Portugal vs Spain

Group null · Matchday 5

· AT&T Stadium, Dallas

Group standings →Bracket →PT 100% · ES 100% to advance

Portugal

22%

FT

0–1

Spain

44%

Share card

Goals (1)

91'

M. Merino

assist: F. Torres

Spain

Cards (3)

89'

B. Silva

Portugal
94'

R. Veiga

Portugal
98'

F. Torres

Spain

Substitutions (9)

56'

↑ N. Semedo for N. Mendes

Portugal
71'

↑ R. Leao for Joao Felix

Portugal
71'

↑ D. Dalot for J. Cancelo

Portugal
75'

↑ F. Torres for A. Baena

Spain
83'

↑ F. Conceicao for P. Neto

Portugal
83'

↑ B. Silva for Vitinha

Portugal
85'

↑ F. Ruiz for Pedri

Spain
85'

↑ M. Merino for D. Olmo

Spain
97'

↑ B. Iglesias for M. Oyarzabal

Spain

Match stats

44%Possession56%
9Shots15
2Shots on target6
3Corners7
9Fouls13
2Offsides1
5Saves2

Top performer

MM

M. Merino

Spain · 1 goal

Lineups

Portugal4-2-3-1

Spain4-1-2-3

What's at stake

Knockout fixture, single elimination.

Season form comparison

sample home 5 · away 8

1.60
Goals / match
1.75
0.60
Conceded / match
0.12
40%
BTTS rate
12%
40%
Clean sheet rate
88%
3.07
xG / match (club)
2.70
7.1
Corners / match
6.3
1.7
Yellows / match
1.8
66%
Possession
68%

Head to head · 9 meetings

0

Portugal wins

7

Draws

2

Spain wins

Last: Portugal 2-2 Spain (2025-06-08)avg 1.6 goals

Absences

model swing: 0 / 0 pp

Portugal

No known absences.

Spain

No known absences.

Win probability

Pre-match

The chart fills in from kickoff. We compute live win probability every 30 seconds.

Updated every 30s. Lines smoothed.

The model's read

Wide-open match

  • Result: An open match. Spain edge it at just 44%.

  • Goals: A low-scoring game looks likely. Under 2.5 is favoured (69%).

  • Both score: Expect at least one clean sheet. Both-teams-score is just 38%.

Most likely score 0-0 (16%)

Why the model leans this way

Factor contributions

home←·→away

Rest days
+6.0%/-6.0%
Head-to-head
-1.5%/+1.5%
Set pieces
+0.6%/-1.1%
Club xG form
+0.4%/-0.8%

Two-model view

Second model api-football

Two models moderately agree

Portugal

10%

Draw

45%

Spain

45%

Their internal ratings (0-100)

44·
Form
·56
50·
Attack
·50
0·
Defence
·100

Their advice: Combo Double chance : draw or Spain and -3.5 goals

Surfaced for transparency. We don't blend api-football's numbers into our model — a second opinion, not a vote.

Key players to watch

Spain

No per-90 data for this squad yet.

Per-90 stats: Rising Transfers (risingtransfers.com), CC BY 4.0

Match analysis

Score-line probability

brighter = more likely

Portugal goals
16
15
10
4
9
14
8
4
5
0123456

Spain goals

Most likely: 0-0 16%, 0-1 15%, 1-1 14%. Outlined cells are draws.

Total goals

over 2.5 = 31%

16
0
25
1
29
2
17
3
8
4
3
5
1
6+

Brighter bars are 3+ goals (over 2.5). Dashed line is the O/U 2.5 split.

Team comparison

AttackDefenceRatingSet-pieceattackSet-piecedefence
PortugalSpain

Percentile vs all 48 teams. Further out is stronger.

Fair odds for every market

How to use this

Fair odds is the lowest price worth taking. It is where a bet breaks even. If your bookmaker offers a bigger number than the fair odds here, the model says that's value. Shop around: the same bet is often priced differently across books.

Match result

Home win22%4.52
Draw34%2.97
Away win44%2.26

Double chance

Home or draw56%1.79
Home or away66%1.51
Draw or away78%1.28

Draw no bet

Home (DNB)33%3.00
Away (DNB)67%1.50

Total goals

Over 0.584%1.19
Under 0.516%6.22
Over 1.559%1.68
Under 1.541%2.46
Over 2.531%3.26
Under 2.569%1.44
Over 3.513%7.58
Under 3.587%1.15
Over 4.55%21.17
Under 4.595%1.05

Odd / even goals

Odd46%2.19
Even54%1.84

Exact total goals

0 goals16%6.22
1 goals25%4.07
2 goals29%3.48
3 goals17%5.72
4 goals8%11.82
5 goals3%30.48
6+ goals1%69.31

Both teams to score

Yes38%2.61
No62%1.62

Team totals

Home over 0.553%1.90
Home over 1.517%5.80
Home over 2.54%24.93
Away over 0.570%1.44
Away over 1.533%2.99
Away over 2.512%8.43

Clean sheet

Home clean sheet30%3.29
Away clean sheet47%2.11

Win to nil

Home win to nil14%6.98
Away win to nil31%3.19

Asian handicap (home)

Home -2.52%66.53
Home -1.57%14.59
Home -0.521%4.65
Home +0.555%1.81
Home +1.580%1.26
Home +2.593%1.07

Correct score (top 8)

0-016%6.22
0-115%6.46
1-114%6.91
0-210%9.79
1-09%11.00
1-28%13.11
2-15%20.90
0-34%24.66

Half-time result

Home18%5.50
Draw50%2.01
Away32%3.11

Half-time goals

Over 0.558%1.72
Under 0.542%2.39
Over 1.522%4.60
Under 1.578%1.28

Half-time / full-time

Home/Home12%8.06
Home/Draw4%24.04
Home/Away2%62.26
Draw/Home10%10.17
Draw/Draw22%4.54
Draw/Away18%5.61
Away/Home1%108.20
Away/Draw4%24.04
Away/Away27%3.69

Corners (match total)

Indicative
Over 8.592%1.09
Under 8.58%12.19
Over 9.586%1.16
Under 9.514%7.15
Over 10.578%1.28
Under 10.522%4.60
Over 11.569%1.45
Under 11.531%3.21
Over 12.558%1.72
Under 12.542%2.39

Expected total: 13.4

PT corners

Indicative
Over 3.591%1.10
Under 3.59%11.09
Over 4.581%1.23
Under 4.519%5.33
Over 5.568%1.47
Under 5.532%3.12
Over 6.553%1.90
Under 6.547%2.11

Expected total: 6.8

ES corners

Indicative
Over 3.589%1.12
Under 3.511%9.36
Over 4.578%1.27
Under 4.522%4.64
Over 5.564%1.56
Under 5.536%2.79
Over 6.549%2.06
Under 6.551%1.94

Expected total: 6.6

Yellow cards (match total)

Indicative
Over 2.562%1.62
Under 2.538%2.62
Over 3.540%2.53
Under 3.560%1.65
Over 4.522%4.59
Under 4.578%1.28
Over 5.510%9.58
Under 5.590%1.12

Expected total: 3.2

PT anytime goalscorer

Indicative

very low sample (n=0)

João Félix (Attacker)20%4.98
Raphaël Guerreiro (?)7%13.89
João Mário (?)7%13.89
Mário Rui (?)7%13.89
Pepe (?)7%13.89
Diogo Leite (?)7%13.89
Éderzito António Macedo Lopes (?)7%13.89
Bruno Varela (?)7%13.89

Expected total: 0.8

ES anytime goalscorer

Indicative

very low sample (n=0)

Paco Alcácer (?)11%8.90
Jordi Alba (?)11%8.90
Sergi Roberto (?)11%8.90
Sergio Busquets (?)11%8.90
Raúl Albiol (?)11%8.90
Dani Carvajal (?)11%8.90
Nacho (?)11%8.90
Dani Ceballos (?)11%8.90

Expected total: 0.9

Probabilities and fair odds are derived from the model's full score-line distribution (expected goals: home 0.75, away 1.19). Half-time and HT/FT markets use a 45/55 first-half split. These are model estimates, not a betting guarantee.