Argentina vs Switzerland

Group null · Matchday 6

· GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City

Group standings →Bracket →AR 100% · CH 100% to advance

Argentina

58%

FT

3–1

Switzerland

16%

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Goals (3)

10'

A. Mac Allister

assist: L. Messi

Argentina
67'

D. Ndoye

assist: R. Rodriguez

Switzerland
112'

J. Alvarez

Argentina

Cards (6)

44'

B. Embolo

Switzerland
72'

B. Embolo

Switzerland
72'

B. Embolo

Switzerland
97'

T. Almada

Argentina
98'

L. Martinez

Argentina
114'

J. Lopez

Argentina

Substitutions (12)

78'

↑ N. Gonzalez for N. Tagliafico

Argentina
85'

↑ L. Martinez for R. de Paul

Argentina
85'

↑ G. Montiel for N. Molina

Argentina
86'

↑ S. Widmer for D. Sow

Switzerland
86'

↑ Z. Amdouni for D. Ndoye

Switzerland
86'

↑ M. Muheim for F. Rieder

Switzerland
95'

↑ E. Comert for R. Rodriguez

Switzerland
91'

↑ T. Almada for E. Fernandez

Argentina
96'

↑ A. Jashari for D. Zakaria

Switzerland
106'

↑ N. Otamendi for C. Romero

Argentina
110'

↑ J. Lopez for L. Paredes

Argentina
115'

↑ R. Vargas for R. Freuler

Switzerland

Match stats

59%Possession41%
22Shots11
7Shots on target5
1.96Expected goals0.53
8Corners2
14Fouls18
4Offsides3
4Saves4
89%Pass accuracy84%

Top performer

AM

A. Mac Allister

Argentina · 1 goal

Lineups

Argentina4-1-3-2

Switzerland4-2-3-1

What's at stake

Knockout fixture, single elimination.

Season form comparison

sample home 8 · away 6

2.38
Goals / match
1.67
1.00
Conceded / match
1.00
62%
BTTS rate
67%
25%
Clean sheet rate
33%
2.22
xG / match (club)
1.18
5.3
Corners / match
5.4
1.4
Yellows / match
1.9
61%
Possession
60%

Head to head · 1 meetings

1

Argentina wins

0

Draws

0

Switzerland wins

Last: Argentina 1-0 Switzerland (2014-07-01)avg 1.0 goals

Absences

model swing: 0 / 0 pp

Argentina

No known absences.

Switzerland

No known absences.

Win probability

Pre-match

The chart fills in from kickoff. We compute live win probability every 30 seconds.

Updated every 30s. Lines smoothed.

The model's read

Medium confidence

  • Result: Argentina are slight favourites at 58%, but it is far from settled.

  • Goals: Goals are a coin-flip around the 2.5 line (over 47%).

Most likely score 1-0 (12%)

Why the model leans this way

Factor contributions

home←·→away

Rest days
-6.0%/+6.0%
Club xG form
-1.9%/-4.2%

Two-model view

Second model api-football

Two models moderately agree

Argentina

45%

Draw

45%

Switzerland

10%

Their internal ratings (0-100)

58·
Form
·42
61·
Attack
·39
38·
Defence
·63

Their advice: Double chance : Argentina or draw

Surfaced for transparency. We don't blend api-football's numbers into our model — a second opinion, not a vote.

Match analysis

Score-line probability

brighter = more likely

Argentina goals
9
5
12
12
4
12
10
7
6
0123456

Switzerland goals

Most likely: 1-0 12%, 1-1 12%, 2-0 12%. Outlined cells are draws.

Total goals

over 2.5 = 47%

9
0
17
1
27
2
22
3
14
4
7
5
4
6+

Brighter bars are 3+ goals (over 2.5). Dashed line is the O/U 2.5 split.

Team comparison

AttackDefenceRatingSet-pieceattackSet-piecedefence
ArgentinaSwitzerland

Percentile vs all 48 teams. Further out is stronger.

Fair odds for every market

How to use this

Fair odds is the lowest price worth taking. It is where a bet breaks even. If your bookmaker offers a bigger number than the fair odds here, the model says that's value. Shop around: the same bet is often priced differently across books.

Match result

Home win58%1.71
Draw26%3.86
Away win16%6.35

Double chance

Home or draw84%1.19
Home or away74%1.35
Draw or away42%2.40

Draw no bet

Home (DNB)79%1.27
Away (DNB)21%4.71

Total goals

Over 0.591%1.10
Under 0.59%10.84
Over 1.574%1.36
Under 1.526%3.80
Over 2.547%2.13
Under 2.553%1.88
Over 3.525%3.95
Under 3.575%1.34
Over 4.512%8.66
Under 4.588%1.13

Odd / even goals

Odd47%2.13
Even53%1.88

Exact total goals

0 goals9%10.84
1 goals17%5.84
2 goals27%3.73
3 goals22%4.64
4 goals14%7.27
5 goals7%14.27
6+ goals5%22.04

Both teams to score

Yes46%2.15
No54%1.87

Team totals

Home over 0.583%1.21
Home over 1.553%1.90
Home over 2.526%3.84
Away over 0.554%1.84
Away over 1.519%5.40
Away over 2.55%22.22

Clean sheet

Home clean sheet46%2.19
Away clean sheet17%5.85

Win to nil

Home win to nil36%2.74
Away win to nil8%12.69

Asian handicap (home)

Home -2.516%6.21
Home -1.535%2.86
Home -0.559%1.68
Home +0.585%1.17
Home +1.595%1.05
Home +2.599%1.01

Correct score (top 8)

1-012%8.07
1-112%8.19
2-012%8.20
2-110%10.48
0-09%10.84
3-07%13.94
3-16%17.80
0-15%21.21

Half-time result

Home43%2.30
Draw41%2.42
Away15%6.55

Half-time goals

Over 0.568%1.47
Under 0.532%3.15
Over 1.532%3.14
Under 1.568%1.47

Half-time / full-time

Home/Home38%2.60
Home/Draw4%24.67
Home/Away1%108.63
Draw/Home20%5.05
Draw/Draw15%6.72
Draw/Away7%15.14
Away/Home3%39.70
Away/Draw4%24.67
Away/Away9%11.51

Corners (match total)

Indicative
Over 8.576%1.32
Under 8.524%4.09
Over 9.564%1.55
Under 9.536%2.81
Over 10.552%1.91
Under 10.548%2.10
Over 11.540%2.47
Under 11.560%1.68
Over 12.530%3.37
Under 12.570%1.42

Expected total: 10.9

AR corners

Indicative
Over 3.575%1.33
Under 3.525%4.02
Over 4.558%1.72
Under 4.542%2.38
Over 5.540%2.47
Under 5.560%1.68
Over 6.526%3.92
Under 6.574%1.34

Expected total: 5.1

CH corners

Indicative
Over 3.582%1.21
Under 3.518%5.71
Over 4.568%1.47
Under 4.532%3.12
Over 5.551%1.95
Under 5.549%2.05
Over 6.535%2.83
Under 6.565%1.55

Expected total: 5.8

Yellow cards (match total)

Indicative
Over 2.571%1.41
Under 2.529%3.44
Over 3.550%2.00
Under 3.550%2.00
Over 4.531%3.26
Under 4.569%1.44
Over 5.517%6.03
Under 5.583%1.20

Expected total: 3.7

AR anytime goalscorer

Indicative

very low sample (n=0)

N. González (Attacker)41%2.43
J. Foyth (?)16%6.18
S. Agüero (?)16%6.18
P. Dybala (?)16%6.18
E. Andrada (?)16%6.18
P. Gómez (?)16%6.18
N. Valentini (?)16%6.18
T. Geralnik (?)16%6.18

Expected total: 1.8

CH anytime goalscorer

Indicative

very low sample (n=0)

H. Seferović (?)8%13.28
K. Mbabu (?)8%13.28
M. Gavranović (?)8%13.28
S. Lichtsteiner (?)8%13.28
Y. Sommer (?)8%13.28
T. Klose (?)8%13.28
M. Lang (?)8%13.28
R. Freuler (Midfielder)8%13.28

Expected total: 0.6

Probabilities and fair odds are derived from the model's full score-line distribution (expected goals: home 1.77, away 0.78). Half-time and HT/FT markets use a 45/55 first-half split. These are model estimates, not a betting guarantee.