Argentina vs Algeria

Group J · Matchday 1

· Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City

Group J standings →Bracket →AR 100% · DZ 100% to advance

Argentina

77%

FT

3–0

HT 1–0

Algeria

6%

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Goals (3)

17'

L. Messi

assist: R. de Paul

Argentina
60'

L. Messi

Argentina
76'

L. Messi

assist: N. Gonzalez

Argentina

Substitutions (10)

46'

↑ N. Molina for G. Montiel

Argentina
55'

↑ N. Gonzalez for T. Almada

Argentina
55'

↑ J. Alvarez for L. Martinez

Argentina
64'

↑ R. Mahrez for A. Hadj Moussa

Algeria
64'

↑ H. Aouar for H. Boudaoui

Algeria
64'

↑ M. Amoura for A. Gouiri

Algeria
80'

↑ N. Otamendi for C. Romero

Argentina
80'

↑ N. Paz for L. Messi

Argentina
81'

↑ A. Boulbina for I. Maza

Algeria
82'

↑ R. Zerrouki for N. Bentaleb

Algeria

Match stats

48%Possession52%
10Shots7
6Shots on target0
1.47Expected goals0.30
2Corners2
13Fouls8
3Offsides1
0Saves3
90%Pass accuracy92%

Top performer

LM

L. Messi

Argentina · 3 goals

Lineups

Argentina4-4-2

Algeria4-3-3

What's at stake

Matchday 1, Group J opener. A win swings ~30 percentage points of qualification odds.

Season form comparison

sample home 8 · away 4

2.38
Goals / match
1.25
1.00
Conceded / match
2.25
62%
BTTS rate
50%
25%
Clean sheet rate
0%
2.22
xG / match (club)
0.00
5.3
Corners / match
6.2
1.4
Yellows / match
2.3
61%
Possession
60%

Head to head · 1 meetings

1

Argentina wins

0

Draws

0

Algeria wins

Last: Argentina 3-0 Algeria (2026-06-17)avg 3.0 goals

Absences

model swing: 0 / 0 pp

Argentina

No known absences.

Algeria

No known absences.

Win probability

Pre-match

The chart fills in from kickoff. We compute live win probability every 30 seconds.

Updated every 30s. Lines smoothed.

The model's read

High confidence

  • Result: Argentina are strong favourites at 77%.

  • Goals: Goals expected. Over 2.5 lands 57% of the time.

  • Both score: Expect at least one clean sheet. Both-teams-score is just 39%.

Most likely score 2-0 (15%)

Why the model leans this way

Factor contributions

home←·→away

Rest days
-6.0%/+6.0%
Club xG form
+0.4%/-3.2%
Travel
0.0%/-3.0%

Two-model view

Second model api-football

Two models diverge

Argentina

33%

Draw

33%

Algeria

33%

Their internal ratings (0-100)

0·
Form
·0
0·
Attack
·0
0·
Defence
·0

Their advice: No predictions available

Surfaced for transparency. We don't blend api-football's numbers into our model — a second opinion, not a vote.

Match analysis

Score-line probability

brighter = more likely

Argentina goals
6
12
8
15
8
12
7
7
4
0123456

Algeria goals

Most likely: 2-0 15%, 3-0 12%, 1-0 12%. Outlined cells are draws.

Total goals

over 2.5 = 56%

6
0
14
1
24
2
22
3
17
4
10
5
7
6+

Brighter bars are 3+ goals (over 2.5). Dashed line is the O/U 2.5 split.

Team comparison

AttackDefenceRatingSet-pieceattackSet-piecedefence
ArgentinaAlgeria

Percentile vs all 48 teams. Further out is stronger.

Fair odds for every market

How to use this

Fair odds is the lowest price worth taking. It is where a bet breaks even. If your bookmaker offers a bigger number than the fair odds here, the model says that's value. Shop around: the same bet is often priced differently across books.

Match result

Home win77%1.29
Draw16%6.15
Away win6%15.67

Double chance

Home or draw94%1.07
Home or away84%1.19
Draw or away23%4.42

Draw no bet

Home (DNB)92%1.08
Away (DNB)8%13.12

Total goals

Over 0.594%1.06
Under 0.56%16.54
Over 1.580%1.24
Under 1.520%5.10
Over 2.557%1.76
Under 2.543%2.32
Over 3.534%2.90
Under 3.566%1.53
Over 4.518%5.60
Under 4.582%1.22

Odd / even goals

Odd48%2.08
Even52%1.93

Exact total goals

0 goals6%16.54
1 goals14%7.38
2 goals24%4.24
3 goals22%4.46
4 goals17%6.03
5 goals10%10.17
6+ goals8%12.47

Both teams to score

Yes39%2.57
No61%1.64

Team totals

Home over 0.591%1.10
Home over 1.570%1.44
Home over 2.544%2.29
Away over 0.542%2.39
Away over 1.510%9.72
Away over 2.52%56.54

Clean sheet

Home clean sheet58%1.72
Away clean sheet9%11.27

Win to nil

Home win to nil52%1.92
Away win to nil3%35.36

Asian handicap (home)

Home -2.533%2.99
Home -1.556%1.77
Home -0.578%1.28
Home +0.594%1.06
Home +1.599%1.01
Home +2.599%+1.00

Correct score (top 8)

2-015%6.60
3-012%8.17
1-012%8.60
2-18%12.20
1-18%13.07
4-07%13.50
3-17%15.11
0-06%16.54

Half-time result

Home58%1.73
Draw34%2.96
Away8%12.15

Half-time goals

Over 0.574%1.36
Under 0.526%3.79
Over 1.538%2.60
Under 1.562%1.63

Half-time / full-time

Home/Home55%1.82
Home/Draw2%40.22
Home/Away<1%266.93
Draw/Home22%4.64
Draw/Draw10%10.49
Draw/Away3%36.24
Away/Home2%40.86
Away/Draw2%40.22
Away/Away3%30.32

Corners (match total)

Indicative
Over 8.577%1.30
Under 8.523%4.34
Over 9.566%1.51
Under 9.534%2.95
Over 10.554%1.84
Under 10.546%2.18
Over 11.542%2.36
Under 11.558%1.73
Over 12.531%3.19
Under 12.569%1.46

Expected total: 11.0

AR corners

Indicative
Over 3.575%1.33
Under 3.525%4.02
Over 4.558%1.72
Under 4.542%2.38
Over 5.540%2.47
Under 5.560%1.68
Over 6.526%3.92
Under 6.574%1.34

Expected total: 5.1

DZ corners

Indicative
Over 3.584%1.19
Under 3.516%6.24
Over 4.570%1.43
Under 4.530%3.35
Over 5.554%1.86
Under 5.546%2.17
Over 6.538%2.65
Under 6.562%1.61

Expected total: 5.9

Yellow cards (match total)

Indicative
Over 2.575%1.33
Under 2.525%4.07
Over 3.556%1.80
Under 3.544%2.25
Over 4.536%2.77
Under 4.564%1.57
Over 5.521%4.83
Under 5.579%1.26

Expected total: 4.0

AR anytime goalscorer

Indicative

very low sample (n=0)

N. González (Attacker)52%1.94
J. Foyth (?)22%4.65
S. Agüero (?)22%4.65
P. Dybala (?)22%4.65
E. Andrada (?)22%4.65
P. Gómez (?)22%4.65
N. Valentini (?)22%4.65
T. Geralnik (?)22%4.65

Expected total: 2.4

DZ anytime goalscorer

Indicative

low sample (n=1)

A. Benbouali (Attacker)17%5.87
A. Boulbina (Attacker)15%6.68
F. Ghedjemis (Attacker)15%6.68
Y. Brahimi (?)5%18.98
I. Belfodil (?)5%18.98
Y. Atal (?)5%18.98
M. Belkhither (?)5%18.98
B. Bounedjah (?)5%18.98

Expected total: 0.8

Probabilities and fair odds are derived from the model's full score-line distribution (expected goals: home 2.42, away 0.54). Half-time and HT/FT markets use a 45/55 first-half split. These are model estimates, not a betting guarantee.