals0.21

4Corners3

7Fouls12

2Offsides0

3Saves0

84%Pass accuracy82%

Top performer

F. Balogun

United States · 1 goal

Lineups

United States4-2-3-1

Bosnia and Herzegovina3-4-1-2

What's at stake

Knockout fixture, single elimination.

Season form comparison

sample home 5 · away 4

2.20

Goals / match

1.25

1.60

Conceded / match

2.00

60%

BTTS rate

75%

40%

Clean sheet rate

2.51

xG / match (club)

2.44

6.1

Corners / match

5.1

1.2

Yellows / match

2.4

61%

Possession

51%

United States · last 5

Paraguay4-113 June WH

Australia2-019 June LA

Turkey3-226 June WH

Bosnia and Herzegovina2-02 July LH

Belgium1-47 July

Bosnia and Herzegovina · last 4

Canada1-112 June LA

Switzerland4-118 June WH

Qatar3-124 June LA

United States2-02 July

Head to head · 2 meetings

United States wins

Draws

Bosnia and Herzegovina wins

Last: USA 1-0 Bosnia & Herzegovina (2021-12-19)avg 0.5 goals

Absences

model swing: 0 / 0 pp

United States

No known absences.

Bosnia and Herzegovina

No known absences.

Win probability

Pre-match

The chart fills in from kickoff. We compute live win probability every 30 seconds.

Updated every 30s. Lines smoothed.

The model's read

Medium confidence

Result: United States are slight favourites at 53%, but it is far from settled.
Goals: Goals expected. Over 2.5 lands 57% of the time.
Both score: Both teams to score is likely (58%).

Most likely score 1-1 (12%)

Why the model leans this way

Factor contributions

home←·→away

Rest days

-6.0%/+6.0%

Club xG form

+1.6%/-1.4%

Set pieces

+1.0%/-0.1%

Two-model view

Second model api-football

Two-model consensus

United States

50%

Draw

50%

Bosnia and Herzegovina

Their internal ratings (0-100)

60·

Form

·40

62·

Attack

·38

60·

Defence

·40

Their advice: Combo Winner : USA and +1.5 goals

Surfaced for transparency. We don't blend api-football's numbers into our model — a second opinion, not a vote.

Match analysis

Score-line probability

brighter = more likely

United States goals

0123456

Bosnia and Herzegovina goals

Most likely: 1-1 12%, 2-1 10%, 2-0 9%. Outlined cells are draws.

Total goals

over 2.5 = 57%

Brighter bars are 3+ goals (over 2.5). Dashed line is the O/U 2.5 split.

Team comparison

United StatesBosnia and Herzegovina

Percentile vs all 48 teams. Further out is stronger.

Fair odds for every market

How to use this

Fair odds is the lowest price worth taking. It is where a bet breaks even. If your bookmaker offers a bigger number than the fair odds here, the model says that's value. Shop around: the same bet is often priced differently across books.

Match result

Home win53%1.88

Draw25%3.92

Away win21%4.69

Double chance

Home or draw79%1.27

Home or away75%1.34

Draw or away47%2.14

Draw no bet

Home (DNB)71%1.40

Away (DNB)29%3.49

Total goals

Over 0.594%1.07

Under 0.56%15.56

Over 1.581%1.23

Under 1.519%5.32

Over 2.557%1.75

Under 2.543%2.34

Over 3.535%2.87

Under 3.565%1.54

Over 4.518%5.50

Under 4.582%1.22

Odd / even goals

Odd47%2.12

Even53%1.89

Exact total goals

0 goals6%15.56

1 goals12%8.08

2 goals24%4.18

3 goals22%4.46

4 goals17%5.99

5 goals10%10.03

6+ goals8%12.16

Both teams to score

Yes58%1.73

No42%2.38

Team totals

Home over 0.585%1.18

Home over 1.556%1.78

Home over 2.529%3.43

Away over 0.567%1.50

Away over 1.530%3.32

Away over 2.510%10.02

Clean sheet

Home clean sheet33%3.01

Away clean sheet15%6.57

Win to nil

Home win to nil27%3.73

Away win to nil9%11.36

Asian handicap (home)

Home -2.515%6.61

Home -1.532%3.11

Home -0.554%1.84

Home +0.579%1.26

Home +1.592%1.09

Home +2.598%1.02

Correct score (top 8)

1-112%8.43

2-110%10.13

2-09%11.15

1-08%12.25

0-06%15.56

3-16%16.14

1-26%17.31

3-06%17.77

Half-time result

Home42%2.41

Draw38%2.61

Away20%4.95

Half-time goals

Over 0.574%1.35

Under 0.526%3.83

Over 1.539%2.58

Under 1.561%1.63

Half-time / full-time

Home/Home35%2.84

Home/Draw5%20.91

Home/Away2%64.32

Draw/Home17%5.77

Draw/Draw13%7.78

Draw/Away8%12.34

Away/Home3%32.28

Away/Draw5%20.91

Away/Away12%8.12

Corners (match total)

Indicative

Over 8.569%1.46

Under 8.531%3.18

Over 9.556%1.78

Under 9.544%2.28

Over 10.544%2.29

Under 10.556%1.78

Over 11.532%3.11

Under 11.568%1.47

Over 12.522%4.46

Under 12.578%1.29

Expected total: 10.2

US corners

Indicative

Over 3.578%1.29

Under 3.522%4.51

Over 4.562%1.63

Under 4.538%2.60

Over 5.544%2.27

Under 5.556%1.79

Over 6.529%3.48

Under 6.571%1.40

Expected total: 5.3

BA corners

Indicative

Over 3.571%1.41

Under 3.529%3.46

Over 4.553%1.89

Under 4.547%2.13

Over 5.535%2.82

Under 5.565%1.55

Over 6.521%4.68

Under 6.579%1.27

Expected total: 4.8

Yellow cards (match total)

Indicative

Over 2.571%1.41

Under 2.529%3.44

Over 3.550%2.00

Under 3.550%2.00

Over 4.531%3.26

Under 4.569%1.44

Over 5.517%6.03

Under 5.583%1.20

Expected total: 3.7

US anytime goalscorer

Indicative

very low sample (n=0)

J. Green (?)17%5.83

M. Fossey (?)17%5.83

A. Soñora (?)17%5.83

Chituru Ethan Odunze (?)17%5.83

J. Wynder (?)17%5.83

Expected total: 0.9

BA anytime goalscorer

Indicative

very low sample (n=0)

E. Džeko (Attacker)28%3.55

E. Bičakčić (?)10%9.59

B. Šerbečić (?)10%9.59

I. Hajrović (?)10%9.59

G. Cimirot (?)10%9.59

H. Hankič (?)10%9.59

M. Jajalo (?)10%9.59

Goran Zakarić (?)10%9.59

Expected total: 1.1

Probabilities and fair odds are derived from the model's full score-line distribution (expected goals: home 1.88, away 1.10). Half-time and HT/FT markets use a 45/55 first-half split. These are model estimates, not a betting guarantee.