New Zealand vs Belgium
Group G · Matchday 3
· BC Place, Vancouver
Goals (6)
Cards (2)
Marko Stamenić
Elijah Just
Substitutions (10)
↑ Jesse Randall for Sarpreet Singh
↑ Benjamin Old for Ryan Thomas
↑ Matías Fernández-Pardo for Jérémy Doku
↑ Callum McCowatt for Joe Bell
↑ Michael Boxall for Tim Payne
↑ Amadou Onana for Kevin De Bruyne
↑ Alexis Saelemaekers for Leandro Trossard
↑ Francis De Vries for Liberato Cacace
↑ Nicolas Raskin for Youri Tielemans
↑ Romelu Lukaku for Charles De Ketelaere
Match stats
Top performer
RLRomelu Lukaku
Belgium · 1 goal
Lineups
New Zealand4-2-3-1
What's at stake
Matchday 3, final group game. Both sides know the exact result they need.
Season form comparison
sample home 3 · away 6
New Zealand · last 3
Head to head · 1 meetings
0
New Zealand wins
1
Draws
0
Belgium wins
Absences
model swing: 0 / 0 pp
New Zealand
No known absences.
Belgium
No known absences.
Win probability
Pre-match
The chart fills in from kickoff. We compute live win probability every 30 seconds.
Updated every 30s. Lines smoothed.
The model's read
High confidenceResult: Belgium are strong favourites at 87%.
Goals: Goals expected. Over 2.5 lands 72% of the time.
Both score: Expect at least one clean sheet. Both-teams-score is just 39%.
Why the model leans this way
Factor contributions
home←·→away
Two-model view
Second model api-football
Two models divergeNew Zealand
10%
Draw
45%
Belgium
45%
Their internal ratings (0-100)
Their advice: Double chance : draw or Belgium
Surfaced for transparency. We don't blend api-football's numbers into our model — a second opinion, not a vote.
Match analysis
Score-line probability
brighter = more likely
Belgium goals
Most likely: 0-3 13%, 0-2 12%, 0-4 11%. Outlined cells are draws.
Total goals
over 2.5 = 68%
Brighter bars are 3+ goals (over 2.5). Dashed line is the O/U 2.5 split.
Team comparison
Percentile vs all 48 teams. Further out is stronger.
Fair odds for every market
How to use this
Fair odds is the lowest price worth taking. It is where a bet breaks even. If your bookmaker offers a bigger number than the fair odds here, the model says that's value. Shop around: the same bet is often priced differently across books.
Match result
Double chance
Draw no bet
Total goals
Odd / even goals
Exact total goals
Both teams to score
Team totals
Clean sheet
Win to nil
Asian handicap (home)
Correct score (top 8)
Half-time result
Half-time goals
Half-time / full-time
Corners (match total)
Indicativelow sample (n=11)
Expected total: 11.4
NZ corners
Indicativelow sample (n=11)
Expected total: 4.8
BE corners
IndicativeExpected total: 6.6
Yellow cards (match total)
Indicativelow sample (n=8)
Expected total: 2.8
NZ anytime goalscorer
Indicativelow sample (n=1)
Expected total: 0.8
BE anytime goalscorer
Indicativevery low sample (n=0)
Expected total: 2.6
Probabilities and fair odds are derived from the model's full score-line distribution (expected goals: home 0.52, away 3.22). Half-time and HT/FT markets use a 45/55 first-half split. These are model estimates, not a betting guarantee.