Argentina vs Austria

Group J · Matchday 2

· AT&T Stadium, Dallas

Group J standings →Bracket →AR 100% · AT 100% to advance

Argentina

70%

FT

2–0

Austria

10%

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Goals (2)

38'

L. Messi

assist: F. Medina

Argentina
90'

L. Messi

Argentina

Missed penalties (1)

9'

L. Messimiss

Argentina

Cards (4)

40'

S. Posch

Austria
76'

F. Medina

Argentina
76'

K. Laimer

Austria
92'

L. Paredes

Argentina

Substitutions (10)

57'

↑ N. Otamendi for C. Romero

Argentina
64'

↑ J. Alvarez for T. Almada

Argentina
65'

↑ N. Gonzalez for L. Martinez

Argentina
67'

↑ M. Friedl for D. Alaba

Austria
68'

↑ M. Arnautovic for P. Wanner

Austria
68'

↑ A. Prass for S. Posch

Austria
78'

↑ P. Wimmer for R. Schmid

Austria
82'

↑ L. Paredes for R. de Paul

Argentina
82'

↑ N. Tagliafico for F. Medina

Argentina
85'

↑ C. Chukwuemeka for M. Gregoritsch

Austria

Match stats

54%Possession46%
8Shots6
2Shots on target1
1.58Expected goals0.41
1Corners3
13Fouls12
2Offsides0
1Saves1
90%Pass accuracy86%

Top performer

LM

L. Messi

Argentina · 2 goals

Lineups

Argentina4-4-2

Austria4-2-3-1

What's at stake

Matchday 2, Group J. The losing side here typically needs a Matchday 3 win plus favourable other-game results to advance.

Season form comparison

sample home 8 · away 4

2.38
Goals / match
1.50
1.00
Conceded / match
2.25
62%
BTTS rate
50%
25%
Clean sheet rate
0%
2.22
xG / match (club)
2.27
5.3
Corners / match
4.9
1.4
Yellows / match
1.7
61%
Possession
59%

Head to head · 1 meetings

0

Argentina wins

1

Draws

0

Austria wins

Last: Argentina 0-0 Austria (2026-06-22)avg 0.0 goals

Absences

model swing: 0 / 0 pp

Argentina

No known absences.

Austria

No known absences.

Win probability

Pre-match

The chart fills in from kickoff. We compute live win probability every 30 seconds.

Updated every 30s. Lines smoothed.

The model's read

High confidence

  • Result: Argentina are strong favourites at 70%.

  • Goals: Goals expected. Over 2.5 lands 58% of the time.

Most likely score 2-0 (13%)

Why the model leans this way

Factor contributions

home←·→away

Rest days
-6.0%/+6.0%
Travel
0.0%/-1.0%

Two-model view

Second model api-football

Two models moderately agree

Argentina

45%

Draw

45%

Austria

10%

Their internal ratings (0-100)

50·
Form
·50
50·
Attack
·50
100·
Defence
·0

Their advice: Double chance : Argentina or draw

Surfaced for transparency. We don't blend api-football's numbers into our model — a second opinion, not a vote.

Match analysis

Score-line probability

brighter = more likely

Argentina goals
6
10
9
13
9
10
7
5
4
0123456

Austria goals

Most likely: 2-0 13%, 1-0 10%, 3-0 10%. Outlined cells are draws.

Total goals

over 2.5 = 58%

6
0
12
1
23
2
22
3
17
4
10
5
8
6+

Brighter bars are 3+ goals (over 2.5). Dashed line is the O/U 2.5 split.

Team comparison

AttackDefenceRatingSet-pieceattackSet-piecedefence
ArgentinaAustria

Percentile vs all 48 teams. Further out is stronger.

Fair odds for every market

How to use this

Fair odds is the lowest price worth taking. It is where a bet breaks even. If your bookmaker offers a bigger number than the fair odds here, the model says that's value. Shop around: the same bet is often priced differently across books.

Match result

Home win70%1.43
Draw19%5.15
Away win10%9.54

Double chance

Home or draw90%1.12
Home or away81%1.24
Draw or away30%3.35

Draw no bet

Home (DNB)87%1.15
Away (DNB)13%7.69

Total goals

Over 0.594%1.06
Under 0.56%17.03
Over 1.582%1.22
Under 1.518%5.46
Over 2.558%1.71
Under 2.542%2.41
Over 3.536%2.77
Under 3.564%1.56
Over 4.519%5.24
Under 4.581%1.24

Odd / even goals

Odd48%2.09
Even52%1.91

Exact total goals

0 goals6%17.03
1 goals12%8.03
2 goals23%4.31
3 goals22%4.46
4 goals17%5.88
5 goals10%9.69
6+ goals9%11.42

Both teams to score

Yes48%2.07
No52%1.94

Team totals

Home over 0.590%1.11
Home over 1.567%1.50
Home over 2.540%2.49
Away over 0.553%1.90
Away over 1.517%5.80
Away over 2.54%24.93

Clean sheet

Home clean sheet47%2.11
Away clean sheet10%9.86

Win to nil

Home win to nil42%2.41
Away win to nil4%23.44

Asian handicap (home)

Home -2.527%3.67
Home -1.549%2.05
Home -0.571%1.41
Home +0.591%1.10
Home +1.597%1.03
Home +2.599%1.01

Correct score (top 8)

2-013%7.95
1-010%10.07
3-010%10.42
2-19%10.64
1-19%10.78
3-17%13.94
0-06%17.03
4-05%18.20

Half-time result

Home53%1.89
Draw35%2.85
Away12%8.37

Half-time goals

Over 0.574%1.34
Under 0.526%3.92
Over 1.540%2.52
Under 1.560%1.66

Half-time / full-time

Home/Home49%2.05
Home/Draw3%29.57
Home/Away1%140.21
Draw/Home20%4.91
Draw/Draw11%9.52
Draw/Away4%23.58
Away/Home3%33.66
Away/Draw3%29.57
Away/Away6%17.85

Corners (match total)

Indicative
Over 8.570%1.44
Under 8.530%3.29
Over 9.557%1.74
Under 9.543%2.35
Over 10.545%2.22
Under 10.555%1.82
Over 11.533%3.00
Under 11.567%1.50
Over 12.523%4.27
Under 12.577%1.31

Expected total: 10.3

AR corners

Indicative
Over 3.575%1.33
Under 3.525%4.02
Over 4.558%1.72
Under 4.542%2.38
Over 5.540%2.47
Under 5.560%1.68
Over 6.526%3.92
Under 6.574%1.34

Expected total: 5.1

AT corners

Indicative
Over 3.576%1.32
Under 3.524%4.08
Over 4.559%1.71
Under 4.541%2.41
Over 5.541%2.44
Under 5.559%1.69
Over 6.526%3.85
Under 6.574%1.35

Expected total: 5.2

Yellow cards (match total)

Indicative
Over 2.569%1.45
Under 2.531%3.20
Over 3.547%2.11
Under 3.553%1.90
Over 4.528%3.53
Under 4.572%1.40
Over 5.515%6.73
Under 5.585%1.17

Expected total: 3.5

AR anytime goalscorer

Indicative

very low sample (n=0)

N. González (Attacker)50%2.01
J. Foyth (?)20%4.89
S. Agüero (?)20%4.89
P. Dybala (?)20%4.89
E. Andrada (?)20%4.89
P. Gómez (?)20%4.89
N. Valentini (?)20%4.89
T. Geralnik (?)20%4.89

Expected total: 2.3

AT anytime goalscorer

Indicative

very low sample (n=0)

G. Burgstaller (?)7%13.89
F. Grillitsch (Midfielder)7%13.89
J. Baumgartlinger (?)7%13.89
A. Ulmer (?)7%13.89
X. Schlager (Midfielder)7%13.89
S. Ilsanker (?)7%13.89
D. Ljubičić (Midfielder)7%13.89
M. Entrup (?)7%13.89

Expected total: 0.6

Probabilities and fair odds are derived from the model's full score-line distribution (expected goals: home 2.29, away 0.75). Half-time and HT/FT markets use a 45/55 first-half split. These are model estimates, not a betting guarantee.