Team
South Korea vs Czechia
Group A · Matchday 1
· Estadio Akron, Guadalajara
Goals (3)
Cards (1)
96'
South Korea
Gi-Hyuk Lee
Substitutions (9)
62'South Korea
↑ Hwang Hee-Chan for Lee Jae-Sung
64'
Czechia
↑ A. Hlozek for P. Sulc
64'Czechia
↑ T. Chory for P. Schick
64'Czechia
↑ M. Sadilek for L. Provod
69'South Korea
↑ Oh Hyeon-Gyu for Son Heung-Min
69'South Korea
↑ Eom Ji-Sung for Lee Tae-Seok
84'South Korea
↑ Kim Jin-Gyu for Hwang In-Beom
84'South Korea
↑ Park Jin-Seob for Paik Seung-Ho
84'Czechia
↑ M. Chytil for A. Sojka
Match stats
62%Possession38%
15Shots7
6Shots on target4
2.30Expected goals0.83
4Corners5
9Fouls16
2Offsides2
3Saves4
87%Pass accuracy70%
Top performer
HIHwang In-Beom
South Korea · 1 goal
Lineups
South Korea3-4-2-1
What's at stake
Matchday 1, Group A opener. A win swings ~30 percentage points of qualification odds.
Season form comparison
sample home 3 · away 3
0.67
Goals / match
0.67
1.00
Conceded / match
2.00
33%
BTTS rate
67%
0%
Clean sheet rate
0%
0.69
xG / match (club)
1.98
6.9
Corners / match
5.2
1.4
Yellows / match
1.8
64%
Possession
50%
South Korea · last 3
Head to head · 1 meetings
1
South Korea wins
0
Draws
0
Czechia wins
Last: South Korea 2-1 Czechia (2026-06-12)avg 3.0 goals
Absences
model swing: 0 / 0 pp
South Korea
No known absences.
Czechia
No known absences.
Win probability
Pre-match
The chart fills in from kickoff. We compute live win probability every 30 seconds.
Updated every 30s. Lines smoothed.
The model's read
Wide-open matchResult: An open match. South Korea edge it at just 39%.
Goals: A low-scoring game looks likely. Under 2.5 is favoured (58%).
Most likely score 1-1 (15%)
Why the model leans this way
Factor contributions
home←·→away
Club xG form
-5.0%/+1.2%
Set pieces
-0.4%/+1.0%
Two-model view
Second model api-football
Two-model consensusSouth Korea
33%
Draw
33%
Czechia
33%
Their internal ratings (0-100)
0·
Form
·0
0·
Attack
·0
0·
Defence
·0
Their advice: No predictions available
Surfaced for transparency. We don't blend api-football's numbers into our model — a second opinion, not a vote.
Key players to watch
South Korea
Czechia
No per-90 data for this squad yet.
Per-90 stats: Rising Transfers (risingtransfers.com), CC BY 4.0
Match analysis
Score-line probability
brighter = more likely
South Korea goals
11
9
6
10
15
7
8
8
4
0123456
Czechia goals
Most likely: 1-1 15%, 0-0 11%, 1-0 10%. Outlined cells are draws.
Total goals
over 2.5 = 42%
110
191
282
213
124
65
36+
Brighter bars are 3+ goals (over 2.5). Dashed line is the O/U 2.5 split.
Team comparison
South KoreaCzechia
Percentile vs all 48 teams. Further out is stronger.
Fair odds for every market
How to use this
Fair odds is the lowest price worth taking. It is where a bet breaks even. If your bookmaker offers a bigger number than the fair odds here, the model says that's value. Shop around: the same bet is often priced differently across books.
Match result
Home win39%2.59
Draw31%3.20
Away win30%3.32
Double chance
Home or draw70%1.43
Home or away69%1.46
Draw or away61%1.63
Draw no bet
Home (DNB)56%1.78
Away (DNB)44%2.28
Total goals
Over 0.589%1.13
Under 0.511%8.87
Over 1.570%1.44
Under 1.530%3.30
Over 2.542%2.40
Under 2.558%1.71
Over 3.521%4.76
Under 3.579%1.27
Over 4.59%11.21
Under 4.591%1.10
Odd / even goals
Odd46%2.17
Even54%1.86
Exact total goals
0 goals11%8.87
1 goals19%5.25
2 goals28%3.56
3 goals21%4.85
4 goals12%8.27
5 goals6%17.64
6+ goals3%30.75
Both teams to score
Yes49%2.04
No51%1.97
Team totals
Home over 0.572%1.39
Home over 1.536%2.77
Home over 2.513%7.43
Away over 0.566%1.51
Away over 1.529%3.40
Away over 2.510%10.42
Clean sheet
Home clean sheet34%2.95
Away clean sheet28%3.54
Win to nil
Home win to nil23%4.42
Away win to nil17%5.89
Asian handicap (home)
Home -2.56%16.08
Home -1.518%5.55
Home -0.539%2.58
Home +0.570%1.43
Home +1.588%1.14
Home +2.596%1.04
Correct score (top 8)
1-115%6.76
0-011%8.87
1-010%9.61
0-19%11.55
2-18%12.08
2-08%13.07
1-27%14.12
0-26%17.84
Half-time result
Home30%3.32
Draw45%2.22
Away25%4.04
Half-time goals
Over 0.565%1.53
Under 0.535%2.87
Over 1.528%3.51
Under 1.572%1.40
Half-time / full-time
Home/Home24%4.23
Home/Draw5%20.45
Home/Away2%61.49
Draw/Home15%6.71
Draw/Draw18%5.52
Draw/Away12%8.26
Away/Home2%50.80
Away/Draw5%20.45
Away/Away18%5.60
Corners (match total)
IndicativeOver 8.586%1.16
Under 8.514%7.38
Over 9.578%1.28
Under 9.522%4.63
Over 10.568%1.46
Under 10.532%3.17
Over 11.557%1.74
Under 11.543%2.35
Over 12.546%2.17
Under 12.554%1.85
Expected total: 12.3
KR corners
IndicativeOver 3.590%1.11
Under 3.510%9.85
Over 4.579%1.26
Under 4.521%4.84
Over 5.565%1.53
Under 5.535%2.89
Over 6.550%2.01
Under 6.550%1.99
Expected total: 6.7
CZ corners
IndicativeOver 3.582%1.23
Under 3.518%5.42
Over 4.567%1.50
Under 4.533%3.00
Over 5.550%2.01
Under 5.550%1.99
Over 6.534%2.95
Under 6.566%1.51
Expected total: 5.7
Yellow cards (match total)
IndicativeOver 2.561%1.64
Under 2.539%2.57
Over 3.539%2.58
Under 3.561%1.63
Over 4.521%4.72
Under 4.579%1.27
Over 5.510%9.94
Under 5.590%1.11
Expected total: 3.2
KR anytime goalscorer
Indicativevery low sample (n=0)
Lee Dong-Gyeong (Attacker)32%3.17
Gu Sung-Yun (?)12%8.42
Hong Chul (?)12%8.42
Jung Seung-Hyun (?)12%8.42
Kim Jin-Su (?)12%8.42
Kim Young-Gwon (?)12%8.42
Kwon Kyung-Won (?)12%8.42
Park Ji-Soo (?)12%8.42
Expected total: 1.3
CZ anytime goalscorer
Indicativevery low sample (n=0)
T. Gebre Selassie (?)10%9.75
M. Rabušic (?)10%9.75
A. Barák (?)10%9.75
A. Matějů (?)10%9.75
P. Schwarz (?)10%9.75
P. Stronati (?)10%9.75
A. Jánoš (?)10%9.75
Expected total: 0.8
Probabilities and fair odds are derived from the model's full score-line distribution (expected goals: home 1.26, away 1.08). Half-time and HT/FT markets use a 45/55 first-half split. These are model estimates, not a betting guarantee.