All matches
United States vs Bosnia and Herzegovina
Group null · Matchday 4
· Levi Stadium, Santa Clara
Goals (2)
Cards (3)
64'
United States
F. Balogun
80'
Bosnia and Herzegovina
S. Radeljic
80'Bosnia and Herzegovina
S. Barbarez
Substitutions (8)
51'Bosnia and Herzegovina
↑ E. Mahmic for E. Dzeko
51'Bosnia and Herzegovina
↑ E. Bajraktarevic for A. Gigovic
51'Bosnia and Herzegovina
↑ B. Tahirovic for I. Sunjic
75'Bosnia and Herzegovina
↑ H. Tabakovic for S. Kolasinac
75'Bosnia and Herzegovina
↑ A. Memic for N. Katic
87'United States
↑ S. Berhalter for S. Dest
88'United States
↑ R. Pepi for C. Pulisic
95'United States
↑ G. Reyna for W. McKennie
Match stats
49%Possession51%
8Shots8
2Shots on target3
0.88Expected goals0.21
4Corners3
7Fouls12
2Offsides0
3Saves0
84%Pass accuracy82%
Top performer
FBF. Balogun
United States · 1 goal
Lineups
United States4-2-3-1
Bosnia and Herzegovina3-4-1-2
What's at stake
Knockout fixture, single elimination.
Season form comparison
sample home 5 · away 4
2.20
Goals / match
1.25
1.60
Conceded / match
2.00
60%
BTTS rate
75%
40%
Clean sheet rate
0%
2.51
xG / match (club)
2.44
6.1
Corners / match
5.1
1.2
Yellows / match
2.4
61%
Possession
51%
United States · last 5
Bosnia and Herzegovina · last 4
Head to head · 2 meetings
1
United States wins
1
Draws
0
Bosnia and Herzegovina wins
Last: USA 1-0 Bosnia & Herzegovina (2021-12-19)avg 0.5 goals
Absences
model swing: 0 / 0 pp
United States
No known absences.
Bosnia and Herzegovina
No known absences.
Win probability
Pre-match
The chart fills in from kickoff. We compute live win probability every 30 seconds.
Updated every 30s. Lines smoothed.
The model's read
Medium confidenceResult: United States are slight favourites at 53%, but it is far from settled.
Goals: Goals expected. Over 2.5 lands 57% of the time.
Both score: Both teams to score is likely (58%).
Most likely score 1-1 (12%)
Why the model leans this way
Factor contributions
home←·→away
Rest days
-6.0%/+6.0%
Club xG form
+1.6%/-1.4%
Set pieces
+1.0%/-0.1%
Two-model view
Second model api-football
Two-model consensusUnited States
50%
Draw
50%
Bosnia and Herzegovina
0%
Their internal ratings (0-100)
60·
Form
·40
62·
Attack
·38
60·
Defence
·40
Their advice: Combo Winner : USA and +1.5 goals
Surfaced for transparency. We don't blend api-football's numbers into our model — a second opinion, not a vote.
Match analysis
Score-line probability
brighter = more likely
United States goals
6
4
8
12
6
9
10
5
6
6
0123456
Bosnia and Herzegovina goals
Most likely: 1-1 12%, 2-1 10%, 2-0 9%. Outlined cells are draws.
Total goals
over 2.5 = 57%
60
121
242
223
174
105
86+
Brighter bars are 3+ goals (over 2.5). Dashed line is the O/U 2.5 split.
Team comparison
United StatesBosnia and Herzegovina
Percentile vs all 48 teams. Further out is stronger.
Fair odds for every market
How to use this
Fair odds is the lowest price worth taking. It is where a bet breaks even. If your bookmaker offers a bigger number than the fair odds here, the model says that's value. Shop around: the same bet is often priced differently across books.
Match result
Home win53%1.88
Draw25%3.92
Away win21%4.69
Double chance
Home or draw79%1.27
Home or away75%1.34
Draw or away47%2.14
Draw no bet
Home (DNB)71%1.40
Away (DNB)29%3.49
Total goals
Over 0.594%1.07
Under 0.56%15.56
Over 1.581%1.23
Under 1.519%5.32
Over 2.557%1.75
Under 2.543%2.34
Over 3.535%2.87
Under 3.565%1.54
Over 4.518%5.50
Under 4.582%1.22
Odd / even goals
Odd47%2.12
Even53%1.89
Exact total goals
0 goals6%15.56
1 goals12%8.08
2 goals24%4.18
3 goals22%4.46
4 goals17%5.99
5 goals10%10.03
6+ goals8%12.16
Both teams to score
Yes58%1.73
No42%2.38
Team totals
Home over 0.585%1.18
Home over 1.556%1.78
Home over 2.529%3.43
Away over 0.567%1.50
Away over 1.530%3.32
Away over 2.510%10.02
Clean sheet
Home clean sheet33%3.01
Away clean sheet15%6.57
Win to nil
Home win to nil27%3.73
Away win to nil9%11.36
Asian handicap (home)
Home -2.515%6.61
Home -1.532%3.11
Home -0.554%1.84
Home +0.579%1.26
Home +1.592%1.09
Home +2.598%1.02
Correct score (top 8)
1-112%8.43
2-110%10.13
2-09%11.15
1-08%12.25
0-06%15.56
3-16%16.14
1-26%17.31
3-06%17.77
Half-time result
Home42%2.41
Draw38%2.61
Away20%4.95
Half-time goals
Over 0.574%1.35
Under 0.526%3.83
Over 1.539%2.58
Under 1.561%1.63
Half-time / full-time
Home/Home35%2.84
Home/Draw5%20.91
Home/Away2%64.32
Draw/Home17%5.77
Draw/Draw13%7.78
Draw/Away8%12.34
Away/Home3%32.28
Away/Draw5%20.91
Away/Away12%8.12
Corners (match total)
IndicativeOver 8.569%1.46
Under 8.531%3.18
Over 9.556%1.78
Under 9.544%2.28
Over 10.544%2.29
Under 10.556%1.78
Over 11.532%3.11
Under 11.568%1.47
Over 12.522%4.46
Under 12.578%1.29
Expected total: 10.2
US corners
IndicativeOver 3.578%1.29
Under 3.522%4.51
Over 4.562%1.63
Under 4.538%2.60
Over 5.544%2.27
Under 5.556%1.79
Over 6.529%3.48
Under 6.571%1.40
Expected total: 5.3
BA corners
IndicativeOver 3.571%1.41
Under 3.529%3.46
Over 4.553%1.89
Under 4.547%2.13
Over 5.535%2.82
Under 5.565%1.55
Over 6.521%4.68
Under 6.579%1.27
Expected total: 4.8
Yellow cards (match total)
IndicativeOver 2.571%1.41
Under 2.529%3.44
Over 3.550%2.00
Under 3.550%2.00
Over 4.531%3.26
Under 4.569%1.44
Over 5.517%6.03
Under 5.583%1.20
Expected total: 3.7
US anytime goalscorer
Indicativevery low sample (n=0)
J. Green (?)17%5.83
M. Fossey (?)17%5.83
A. Soñora (?)17%5.83
Chituru Ethan Odunze (?)17%5.83
J. Wynder (?)17%5.83
Expected total: 0.9
BA anytime goalscorer
Indicativevery low sample (n=0)
E. Džeko (Attacker)28%3.55
E. Bičakčić (?)10%9.59
B. Šerbečić (?)10%9.59
I. Hajrović (?)10%9.59
G. Cimirot (?)10%9.59
H. Hankič (?)10%9.59
M. Jajalo (?)10%9.59
Goran Zakarić (?)10%9.59
Expected total: 1.1
Probabilities and fair odds are derived from the model's full score-line distribution (expected goals: home 1.88, away 1.10). Half-time and HT/FT markets use a 45/55 first-half split. These are model estimates, not a betting guarantee.