United States vs Paraguay

Group D · Matchday 1

· SoFi Stadium, Los Angeles

Group D standings →Bracket →US 100% · PY 100% to advance

United States

44%

4–1

HT 3–0

Paraguay

24%

Share card

Goals (5)

D. Bobadillaog

United States

31'

F. Balogun

assist: C. Pulisic

United States

45'

F. Balogun

assist: M. Tillman

United States

73'

Mauricio

assist: J. Enciso

Paraguay

90'

G. Reyna

assist: A. Freeman

United States

Cards (6)

10'

Juan Cáceres

Paraguay

53'

Miguel Almirón

Paraguay

59'

Tyler Adams

United States

79'

Diego Gómez

Paraguay

88'

Alex Arce

Paraguay

93'

Junior Alonso

Paraguay

Substitutions (9)

46'

↑ S. Berhalter for C. Pulisic

United States

46'

↑ Mauricio for D. Bobadilla

Paraguay

62'

↑ A. Arce for A. Sanabria

Paraguay

72'

↑ R. Pepi for F. Balogun

United States

72'

↑ T. Weah for S. Dest

United States

79'

↑ G. Velazquez for J. Caceres

Paraguay

79'

↑ R. Sosa for M. Almiron

Paraguay

80'

↑ Kaku for D. Gomez

Paraguay

82'

↑ G. Reyna for M. Tillman

United States

Match stats

65%Possession35%

16Shots9

6Shots on target1

1.42Expected goals0.54

3Corners1

13Fouls17

2Offsides1

1Saves3

85%Pass accuracy73%

Top performer

F. Balogun

United States · 2 goals

Lineups

United States4-2-3-1

Paraguay4-4-2

What's at stake

Matchday 1, Group D opener. A win swings ~30 percentage points of qualification odds.

Season form comparison

sample home 5 · away 5

2.20

Goals / match

0.60

1.60

Conceded / match

1.20

60%

BTTS rate

40%

Clean sheet rate

40%

2.51

xG / match (club)

0.90

6.1

Corners / match

4.0

1.2

Yellows / match

2.6

61%

Possession

47%

United States · last 5

Paraguay4-113 June WH

Australia2-019 June LA

Turkey3-226 June WH

Bosnia and Herzegovina2-02 July LH

Belgium1-47 July

Paraguay · last 5

United States4-113 June WA

Turkey0-120 June DH

Australia0-026 June DA

Germany1-129 June LH

France0-14 July

Head to head · 4 meetings

United States wins

Draws

Paraguay wins

Last: USA 4-1 Paraguay (2026-06-13)avg 2.5 goals

Absences

model swing: 0 / 0 pp

United States

No known absences.

Paraguay

No known absences.

Win probability

Pre-match

The chart fills in from kickoff. We compute live win probability every 30 seconds.

Updated every 30s. Lines smoothed.

The model's read

Wide-open match

Result: An open match. United States edge it at just 44%.
Goals: A low-scoring game looks likely. Under 2.5 is favoured (61%).

Most likely score 1-1 (15%)

Why the model leans this way

Factor contributions

home←·→away

Rest days

-6.0%/+6.0%

Club xG form

+1.8%/-6.6%

Head-to-head

+2.0%/-2.0%

Travel

-1.0%/-4.0%

Set pieces

+1.3%/-0.7%

Two-model view

Second model api-football

Two-model consensus

United States

50%

Draw

50%

Paraguay

Their internal ratings (0-100)

0·

Form

·0

0·

Attack

·0

0·

Defence

·0

Their advice: Double chance : USA or draw

Surfaced for transparency. We don't blend api-football's numbers into our model — a second opinion, not a vote.

Match analysis

Score-line probability

brighter = more likely

United States goals

0123456

Paraguay goals

Most likely: 1-1 15%, 1-0 12%, 0-0 12%. Outlined cells are draws.

Total goals

over 2.5 = 39%

Brighter bars are 3+ goals (over 2.5). Dashed line is the O/U 2.5 split.

Team comparison

United StatesParaguay

Percentile vs all 48 teams. Further out is stronger.

Fair odds for every market

How to use this

Fair odds is the lowest price worth taking. It is where a bet breaks even. If your bookmaker offers a bigger number than the fair odds here, the model says that's value. Shop around: the same bet is often priced differently across books.

Match result

Home win44%2.26

Draw31%3.21

Away win24%4.08

Double chance

Home or draw76%1.32

Home or away69%1.45

Draw or away56%1.80

Draw no bet

Home (DNB)64%1.55

Away (DNB)36%2.81

Total goals

Over 0.588%1.14

Under 0.512%8.25

Over 1.568%1.48

Under 1.532%3.09

Over 2.539%2.55

Under 2.561%1.65

Over 3.519%5.20

Under 3.581%1.24

Over 4.58%12.67

Under 4.592%1.09

Odd / even goals

Odd46%2.17

Even54%1.86

Exact total goals

0 goals12%8.25

1 goals20%4.93

2 goals28%3.53

3 goals20%4.98

4 goals11%8.83

5 goals5%19.55

6+ goals3%36.01

Both teams to score

Yes46%2.17

No54%1.85

Team totals

Home over 0.574%1.35

Home over 1.539%2.58

Home over 2.515%6.56

Away over 0.560%1.67

Away over 1.523%4.28

Away over 2.57%15.22

Clean sheet

Home clean sheet40%2.50

Away clean sheet26%3.82

Win to nil

Home win to nil28%3.59

Away win to nil14%7.13

Asian handicap (home)

Home -2.58%12.43

Home -1.522%4.56

Home -0.545%2.23

Home +0.576%1.31

Home +1.591%1.10

Home +2.598%1.02

Correct score (top 8)

1-115%6.88

1-012%8.10

0-012%8.25

2-09%10.64

2-19%11.60

0-18%12.63

1-26%16.96

0-24%22.75

Half-time result

Home33%2.99

Draw46%2.18

Away21%4.83

Half-time goals

Over 0.564%1.57

Under 0.536%2.76

Over 1.527%3.70

Under 1.573%1.37

Half-time / full-time

Home/Home28%3.62

Home/Draw5%21.68

Home/Away1%78.68

Draw/Home17%5.91

Draw/Draw19%5.37

Draw/Away10%9.76

Away/Home2%49.53

Away/Draw5%21.68

Away/Away14%7.10

Corners (match total)

Indicative

Over 8.561%1.65

Under 8.539%2.54

Over 9.548%2.10

Under 9.552%1.91

Over 10.535%2.83

Under 10.565%1.55

Over 11.525%4.05

Under 11.575%1.33

Over 12.516%6.14

Under 12.584%1.19

Expected total: 9.5

US corners

Indicative

Over 3.578%1.29

Under 3.522%4.51

Over 4.562%1.63

Under 4.538%2.60

Over 5.544%2.27

Under 5.556%1.79

Over 6.529%3.48

Under 6.571%1.40

Expected total: 5.3

PY corners

Indicative

Over 3.560%1.67

Under 3.540%2.48

Over 4.540%2.48

Under 4.560%1.67

Over 5.524%4.15

Under 5.576%1.32

Over 6.513%7.80

Under 6.587%1.15

Expected total: 4.2

Yellow cards (match total)

Indicative

Over 2.576%1.32

Under 2.524%4.11

Over 3.556%1.79

Under 3.544%2.27

Over 4.536%2.74

Under 4.564%1.57

Over 5.521%4.77

Under 5.579%1.27

Expected total: 4.0

US anytime goalscorer

Indicative

very low sample (n=0)

J. Green (?)13%7.97

M. Fossey (?)13%7.97

A. Soñora (?)13%7.97

Chituru Ethan Odunze (?)13%7.97

J. Wynder (?)13%7.97

Expected total: 0.7

PY anytime goalscorer

Indicative

very low sample (n=0)

A. Romero (Attacker)24%4.16

L. Melgarejo (?)9%11.42

A. Silva (?)9%11.42

B. Valdez (?)9%11.42

S. Arzamendia (?)9%11.42

R. Rojas (?)9%11.42

C. González (?)9%11.42

G. Giménez (?)9%11.42

Expected total: 0.9

Probabilities and fair odds are derived from the model's full score-line distribution (expected goals: home 1.34, away 0.92). Half-time and HT/FT markets use a 45/55 first-half split. These are model estimates, not a betting guarantee.