WC26

Predictor

Tournament

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Tracking

Report Card Model Track Record Value Board Model Picks My Picks

Info

Model estimates, not guarantees. A strong edge can still lose. For 18+ only. Bet only what you can afford to lose, and take a break if it stops being fun.

Bracket Value board Acca builder How it works Track recordWC2026 Predictor

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Tournament

Final OddsHow the outright winner odds finished Group TablesFinal standings, all 12 groups Value BoardModel edge vs the market, graded

Picks & Tracking

Model PicksDaily auto-curated edge bets Track RecordEvery logged pick, settled My PicksYour own calls vs the model Report CardModel accuracy + calibration

About

How It WorksModel methodology

Awards Matches Report Record Bracket

United States

Group D

United States

Coach Mauricio Pochettino · Rating 1798

The model's outlook

Win the group

99%+

Reach last 32

99%+

Reach last 16

65%

Reach quarters

19%

Reach semis

3%

Reach final

1%

Win the World Cup

<1%

Chance of still being alive at each stage, across 20,000 tournament simulations.

Team strengths

United States

Percentile vs all 48 teams. Further out is stronger.

Recent form

Paraguay4-113 June WH

Australia2-019 June LA

Turkey3-226 June WH

Bosnia and Herzegovina2-02 July LH

Belgium1-47 July

Group D

United States3P6 2

Squad (5)

United States's knockout path

across 20k sims

R32 100%

vs Bosnia and Herzegovina

100% of paths

R16 65%

46% of paths

QF 19%

11% of paths

SF 3%

1% of paths

Final 1%

<1% of paths

Round of 32

Bosnia and Herzegovina100%

Round of 16

Belgium46%
Senegal19%

Quarter-final

Spain11%
Portugal6%
Croatia2%
Austria1%

Semi-final

France1%
Netherlands1%
Germany1%
Morocco<1%
Canada<1%

Final

Argentina<1%
Brazil<1%
Colombia<1%
England<1%
Switzerland<1%