Team
Portugal vs DR Congo
Group K · Matchday 1
· NRG Stadium, Houston
Cards (4)
13'
Portugal
Bernardo Silva
32'
DR Congo
Chancel Mbemba
88'Portugal
Nélson Semedo
92'Portugal
Tomás Araújo
Substitutions (9)
46'Portugal
↑ F. Conceicao for B. Silva
57'DR Congo
↑ N. Sadiki for N. Mukau
71'Portugal
↑ R. Leao for P. Neto
72'Portugal
↑ N. Semedo for N. Mendes
74'DR Congo
↑ J. Kayembe for A. Masuaku
74'DR Congo
↑ C. Pickel for E. Kayembe
83'Portugal
↑ G. Ramos for Vitinha
85'DR Congo
↑ G. Kalulu for A. Wan-Bissaka
85'DR Congo
↑ S. Banza for C. Bakambu
Match stats
75%Possession25%
7Shots8
1Shots on target2
0.65Expected goals0.87
5Corners4
9Fouls10
3Offsides2
1Saves0
92%Pass accuracy78%
Top performer
JNJ. Neves
Portugal · 1 goal
Lineups
Portugal4-2-3-1
What's at stake
Matchday 1, Group K opener. A win swings ~30 percentage points of qualification odds.
Season form comparison
sample home 5 · away 4
1.60
Goals / match
1.25
0.60
Conceded / match
1.25
40%
BTTS rate
75%
40%
Clean sheet rate
0%
3.07
xG / match (club)
0.00
7.1
Corners / match
4.3
1.7
Yellows / match
1.3
66%
Possession
44%
Portugal · last 5
Head to head · 1 meetings
0
Portugal wins
1
Draws
0
DR Congo wins
Last: Portugal 1-1 Congo DR (2026-06-17)avg 2.0 goals
Absences
model swing: 0 / 0 pp
Portugal
No known absences.
DR Congo
No known absences.
Win probability
Pre-match
The chart fills in from kickoff. We compute live win probability every 30 seconds.
Updated every 30s. Lines smoothed.
The model's read
High confidenceResult: Portugal are strong favourites at 66%.
Goals: A low-scoring game looks likely. Under 2.5 is favoured (63%).
Both score: Expect at least one clean sheet. Both-teams-score is just 31%.
Most likely score 1-0 (19%)
Why the model leans this way
Factor contributions
home←·→away
Rest days
-6.0%/+6.0%
Club xG form
+3.3%/-5.2%
Set pieces
+1.1%/-0.7%
Travel
0.0%/-1.0%
Two-model view
Second model api-football
Two models divergePortugal
33%
Draw
33%
DR Congo
33%
Their internal ratings (0-100)
0·
Form
·0
0·
Attack
·0
0·
Defence
·0
Their advice: No predictions available
Surfaced for transparency. We don't blend api-football's numbers into our model — a second opinion, not a vote.
Key players to watch
DR Congo
No per-90 data for this squad yet.
Per-90 stats: Rising Transfers (risingtransfers.com), CC BY 4.0
Match analysis
Score-line probability
brighter = more likely
Portugal goals
13
4
19
10
17
8
10
4
4
0123456
DR Congo goals
Most likely: 1-0 19%, 2-0 17%, 0-0 13%. Outlined cells are draws.
Total goals
over 2.5 = 36%
130
231
282
193
104
45
26+
Brighter bars are 3+ goals (over 2.5). Dashed line is the O/U 2.5 split.
Team comparison
PortugalDR Congo
Percentile vs all 48 teams. Further out is stronger.
Fair odds for every market
How to use this
Fair odds is the lowest price worth taking. It is where a bet breaks even. If your bookmaker offers a bigger number than the fair odds here, the model says that's value. Shop around: the same bet is often priced differently across books.
Match result
Home win66%1.51
Draw25%4.06
Away win9%11.14
Double chance
Home or draw91%1.10
Home or away75%1.33
Draw or away34%2.98
Draw no bet
Home (DNB)88%1.14
Away (DNB)12%8.40
Total goals
Over 0.587%1.15
Under 0.513%7.85
Over 1.565%1.55
Under 1.535%2.83
Over 2.537%2.74
Under 2.563%1.58
Over 3.517%5.81
Under 3.583%1.21
Over 4.57%14.74
Under 4.593%1.07
Odd / even goals
Odd47%2.13
Even53%1.89
Exact total goals
0 goals13%7.85
1 goals23%4.41
2 goals28%3.56
3 goals19%5.17
4 goals10%9.59
5 goals4%22.25
6+ goals2%43.72
Both teams to score
Yes31%3.25
No69%1.45
Team totals
Home over 0.582%1.22
Home over 1.551%1.97
Home over 2.524%4.09
Away over 0.536%2.76
Away over 1.58%13.26
Away over 2.51%91.92
Clean sheet
Home clean sheet64%1.57
Away clean sheet18%5.51
Win to nil
Home win to nil51%1.96
Away win to nil5%18.43
Asian handicap (home)
Home -2.518%5.41
Home -1.540%2.50
Home -0.567%1.49
Home +0.592%1.09
Home +1.598%1.02
Home +2.599%+1.00
Correct score (top 8)
1-019%5.38
2-017%5.93
0-013%7.85
1-110%9.96
3-010%10.44
2-18%13.19
3-14%23.19
4-04%24.47
Half-time result
Home47%2.14
Draw44%2.27
Away9%10.91
Half-time goals
Over 0.562%1.61
Under 0.538%2.64
Over 1.525%3.95
Under 1.575%1.34
Half-time / full-time
Home/Home44%2.29
Home/Draw3%35.93
Home/Away<1%281.58
Draw/Home23%4.34
Draw/Draw17%5.97
Draw/Away4%23.73
Away/Home2%57.99
Away/Draw3%35.93
Away/Away5%21.48
Corners (match total)
Indicativelow sample (n=13)
Over 8.580%1.25
Under 8.520%4.93
Over 9.570%1.44
Under 9.530%3.29
Over 10.558%1.72
Under 10.542%2.38
Over 11.546%2.17
Under 11.554%1.86
Over 12.535%2.86
Under 12.565%1.54
Expected total: 11.3
PT corners
IndicativeOver 3.591%1.10
Under 3.59%11.09
Over 4.581%1.23
Under 4.519%5.33
Over 5.568%1.47
Under 5.532%3.12
Over 6.553%1.90
Under 6.547%2.11
Expected total: 6.8
CD corners
Indicativelow sample (n=13)
Over 3.566%1.52
Under 3.534%2.92
Over 4.547%2.14
Under 4.553%1.88
Over 5.530%3.37
Under 5.570%1.42
Over 6.517%5.92
Under 6.583%1.20
Expected total: 4.5
Yellow cards (match total)
IndicativeOver 2.558%1.72
Under 2.542%2.39
Over 3.536%2.79
Under 3.564%1.56
Over 4.519%5.30
Under 4.581%1.23
Over 5.59%11.58
Under 5.591%1.09
Expected total: 3.0
PT anytime goalscorer
Indicativevery low sample (n=0)
João Félix (Attacker)40%2.50
Raphaël Guerreiro (?)16%6.38
João Mário (?)16%6.38
Mário Rui (?)16%6.38
Pepe (?)16%6.38
Diogo Leite (?)16%6.38
Éderzito António Macedo Lopes (?)16%6.38
Bruno Varela (?)16%6.38
Expected total: 1.7
CD anytime goalscorer
Indicativelow sample (n=2)
F. Mayele (Attacker)14%6.95
B. Cipenga (Attacker)14%6.95
S. Banza (Attacker)13%7.92
G. Kakuta (Attacker)13%7.92
W. Balikwisha (?)4%22.73
S. Bastien (?)4%22.73
M. Bokadi (?)4%22.73
P. M'Poku (?)4%22.73
Expected total: 0.8
Probabilities and fair odds are derived from the model's full score-line distribution (expected goals: home 1.71, away 0.45). Half-time and HT/FT markets use a 45/55 first-half split. These are model estimates, not a betting guarantee.