Australia vs Turkey

Group D · Matchday 1

· BC Place, Vancouver

Group D standings →Bracket →AU 100% · TR 0% to advance

Australia

23%

FT

2–0

HT 1–0

Turkey

46%

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Goals (2)

27'

N. Irankunda

assist: P. Okon-Engstler

Australia
75'

C. Metcalfe

Australia

Cards (1)

86'

Yunus Akgün

Turkey

Substitutions (10)

46'

↑ K. Yildiz for B. Yilmaz

Turkey
61'

↑ N. Velupillay for N. Irankunda

Australia
62'

↑ Y. Akgun for O. Kokcu

Turkey
74'

↑ J. Geria for J. Italiano

Australia
74'

↑ T. Yengi for M. Toure

Australia
81'

↑ M. Muldur for Z. Celik

Turkey
81'

↑ S. Ozcan for I. Yuksek

Turkey
84'

↑ A. Behich for J. Bos

Australia
84'

↑ J. Irvine for P. Okon-Engstler

Australia
85'

↑ D. Gul for K. Akturkoglu

Turkey

Match stats

28%Possession72%
9Shots30
4Shots on target8
1.18Expected goals1.36
5Corners8
12Fouls4
1Offsides3
8Saves2
74%Pass accuracy90%

Top performer

NI

N. Irankunda

Australia · 1 goal

Lineups

Australia5-4-1

Turkey4-2-3-1

What's at stake

Matchday 1, Group D opener. A win swings ~30 percentage points of qualification odds.

Season form comparison

sample home 4 · away 3

0.75
Goals / match
1.00
0.75
Conceded / match
1.67
25%
BTTS rate
33%
50%
Clean sheet rate
0%
0.44
xG / match (club)
1.61
4.5
Corners / match
5.6
1.5
Yellows / match
2.4
51%
Possession
58%

Head to head · 1 meetings

1

Australia wins

0

Draws

0

Turkey wins

Last: Australia 2-0 Türkiye (2026-06-14)avg 2.0 goals

Absences

model swing: 0 / 0 pp

Australia

No known absences.

Turkey

No known absences.

Win probability

Pre-match

The chart fills in from kickoff. We compute live win probability every 30 seconds.

Updated every 30s. Lines smoothed.

The model's read

Medium confidence

  • Result: Turkey are slight favourites at 46%, but it is far from settled.

  • Goals: A low-scoring game looks likely. Under 2.5 is favoured (61%).

Most likely score 1-1 (14%)

Why the model leans this way

Factor contributions

home←·→away

Rest days
-6.0%/+6.0%
Club xG form
-3.1%/-0.9%
Travel
-3.0%/-1.0%

Two-model view

Second model api-football

Two models moderately agree

Australia

33%

Draw

33%

Turkey

33%

Their internal ratings (0-100)

0·
Form
·0
0·
Attack
·0
0·
Defence
·0

Their advice: No predictions available

Surfaced for transparency. We don't blend api-football's numbers into our model — a second opinion, not a vote.

Match analysis

Score-line probability

brighter = more likely

Australia goals
12
13
10
4
8
14
9
4
6
0123456

Turkey goals

Most likely: 1-1 14%, 0-1 13%, 0-0 12%. Outlined cells are draws.

Total goals

over 2.5 = 39%

12
0
20
1
28
2
20
3
11
4
5
5
3
6+

Brighter bars are 3+ goals (over 2.5). Dashed line is the O/U 2.5 split.

Team comparison

AttackDefenceRatingSet-pieceattackSet-piecedefence
AustraliaTurkey

Percentile vs all 48 teams. Further out is stronger.

Fair odds for every market

How to use this

Fair odds is the lowest price worth taking. It is where a bet breaks even. If your bookmaker offers a bigger number than the fair odds here, the model says that's value. Shop around: the same bet is often priced differently across books.

Match result

Home win23%4.27
Draw31%3.23
Away win46%2.19

Double chance

Home or draw54%1.84
Home or away69%1.45
Draw or away77%1.31

Draw no bet

Home (DNB)34%2.95
Away (DNB)66%1.51

Total goals

Over 0.588%1.14
Under 0.512%8.23
Over 1.568%1.48
Under 1.533%3.08
Over 2.539%2.55
Under 2.561%1.64
Over 3.519%5.23
Under 3.581%1.24
Over 4.58%12.74
Under 4.592%1.09

Odd / even goals

Odd46%2.17
Even54%1.86

Exact total goals

0 goals12%8.23
1 goals20%4.91
2 goals28%3.53
3 goals20%4.99
4 goals11%8.86
5 goals5%19.65
6+ goals3%36.27

Both teams to score

Yes46%2.20
No54%1.84

Team totals

Home over 0.559%1.70
Home over 1.522%4.47
Home over 2.56%16.33
Away over 0.574%1.34
Away over 1.540%2.53
Away over 2.516%6.33

Clean sheet

Home clean sheet26%3.91
Away clean sheet41%2.44

Win to nil

Home win to nil13%7.46
Away win to nil29%3.46

Asian handicap (home)

Home -2.52%48.21
Home -1.58%12.21
Home -0.523%4.38
Home +0.554%1.86
Home +1.577%1.30
Home +2.591%1.09

Correct score (top 8)

1-114%6.94
0-113%7.90
0-012%8.23
0-210%10.24
1-29%11.51
1-08%13.01
2-16%17.63
0-34%22.52

Half-time result

Home20%5.00
Draw46%2.19
Away34%2.92

Half-time goals

Over 0.564%1.57
Under 0.536%2.76
Over 1.527%3.71
Under 1.573%1.37

Half-time / full-time

Home/Home13%7.46
Home/Draw5%21.97
Home/Away2%49.08
Draw/Home10%10.14
Draw/Draw19%5.39
Draw/Away17%5.77
Away/Home1%82.51
Away/Draw5%21.97
Away/Away28%3.51

Corners (match total)

Indicative
Over 8.564%1.55
Under 8.536%2.80
Over 9.552%1.94
Under 9.548%2.07
Over 10.539%2.56
Under 10.561%1.64
Over 11.528%3.57
Under 11.572%1.39
Over 12.519%5.29
Under 12.581%1.23

Expected total: 9.8

AU corners

Indicative
Over 3.567%1.49
Under 3.533%3.05
Over 4.548%2.06
Under 4.552%1.94
Over 5.531%3.20
Under 5.569%1.45
Over 6.518%5.54
Under 6.582%1.22

Expected total: 4.6

TR corners

Indicative
Over 3.576%1.31
Under 3.524%4.21
Over 4.559%1.68
Under 4.541%2.46
Over 5.542%2.38
Under 5.558%1.72
Over 6.527%3.73
Under 6.573%1.37

Expected total: 5.2

Yellow cards (match total)

Indicative
Over 2.577%1.29
Under 2.523%4.39
Over 3.558%1.72
Under 3.542%2.38
Over 4.539%2.60
Under 4.561%1.63
Over 5.523%4.42
Under 5.577%1.29

Expected total: 4.1

AU anytime goalscorer

Indicative

very low sample (n=0)

T. Yengi (Attacker)23%4.27
N. Velupillay (Attacker)23%4.27
T. Sainsbury (?)9%11.74
A. Giannou (?)9%11.74
T. Rogić (?)9%11.74
D. Vukovic (?)9%11.74
M. Langerak (?)9%11.74
M. Jurman (?)9%11.74

Expected total: 1.1

TR anytime goalscorer

Indicative

very low sample (n=0)

U. Bozok (?)13%7.84
A. Parmak (?)13%7.84
E. Özbir (?)13%7.84
E. Karaca (?)13%7.84
G. Akkan (?)13%7.84
M. Çetin (?)13%7.84
T. Sanuç (?)13%7.84
C. Özkacar (?)13%7.84

Expected total: 1.1

Probabilities and fair odds are derived from the model's full score-line distribution (expected goals: home 0.89, away 1.36). Half-time and HT/FT markets use a 45/55 first-half split. These are model estimates, not a betting guarantee.