Team
Argentina vs Algeria
Group J · Matchday 1
· Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City
Goals (3)
Substitutions (10)
46'
Argentina
↑ N. Molina for G. Montiel
55'Argentina
↑ N. Gonzalez for T. Almada
55'Argentina
↑ J. Alvarez for L. Martinez
64'
Algeria
↑ R. Mahrez for A. Hadj Moussa
64'Algeria
↑ H. Aouar for H. Boudaoui
64'Algeria
↑ M. Amoura for A. Gouiri
80'Argentina
↑ N. Otamendi for C. Romero
80'Argentina
↑ N. Paz for L. Messi
81'Algeria
↑ A. Boulbina for I. Maza
82'Algeria
↑ R. Zerrouki for N. Bentaleb
Match stats
48%Possession52%
10Shots7
6Shots on target0
1.47Expected goals0.30
2Corners2
13Fouls8
3Offsides1
0Saves3
90%Pass accuracy92%
Top performer
LML. Messi
Argentina · 3 goals
Lineups
Argentina4-4-2
Algeria4-3-3
What's at stake
Matchday 1, Group J opener. A win swings ~30 percentage points of qualification odds.
Season form comparison
sample home 8 · away 4
2.38
Goals / match
1.25
1.00
Conceded / match
2.25
62%
BTTS rate
50%
25%
Clean sheet rate
0%
2.22
xG / match (club)
0.00
5.3
Corners / match
6.2
1.4
Yellows / match
2.3
61%
Possession
60%
Argentina · last 5
Head to head · 1 meetings
1
Argentina wins
0
Draws
0
Algeria wins
Last: Argentina 3-0 Algeria (2026-06-17)avg 3.0 goals
Absences
model swing: 0 / 0 pp
Argentina
No known absences.
Algeria
No known absences.
Win probability
Pre-match
The chart fills in from kickoff. We compute live win probability every 30 seconds.
Updated every 30s. Lines smoothed.
The model's read
High confidenceResult: Argentina are strong favourites at 77%.
Goals: Goals expected. Over 2.5 lands 57% of the time.
Both score: Expect at least one clean sheet. Both-teams-score is just 39%.
Most likely score 2-0 (15%)
Why the model leans this way
Factor contributions
home←·→away
Rest days
-6.0%/+6.0%
Club xG form
+0.4%/-3.2%
Travel
0.0%/-3.0%
Two-model view
Second model api-football
Two models divergeArgentina
33%
Draw
33%
Algeria
33%
Their internal ratings (0-100)
0·
Form
·0
0·
Attack
·0
0·
Defence
·0
Their advice: No predictions available
Surfaced for transparency. We don't blend api-football's numbers into our model — a second opinion, not a vote.
Match analysis
Score-line probability
brighter = more likely
Argentina goals
6
12
8
15
8
12
7
7
4
0123456
Algeria goals
Most likely: 2-0 15%, 3-0 12%, 1-0 12%. Outlined cells are draws.
Total goals
over 2.5 = 56%
60
141
242
223
174
105
76+
Brighter bars are 3+ goals (over 2.5). Dashed line is the O/U 2.5 split.
Team comparison
ArgentinaAlgeria
Percentile vs all 48 teams. Further out is stronger.
Fair odds for every market
How to use this
Fair odds is the lowest price worth taking. It is where a bet breaks even. If your bookmaker offers a bigger number than the fair odds here, the model says that's value. Shop around: the same bet is often priced differently across books.
Match result
Home win77%1.29
Draw16%6.15
Away win6%15.67
Double chance
Home or draw94%1.07
Home or away84%1.19
Draw or away23%4.42
Draw no bet
Home (DNB)92%1.08
Away (DNB)8%13.12
Total goals
Over 0.594%1.06
Under 0.56%16.54
Over 1.580%1.24
Under 1.520%5.10
Over 2.557%1.76
Under 2.543%2.32
Over 3.534%2.90
Under 3.566%1.53
Over 4.518%5.60
Under 4.582%1.22
Odd / even goals
Odd48%2.08
Even52%1.93
Exact total goals
0 goals6%16.54
1 goals14%7.38
2 goals24%4.24
3 goals22%4.46
4 goals17%6.03
5 goals10%10.17
6+ goals8%12.47
Both teams to score
Yes39%2.57
No61%1.64
Team totals
Home over 0.591%1.10
Home over 1.570%1.44
Home over 2.544%2.29
Away over 0.542%2.39
Away over 1.510%9.72
Away over 2.52%56.54
Clean sheet
Home clean sheet58%1.72
Away clean sheet9%11.27
Win to nil
Home win to nil52%1.92
Away win to nil3%35.36
Asian handicap (home)
Home -2.533%2.99
Home -1.556%1.77
Home -0.578%1.28
Home +0.594%1.06
Home +1.599%1.01
Home +2.599%+1.00
Correct score (top 8)
2-015%6.60
3-012%8.17
1-012%8.60
2-18%12.20
1-18%13.07
4-07%13.50
3-17%15.11
0-06%16.54
Half-time result
Home58%1.73
Draw34%2.96
Away8%12.15
Half-time goals
Over 0.574%1.36
Under 0.526%3.79
Over 1.538%2.60
Under 1.562%1.63
Half-time / full-time
Home/Home55%1.82
Home/Draw2%40.22
Home/Away<1%266.93
Draw/Home22%4.64
Draw/Draw10%10.49
Draw/Away3%36.24
Away/Home2%40.86
Away/Draw2%40.22
Away/Away3%30.32
Corners (match total)
IndicativeOver 8.577%1.30
Under 8.523%4.34
Over 9.566%1.51
Under 9.534%2.95
Over 10.554%1.84
Under 10.546%2.18
Over 11.542%2.36
Under 11.558%1.73
Over 12.531%3.19
Under 12.569%1.46
Expected total: 11.0
AR corners
IndicativeOver 3.575%1.33
Under 3.525%4.02
Over 4.558%1.72
Under 4.542%2.38
Over 5.540%2.47
Under 5.560%1.68
Over 6.526%3.92
Under 6.574%1.34
Expected total: 5.1
DZ corners
IndicativeOver 3.584%1.19
Under 3.516%6.24
Over 4.570%1.43
Under 4.530%3.35
Over 5.554%1.86
Under 5.546%2.17
Over 6.538%2.65
Under 6.562%1.61
Expected total: 5.9
Yellow cards (match total)
IndicativeOver 2.575%1.33
Under 2.525%4.07
Over 3.556%1.80
Under 3.544%2.25
Over 4.536%2.77
Under 4.564%1.57
Over 5.521%4.83
Under 5.579%1.26
Expected total: 4.0
AR anytime goalscorer
Indicativevery low sample (n=0)
N. González (Attacker)52%1.94
J. Foyth (?)22%4.65
S. Agüero (?)22%4.65
P. Dybala (?)22%4.65
E. Andrada (?)22%4.65
P. Gómez (?)22%4.65
N. Valentini (?)22%4.65
T. Geralnik (?)22%4.65
Expected total: 2.4
DZ anytime goalscorer
Indicativelow sample (n=1)
A. Benbouali (Attacker)17%5.87
A. Boulbina (Attacker)15%6.68
F. Ghedjemis (Attacker)15%6.68
Y. Brahimi (?)5%18.98
I. Belfodil (?)5%18.98
Y. Atal (?)5%18.98
M. Belkhither (?)5%18.98
B. Bounedjah (?)5%18.98
Expected total: 0.8
Probabilities and fair odds are derived from the model's full score-line distribution (expected goals: home 2.42, away 0.54). Half-time and HT/FT markets use a 45/55 first-half split. These are model estimates, not a betting guarantee.