All matches
Algeria vs Austria
Group J · Matchday 3
· Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City
Goals (6)
Cards (1)
11'
Austria
M. Arnautovic
Substitutions (9)
46'Austria
↑ F. Grillitsch for X. Schlager
46'Austria
↑ P. Wanner for R. Schmid
46'Austria
↑ M. Gregoritsch for M. Arnautovic
62'Austria
↑ K. Danso for D. Alaba
71'
Algeria
↑ R. Ait-Nouri for J. Hadjam
71'Algeria
↑ S. Chergui for R. Belghali
71'Algeria
↑ Z. Belaid for A. Gouiri
94'Algeria
↑ F. Ghedjemis for H. Aouar
95'Austria
↑ S. Kalajdzic for P. Mwene
Match stats
65%Possession35%
12Shots9
5Shots on target2
1.59Expected goals1.18
0Corners3
3Fouls7
1Offsides3
0Saves2
94%Pass accuracy87%
Top performer
RMR. Mahrez
Algeria · 2 goals
Lineups
Algeria4-3-3
What's at stake
Matchday 3, final group game. Both sides know the exact result they need.
Season form comparison
sample home 4 · away 4
1.25
Goals / match
1.50
2.25
Conceded / match
2.25
50%
BTTS rate
50%
0%
Clean sheet rate
0%
0.00
xG / match (club)
2.27
6.2
Corners / match
4.9
2.3
Yellows / match
1.7
60%
Possession
59%
Head to head · 1 meetings
0
Algeria wins
1
Draws
0
Austria wins
Last: Algeria 0-0 Austria (2026-06-28)avg 0.0 goals
Absences
model swing: 0 / 0 pp
Algeria
No known absences.
Austria
No known absences.
Win probability
Pre-match
The chart fills in from kickoff. We compute live win probability every 30 seconds.
Updated every 30s. Lines smoothed.
The model's read
Medium confidenceResult: Austria are slight favourites at 54%, but it is far from settled.
Goals: Goals are a coin-flip around the 2.5 line (over 54%).
Most likely score 1-1 (12%)
Why the model leans this way
Factor contributions
home←·→away
Club xG form
-3.0%/+1.1%
Rest days
-2.0%/+2.0%
Travel
-3.0%/-3.0%
Two-model view
Second model api-football
Two models moderately agreeAlgeria
10%
Draw
45%
Austria
45%
Their internal ratings (0-100)
50·
Form
·50
40·
Attack
·60
43·
Defence
·57
Their advice: Double chance : draw or Austria
Surfaced for transparency. We don't blend api-football's numbers into our model — a second opinion, not a vote.
Match analysis
Score-line probability
brighter = more likely
Algeria goals
7
9
10
6
5
12
10
6
5
5
0123456
Austria goals
Most likely: 1-1 12%, 1-2 10%, 0-2 10%. Outlined cells are draws.
Total goals
over 2.5 = 53%
70
141
252
223
164
95
66+
Brighter bars are 3+ goals (over 2.5). Dashed line is the O/U 2.5 split.
Team comparison
AlgeriaAustria
Percentile vs all 48 teams. Further out is stronger.
Fair odds for every market
How to use this
Fair odds is the lowest price worth taking. It is where a bet breaks even. If your bookmaker offers a bigger number than the fair odds here, the model says that's value. Shop around: the same bet is often priced differently across books.
Match result
Home win20%5.00
Draw26%3.86
Away win54%1.85
Double chance
Home or draw46%2.18
Home or away74%1.35
Draw or away80%1.25
Draw no bet
Home (DNB)27%3.70
Away (DNB)73%1.37
Total goals
Over 0.593%1.08
Under 0.57%13.55
Over 1.579%1.27
Under 1.521%4.68
Over 2.554%1.87
Under 2.546%2.15
Over 3.531%3.20
Under 3.569%1.45
Over 4.516%6.44
Under 4.584%1.18
Odd / even goals
Odd47%2.13
Even53%1.89
Exact total goals
0 goals7%13.55
1 goals14%7.15
2 goals25%3.98
3 goals22%4.49
4 goals16%6.37
5 goals9%11.30
6+ goals7%14.98
Both teams to score
Yes54%1.84
No46%2.19
Team totals
Home over 0.563%1.58
Home over 1.527%3.77
Home over 2.58%12.40
Away over 0.584%1.19
Away over 1.554%1.84
Away over 2.527%3.65
Clean sheet
Home clean sheet16%6.15
Away clean sheet37%2.72
Win to nil
Home win to nil9%11.27
Away win to nil29%3.41
Asian handicap (home)
Home -2.52%50.38
Home -1.57%13.76
Home -0.519%5.21
Home +0.545%2.23
Home +1.568%1.48
Home +2.585%1.18
Correct score (top 8)
1-112%8.15
1-210%10.13
0-210%10.15
0-19%10.61
0-07%13.55
1-36%16.73
0-36%16.76
2-15%18.37
Half-time result
Home19%5.28
Draw39%2.53
Away42%2.40
Half-time goals
Over 0.572%1.39
Under 0.528%3.56
Over 1.536%2.76
Under 1.564%1.57
Half-time / full-time
Home/Home11%8.76
Home/Draw5%21.67
Home/Away3%34.54
Draw/Home8%12.75
Draw/Draw14%7.32
Draw/Away18%5.56
Away/Home1%73.51
Away/Draw5%21.67
Away/Away36%2.81
Corners (match total)
IndicativeOver 8.577%1.29
Under 8.523%4.39
Over 9.566%1.50
Under 9.534%2.98
Over 10.555%1.83
Under 10.545%2.20
Over 11.543%2.34
Under 11.557%1.74
Over 12.532%3.16
Under 12.568%1.46
Expected total: 11.1
DZ corners
IndicativeOver 3.584%1.19
Under 3.516%6.24
Over 4.570%1.43
Under 4.530%3.35
Over 5.554%1.86
Under 5.546%2.17
Over 6.538%2.65
Under 6.562%1.61
Expected total: 5.9
AT corners
IndicativeOver 3.576%1.32
Under 3.524%4.08
Over 4.559%1.71
Under 4.541%2.41
Over 5.541%2.44
Under 5.559%1.69
Over 6.526%3.85
Under 6.574%1.35
Expected total: 5.2
Yellow cards (match total)
IndicativeOver 2.576%1.32
Under 2.524%4.08
Over 3.556%1.79
Under 3.544%2.26
Over 4.536%2.76
Under 4.564%1.57
Over 5.521%4.81
Under 5.579%1.26
Expected total: 4.0
DZ anytime goalscorer
Indicativelow sample (n=1)
A. Benbouali (Attacker)29%3.42
A. Boulbina (Attacker)26%3.85
F. Ghedjemis (Attacker)26%3.85
Y. Brahimi (?)10%10.49
I. Belfodil (?)10%10.49
Y. Atal (?)10%10.49
M. Belkhither (?)10%10.49
B. Bounedjah (?)10%10.49
Expected total: 1.4
AT anytime goalscorer
Indicativevery low sample (n=0)
G. Burgstaller (?)17%6.02
F. Grillitsch (Midfielder)17%6.02
J. Baumgartlinger (?)17%6.02
A. Ulmer (?)17%6.02
X. Schlager (Midfielder)17%6.02
S. Ilsanker (?)17%6.02
D. Ljubičić (Midfielder)17%6.02
M. Entrup (?)17%6.02
Expected total: 1.5
Probabilities and fair odds are derived from the model's full score-line distribution (expected goals: home 1.00, away 1.82). Half-time and HT/FT markets use a 45/55 first-half split. These are model estimates, not a betting guarantee.