WC26

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Model estimates, not guarantees. A strong edge can still lose. For 18+ only. Bet only what you can afford to lose, and take a break if it stops being fun.

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World Cup odds

Portugal

Group K

Portugal

Coach Roberto Martinez · Rating 2008

The model's outlook

Win the group
<1%
Reach last 32
99%+
Reach last 16
68%
Reach quarters
30%
Reach semis
20%
Reach final
12%
Win the World Cup
6%

Chance of still being alive at each stage, across 20,000 tournament simulations.

Team strengths

AttackDefenceRatingSet-pieceattackSet-piecedefence
Portugal

Percentile vs all 48 teams. Further out is stronger.

Recent form

DWDWL
DHDR Congo flagDR Congo1-117 JuneWHUzbekistan flagUzbekistan5-023 JuneDAColombia flagColombia0-027 JuneWHCroatia flagCroatia2-12 JulyLHSpain flagSpain0-16 July

Group K

1Colombia3P72Portugal3P53DR Congo3P44Uzbekistan3P0

Squad (20)

Midfielders

Rúben Neves

Rúben Neves

Midfielder · 28

0.38 G/90 · 0.23 A/90 · 7.87 rating · 2025-26

30

Goals

16

Asts

Attackers

João Félix

João Félix

Attacker · 26

0.60 G/90 · 0.35 A/90 · 7.82 rating · 2025-26

72

Goals

31

Asts

Portugal's knockout path

across 20k sims

R32 100%

vs Croatia

100% of paths

R16 68%

vs Spain

59% of paths

QF 30%

vs Belgium

17% of paths

SF 20%

vs France

9% of paths

Final 12%

vs Argentina

4% of paths

Round of 32

  • Croatia100%

Round of 16

  • Spain59%
  • Austria9%

Quarter-final

  • Belgium17%
  • United States6%
  • Senegal6%
  • Bosnia and Herzegovina2%

Semi-final

  • France9%
  • Netherlands4%
  • Germany3%
  • Morocco2%
  • Canada1%

Final

  • Argentina4%
  • Brazil2%
  • Colombia2%
  • England2%
  • Switzerland1%