United States vs Australia

Group D · Matchday 2

· Lumen Field, Seattle

Group D standings →Bracket →US 100% · AU 100% to advance

United States

40%

2–0

HT 2–0

Australia

29%

Share card

Goals (2)

11'

C. Burgessog

United States

43'

A. Freeman

United States

Cards (7)

16'

J. Bos

Australia

32'

A. Circati

Australia

56'

A. Robinson

United States

88'

H. Souttar

Australia

89'

F. Balogun

United States

89'

J. Italiano

Australia

93'

C. Richards

United States

Substitutions (10)

46'

↑ J. Geria for C. Burgess

Australia

46'

↑ C. Metcalfe for N. Velupillay

Australia

46'

↑ N. Irankunda for M. Toure

Australia

61'

↑ C. Volpato for M. Leckie

Australia

74'

↑ S. Berhalter for R. Pepi

United States

78'

↑ J. Irvine for P. Okon-Engstler

Australia

80'

↑ A. Trusty for A. Robinson

United States

80'

↑ J. Scally for S. Dest

United States

96'

↑ G. Reyna for W. McKennie

United States

96'

↑ H. Wright for F. Balogun

United States

Match stats

62%Possession38%

10Shots5

2Shots on target2

1.30Expected goals0.44

7Corners4

12Fouls16

1Offsides0

2Saves1

85%Pass accuracy72%

Top performer

A. Freeman

United States · 1 goal

Lineups

United States3-5-2

Australia5-4-1

What's at stake

Matchday 2, Group D. The losing side here typically needs a Matchday 3 win plus favourable other-game results to advance.

Season form comparison

sample home 5 · away 4

2.20

Goals / match

0.75

1.60

Conceded / match

0.75

60%

BTTS rate

25%

40%

Clean sheet rate

50%

2.51

xG / match (club)

0.44

6.1

Corners / match

4.5

1.2

Yellows / match

1.5

61%

Possession

51%

United States · last 5

Paraguay4-113 June WH

Australia2-019 June LA

Turkey3-226 June WH

Bosnia and Herzegovina2-02 July LH

Belgium1-47 July

Australia · last 4

Turkey2-014 June LA

United States2-019 June DA

Paraguay0-026 June DH

Egypt1-13 July

Head to head · 1 meetings

United States wins

Draws

Australia wins

Last: USA 2-1 Australia (2025-10-15)avg 3.0 goals

Absences

model swing: 0 / 0 pp

United States

No known absences.

Australia

No known absences.

Win probability

Pre-match

The chart fills in from kickoff. We compute live win probability every 30 seconds.

Updated every 30s. Lines smoothed.

The model's read

Wide-open match

Result: An open match. United States edge it at just 40%.
Goals: A low-scoring game looks likely. Under 2.5 is favoured (59%).

Most likely score 1-1 (15%)

Why the model leans this way

Factor contributions

home←·→away

Rest days

-6.0%/+6.0%

Club xG form

+1.3%/-4.9%

Travel

0.0%/-3.0%

Set pieces

+1.0%/-0.2%

Two-model view

Second model api-football

Two models moderately agree

United States

45%

Draw

45%

Australia

10%

Their internal ratings (0-100)

50·

Form

·50

67·

Attack

·33

0·

Defence

·100

Their advice: Winner : USA

Surfaced for transparency. We don't blend api-football's numbers into our model — a second opinion, not a vote.

Match analysis

Score-line probability

brighter = more likely

United States goals

0123456

Australia goals

Most likely: 1-1 15%, 0-0 12%, 1-0 11%. Outlined cells are draws.

Total goals

over 2.5 = 41%

Brighter bars are 3+ goals (over 2.5). Dashed line is the O/U 2.5 split.

Team comparison

United StatesAustralia

Percentile vs all 48 teams. Further out is stronger.

Fair odds for every market

How to use this

Fair odds is the lowest price worth taking. It is where a bet breaks even. If your bookmaker offers a bigger number than the fair odds here, the model says that's value. Shop around: the same bet is often priced differently across books.

Match result

Home win40%2.51

Draw31%3.18

Away win29%3.48

Double chance

Home or draw71%1.40

Home or away69%1.46

Draw or away60%1.66

Draw no bet

Home (DNB)58%1.72

Away (DNB)42%2.38

Total goals

Over 0.588%1.13

Under 0.512%8.58

Over 1.569%1.45

Under 1.531%3.21

Over 2.541%2.46

Under 2.559%1.68

Over 3.520%4.94

Under 3.580%1.25

Over 4.58%11.81

Under 4.592%1.09

Odd / even goals

Odd46%2.17

Even54%1.86

Exact total goals

0 goals12%8.58

1 goals20%5.12

2 goals28%3.55

3 goals20%4.91

4 goals12%8.50

5 goals5%18.42

6+ goals3%32.89

Both teams to score

Yes48%2.08

No52%1.93

Team totals

Home over 0.572%1.39

Home over 1.536%2.75

Home over 2.514%7.31

Away over 0.564%1.55

Away over 1.528%3.61

Away over 2.59%11.51

Clean sheet

Home clean sheet36%2.82

Away clean sheet28%3.57

Win to nil

Home win to nil24%4.19

Away win to nil16%6.12

Asian handicap (home)

Home -2.57%15.28

Home -1.519%5.32

Home -0.540%2.49

Home +0.572%1.40

Home +1.589%1.13

Home +2.597%1.03

Correct score (top 8)

1-115%6.75

0-012%8.58

1-011%9.13

0-19%11.64

2-18%11.99

2-08%12.41

1-27%14.75

0-25%18.77

Half-time result

Home31%3.24

Draw45%2.20

Away24%4.22

Half-time goals

Over 0.565%1.55

Under 0.535%2.83

Over 1.528%3.59

Under 1.572%1.39

Half-time / full-time

Home/Home24%4.09

Home/Draw5%20.73

Home/Away2%65.56

Draw/Home15%6.50

Draw/Draw18%5.43

Draw/Away12%8.56

Away/Home2%50.88

Away/Draw5%20.73

Away/Away17%5.92

Corners (match total)

Indicative

Over 8.566%1.52

Under 8.534%2.92

Over 9.553%1.88

Under 9.547%2.14

Over 10.541%2.46

Under 10.559%1.69

Over 11.529%3.40

Under 11.571%1.42

Over 12.520%4.98

Under 12.580%1.25

Expected total: 9.9

US corners

Indicative

Over 3.578%1.29

Under 3.522%4.51

Over 4.562%1.63

Under 4.538%2.60

Over 5.544%2.27

Under 5.556%1.79

Over 6.529%3.48

Under 6.571%1.40

Expected total: 5.3

AU corners

Indicative

Over 3.567%1.49

Under 3.533%3.05

Over 4.548%2.06

Under 4.552%1.94

Over 5.531%3.20

Under 5.569%1.45

Over 6.518%5.54

Under 6.582%1.22

Expected total: 4.6

Yellow cards (match total)

Indicative

Over 2.558%1.72

Under 2.542%2.39

Over 3.536%2.79

Under 3.564%1.56

Over 4.519%5.30

Under 4.581%1.23

Over 5.59%11.60

Under 5.591%1.09

Expected total: 3.0

US anytime goalscorer

Indicative

very low sample (n=0)

J. Green (?)12%8.37

M. Fossey (?)12%8.37

A. Soñora (?)12%8.37

Chituru Ethan Odunze (?)12%8.37

J. Wynder (?)12%8.37

Expected total: 0.6

AU anytime goalscorer

Indicative

very low sample (n=0)

T. Yengi (Attacker)27%3.75

N. Velupillay (Attacker)27%3.75

T. Sainsbury (?)10%10.17

A. Giannou (?)10%10.17

T. Rogić (?)10%10.17

D. Vukovic (?)10%10.17

M. Langerak (?)10%10.17

M. Jurman (?)10%10.17

Expected total: 1.2

Probabilities and fair odds are derived from the model's full score-line distribution (expected goals: home 1.27, away 1.03). Half-time and HT/FT markets use a 45/55 first-half split. These are model estimates, not a betting guarantee.