Portugal vs DR Congo
Group K · Matchday 1
· NRG Stadium, Houston
Cards (4)
Bernardo Silva
Chancel Mbemba
Nélson Semedo
Tomás Araújo
Substitutions (9)
↑ F. Conceicao for B. Silva
↑ N. Sadiki for N. Mukau
↑ R. Leao for P. Neto
↑ N. Semedo for N. Mendes
↑ J. Kayembe for A. Masuaku
↑ C. Pickel for E. Kayembe
↑ G. Ramos for Vitinha
↑ G. Kalulu for A. Wan-Bissaka
↑ S. Banza for C. Bakambu
Match stats
Top performer
JNJ. Neves
Portugal · 1 goal
Lineups
Portugal4-2-3-1
What's at stake
Matchday 1, Group K opener. A win swings ~30 percentage points of qualification odds.
Season form comparison
sample home 5 · away 4
Portugal · last 5
Head to head · 1 meetings
0
Portugal wins
1
Draws
0
DR Congo wins
Absences
model swing: 0 / 0 pp
Portugal
No known absences.
DR Congo
No known absences.
Win probability
Pre-match
The chart fills in from kickoff. We compute live win probability every 30 seconds.
Updated every 30s. Lines smoothed.
The model's read
High confidenceResult: Portugal are strong favourites at 66%.
Goals: A low-scoring game looks likely. Under 2.5 is favoured (63%).
Both score: Expect at least one clean sheet. Both-teams-score is just 31%.
Why the model leans this way
Factor contributions
home←·→away
Two-model view
Second model api-football
Two models divergePortugal
33%
Draw
33%
DR Congo
33%
Their internal ratings (0-100)
Their advice: No predictions available
Surfaced for transparency. We don't blend api-football's numbers into our model — a second opinion, not a vote.
Key players to watch
DR Congo
No per-90 data for this squad yet.
Per-90 stats: Rising Transfers (risingtransfers.com), CC BY 4.0
Match analysis
Score-line probability
brighter = more likely
DR Congo goals
Most likely: 1-0 19%, 2-0 17%, 0-0 13%. Outlined cells are draws.
Total goals
over 2.5 = 36%
Brighter bars are 3+ goals (over 2.5). Dashed line is the O/U 2.5 split.
Team comparison
Percentile vs all 48 teams. Further out is stronger.
Fair odds for every market
How to use this
Fair odds is the lowest price worth taking. It is where a bet breaks even. If your bookmaker offers a bigger number than the fair odds here, the model says that's value. Shop around: the same bet is often priced differently across books.
Match result
Double chance
Draw no bet
Total goals
Odd / even goals
Exact total goals
Both teams to score
Team totals
Clean sheet
Win to nil
Asian handicap (home)
Correct score (top 8)
Half-time result
Half-time goals
Half-time / full-time
Corners (match total)
Indicativelow sample (n=13)
Expected total: 11.3
PT corners
IndicativeExpected total: 6.8
CD corners
Indicativelow sample (n=13)
Expected total: 4.5
Yellow cards (match total)
IndicativeExpected total: 3.0
PT anytime goalscorer
Indicativevery low sample (n=0)
Expected total: 1.7
CD anytime goalscorer
Indicativelow sample (n=2)
Expected total: 0.8
Probabilities and fair odds are derived from the model's full score-line distribution (expected goals: home 1.71, away 0.45). Half-time and HT/FT markets use a 45/55 first-half split. These are model estimates, not a betting guarantee.