United States vs Belgium

Group null · Matchday 5

· Lumen Field, Seattle

Group standings →Bracket →US 100% · BE 100% to advance

United States

18%

1–4

Belgium

59%

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Goals (5)

C. De Ketelaere

Belgium

31'

M. Tillman

United States

33'

C. De Ketelaere

assist: L. Trossard

Belgium

57'

H. Vanaken

Belgium

93'

R. Lukaku

assist: H. Vanaken

Belgium

Cards (2)

35'

W. McKennie

United States

69'

M. Tillman

United States

Substitutions (10)

21'

↑ H. Vanaken for A. Onana

Belgium

46'

↑ G. Reyna for S. Dest

United States

59'

↑ S. Berhalter for C. Pulisic

United States

67'

↑ J. Doku for D. Lukebakio

Belgium

67'

↑ R. Lukaku for C. De Ketelaere

Belgium

72'

↑ R. Pepi for T. Adams

United States

89'

↑ A. Saelemaekers for L. Trossard

Belgium

89'

↑ A. Witsel for N. Raskin

Belgium

92'

↑ H. Wright for F. Balogun

United States

92'

↑ M. Arfsten for A. Robinson

United States

Match stats

56%Possession44%

7Shots14

2Shots on target6

0.64Expected goals2.10

3Corners5

11Fouls9

0Offsides1

3Saves1

87%Pass accuracy81%

Top performer

C. De Ketelaere

Belgium · 2 goals

Lineups

United States4-3-3

Belgium4-2-3-1

What's at stake

Knockout fixture, single elimination.

Season form comparison

sample home 5 · away 6

2.20

Goals / match

2.33

1.60

Conceded / match

1.17

60%

BTTS rate

83%

40%

Clean sheet rate

17%

2.51

xG / match (club)

2.41

6.1

Corners / match

7.3

1.2

Yellows / match

1.5

61%

Possession

60%

United States · last 5

Paraguay4-113 June WH

Australia2-019 June LA

Turkey3-226 June WH

Bosnia and Herzegovina2-02 July LH

Belgium1-47 July

Belgium · last 5

Iran0-021 June WA

New Zealand1-527 June WH

Senegal3-21 July WA

United States1-47 July LA

Spain2-110 July

Head to head · 2 meetings

United States wins

Draws

Belgium wins

Last: USA 2-5 Belgium (2026-03-28)avg 5.0 goals

Absences

model swing: 0 / 0 pp

United States

No known absences.

Belgium

No known absences.

Win probability

Pre-match

The chart fills in from kickoff. We compute live win probability every 30 seconds.

Updated every 30s. Lines smoothed.

The model's read

Medium confidence

Result: Belgium are slight favourites at 59%, but it is far from settled.
Goals: Goals expected. Over 2.5 lands 60% of the time.
Both score: Both teams to score is likely (58%).

Most likely score 1-1 (11%)

Why the model leans this way

Factor contributions

home←·→away

Rest days

+6.0%/-6.0%

Head-to-head

-2.0%/+2.0%

Club xG form

-2.5%/+1.2%

Travel

0.0%/-1.0%

Set pieces

+0.6%/+0.8%

Two-model view

Second model api-football

Two models moderately agree

United States

10%

Draw

45%

Belgium

45%

Their internal ratings (0-100)

53·

Form

·47

53·

Attack

·47

50·

Defence

·50

Their advice: Double chance : draw or Belgium

Surfaced for transparency. We don't blend api-football's numbers into our model — a second opinion, not a vote.

Match analysis

Score-line probability

brighter = more likely

United States goals

0123456

Belgium goals

Most likely: 1-1 11%, 1-2 10%, 0-2 10%. Outlined cells are draws.

Total goals

over 2.5 = 59%

Brighter bars are 3+ goals (over 2.5). Dashed line is the O/U 2.5 split.

Team comparison

United StatesBelgium

Percentile vs all 48 teams. Further out is stronger.

Fair odds for every market

How to use this

Fair odds is the lowest price worth taking. It is where a bet breaks even. If your bookmaker offers a bigger number than the fair odds here, the model says that's value. Shop around: the same bet is often priced differently across books.

Match result

Home win18%5.64

Draw24%4.25

Away win59%1.70

Double chance

Home or draw41%2.42

Home or away76%1.31

Draw or away82%1.22

Draw no bet

Home (DNB)23%4.32

Away (DNB)77%1.30

Total goals

Over 0.594%1.06

Under 0.56%17.45

Over 1.583%1.21

Under 1.517%5.83

Over 2.560%1.67

Under 2.540%2.50

Over 3.538%2.66

Under 3.562%1.60

Over 4.520%4.93

Under 4.580%1.25

Odd / even goals

Odd47%2.11

Even53%1.90

Exact total goals

0 goals6%17.45

1 goals11%8.75

2 goals23%4.38

3 goals22%4.47

4 goals17%5.76

5 goals11%9.28

6+ goals9%10.54

Both teams to score

Yes58%1.74

No42%2.36

Team totals

Home over 0.564%1.55

Home over 1.528%3.62

Home over 2.59%11.56

Away over 0.587%1.14

Away over 1.561%1.63

Away over 2.534%2.92

Clean sheet

Home clean sheet13%7.94

Away clean sheet36%2.81

Win to nil

Home win to nil7%14.57

Away win to nil30%3.35

Asian handicap (home)

Home -2.52%56.61

Home -1.56%15.64

Home -0.517%5.93

Home +0.540%2.50

Home +1.562%1.61

Home +2.581%1.24

Correct score (top 8)

1-111%9.22

1-210%10.06

0-210%10.39

0-18%12.44

1-37%14.57

0-37%15.05

0-06%17.45

2-25%19.48

Half-time result

Home18%5.63

Draw37%2.73

Away46%2.19

Half-time goals

Over 0.575%1.33

Under 0.525%4.04

Over 1.541%2.46

Under 1.559%1.69

Half-time / full-time

Home/Home10%9.98

Home/Draw4%22.44

Home/Away3%30.40

Draw/Home7%14.84

Draw/Draw12%8.55

Draw/Away18%5.49

Away/Home1%74.83

Away/Draw4%22.44

Away/Away40%2.51

Corners (match total)

Indicative

Over 8.584%1.19

Under 8.516%6.28

Over 9.575%1.33

Under 9.525%4.03

Over 10.565%1.55

Under 10.535%2.83

Over 11.553%1.88

Under 11.547%2.13

Over 12.542%2.40

Under 12.558%1.72

Expected total: 11.9

US corners

Indicative

Over 3.578%1.29

Under 3.522%4.51

Over 4.562%1.63

Under 4.538%2.60

Over 5.544%2.27

Under 5.556%1.79

Over 6.529%3.48

Under 6.571%1.40

Expected total: 5.3

BE corners

Indicative

Over 3.590%1.12

Under 3.510%9.57

Over 4.579%1.27

Under 4.521%4.72

Over 5.565%1.55

Under 5.535%2.83

Over 6.549%2.04

Under 6.551%1.96

Expected total: 6.6

Yellow cards (match total)

Indicative

Over 2.553%1.89

Under 2.547%2.13

Over 3.531%3.26

Under 3.569%1.44

Over 4.515%6.60

Under 4.585%1.18

Over 5.56%15.46

Under 5.594%1.07

Expected total: 2.8

US anytime goalscorer

Indicative

very low sample (n=0)

J. Green (?)10%10.19

M. Fossey (?)10%10.19

A. Soñora (?)10%10.19

Chituru Ethan Odunze (?)10%10.19

J. Wynder (?)10%10.19

Expected total: 0.5

BE anytime goalscorer

Indicative

very low sample (n=0)

A. Witsel (Midfielder)19%5.34

C. Ngonge (?)19%5.34

N. Chadli (?)19%5.34

Thomas Vermaelen (?)19%5.34

T. Alderweireld (?)19%5.34

J. Vertonghen (?)19%5.34

S. Mignolet (?)19%5.34

D. Mertens (?)19%5.34

Expected total: 1.7

Probabilities and fair odds are derived from the model's full score-line distribution (expected goals: home 1.03, away 2.07). Half-time and HT/FT markets use a 45/55 first-half split. These are model estimates, not a betting guarantee.