Team
Portugal vs Uzbekistan
Group K · Matchday 2
· NRG Stadium, Houston
Goals (5)
Cards (2)
14'
Uzbekistan
O. Khamrobekov
68'
Portugal
R. Veiga
Substitutions (10)
46'Portugal
↑ N. Semedo for J. Cancelo
46'Portugal
↑ F. Conceicao for P. Neto
46'Uzbekistan
↑ K. Alizhonov for S. Nasrullaev
46'Uzbekistan
↑ A. Mozgovoy for O. Khamrobekov
63'Portugal
↑ Trincao for Joao Felix
73'Uzbekistan
↑ I. Sergeev for A. Fayzullaev
76'Portugal
↑ B. Silva for J. Neves
83'Portugal
↑ R. Leao for Vitinha
92'Uzbekistan
↑ R. Jiyanov for B. Karimov
92'Uzbekistan
↑ S. Esanov for O. Shukurov
Match stats
66%Possession34%
16Shots7
9Shots on target2
2.36Expected goals0.24
3Corners2
13Fouls14
1Offsides1
2Saves4
90%Pass accuracy81%
Top performer
CRC. Ronaldo
Portugal · 2 goals
Lineups
Portugal4-2-3-1
What's at stake
Matchday 2, Group K. The losing side here typically needs a Matchday 3 win plus favourable other-game results to advance.
Season form comparison
sample home 5 · away 3
1.60
Goals / match
0.67
0.60
Conceded / match
3.67
40%
BTTS rate
67%
40%
Clean sheet rate
0%
3.07
xG / match (club)
0.00
7.1
Corners / match
4.3
1.7
Yellows / match
1.4
66%
Possession
48%
Portugal · last 5
Uzbekistan · last 3
Head to head · 1 meetings
0
Portugal wins
1
Draws
0
Uzbekistan wins
Last: Portugal 0-0 Uzbekistan (2026-06-23)avg 0.0 goals
Absences
model swing: 0 / 0 pp
Portugal
No known absences.
Uzbekistan
No known absences.
Win probability
Pre-match
The chart fills in from kickoff. We compute live win probability every 30 seconds.
Updated every 30s. Lines smoothed.
The model's read
High confidenceResult: Portugal are strong favourites at 86%.
Goals: Goals expected. Over 2.5 lands 63% of the time.
Both score: Expect at least one clean sheet. Both-teams-score is just 32%.
Most likely score 2-0 (16%)
Why the model leans this way
Factor contributions
home←·→away
Rest days
-6.0%/+6.0%
Club xG form
+3.3%/-3.9%
Set pieces
+1.1%/-0.6%
Travel
0.0%/-1.0%
Two-model view
Second model api-football
Two models divergePortugal
45%
Draw
45%
Uzbekistan
10%
Their internal ratings (0-100)
100·
Form
·0
50·
Attack
·50
75·
Defence
·25
Their advice: Double chance : Portugal or draw
Surfaced for transparency. We don't blend api-football's numbers into our model — a second opinion, not a vote.
Key players to watch
Uzbekistan
No per-90 data for this squad yet.
Per-90 stats: Rising Transfers (risingtransfers.com), CC BY 4.0
Match analysis
Score-line probability
brighter = more likely
Portugal goals
4
10
5
16
6
15
6
11
4
6
0123456
Uzbekistan goals
Most likely: 2-0 16%, 3-0 15%, 4-0 11%. Outlined cells are draws.
Total goals
over 2.5 = 60%
40
111
212
223
184
125
86+
Brighter bars are 3+ goals (over 2.5). Dashed line is the O/U 2.5 split.
Team comparison
PortugalUzbekistan
Percentile vs all 48 teams. Further out is stronger.
Fair odds for every market
How to use this
Fair odds is the lowest price worth taking. It is where a bet breaks even. If your bookmaker offers a bigger number than the fair odds here, the model says that's value. Shop around: the same bet is often priced differently across books.
Match result
Home win86%1.16
Draw11%9.10
Away win3%31.68
Double chance
Home or draw97%1.03
Home or away89%1.12
Draw or away14%7.07
Draw no bet
Home (DNB)96%1.04
Away (DNB)4%28.20
Total goals
Over 0.596%1.05
Under 0.54%22.35
Over 1.584%1.19
Under 1.516%6.27
Over 2.563%1.59
Under 2.537%2.70
Over 3.541%2.45
Under 3.559%1.69
Over 4.523%4.40
Under 4.577%1.29
Odd / even goals
Odd49%2.05
Even51%1.95
Exact total goals
0 goals4%22.35
1 goals11%8.71
2 goals21%4.74
3 goals22%4.51
4 goals18%5.55
5 goals12%8.55
6+ goals11%9.05
Both teams to score
Yes32%3.14
No68%1.47
Team totals
Home over 0.594%1.06
Home over 1.578%1.29
Home over 2.554%1.85
Away over 0.533%3.01
Away over 1.56%15.97
Away over 2.51%122.81
Clean sheet
Home clean sheet67%1.50
Away clean sheet6%17.15
Win to nil
Home win to nil62%1.61
Away win to nil1%73.69
Asian handicap (home)
Home -2.546%2.20
Home -1.568%1.47
Home -0.586%1.16
Home +0.597%1.03
Home +1.599%1.01
Home +2.599%+1.00
Correct score (top 8)
2-016%6.36
3-015%6.71
4-011%9.45
1-010%9.54
2-16%15.74
3-16%16.62
5-06%16.62
1-15%19.79
Half-time result
Home66%1.52
Draw29%3.46
Away5%19.35
Half-time goals
Over 0.577%1.30
Under 0.523%4.31
Over 1.543%2.33
Under 1.557%1.75
Half-time / full-time
Home/Home64%1.56
Home/Draw2%63.85
Home/Away<1%576.10
Draw/Home21%4.80
Draw/Draw7%14.95
Draw/Away1%70.37
Away/Home2%49.73
Away/Draw2%63.85
Away/Away2%62.82
Corners (match total)
Indicativelow sample (n=12)
Over 8.580%1.25
Under 8.520%4.99
Over 9.570%1.43
Under 9.530%3.32
Over 10.558%1.71
Under 10.542%2.40
Over 11.547%2.15
Under 11.553%1.87
Over 12.535%2.83
Under 12.565%1.55
Expected total: 11.4
PT corners
IndicativeOver 3.591%1.10
Under 3.59%11.09
Over 4.581%1.23
Under 4.519%5.33
Over 5.568%1.47
Under 5.532%3.12
Over 6.553%1.90
Under 6.547%2.11
Expected total: 6.8
UZ corners
Indicativelow sample (n=12)
Over 3.566%1.51
Under 3.534%2.96
Over 4.547%2.11
Under 4.553%1.90
Over 5.530%3.31
Under 5.570%1.43
Over 6.517%5.79
Under 6.583%1.21
Expected total: 4.5
Yellow cards (match total)
Indicativelow sample (n=11)
Over 2.561%1.65
Under 2.539%2.54
Over 3.538%2.61
Under 3.562%1.62
Over 4.521%4.82
Under 4.579%1.26
Over 5.510%10.21
Under 5.590%1.11
Expected total: 3.1
PT anytime goalscorer
Indicativevery low sample (n=0)
João Félix (Attacker)57%1.74
Raphaël Guerreiro (?)25%4.04
João Mário (?)25%4.04
Mário Rui (?)25%4.04
Pepe (?)25%4.04
Diogo Leite (?)25%4.04
Éderzito António Macedo Lopes (?)25%4.04
Bruno Varela (?)25%4.04
Expected total: 2.8
UZ anytime goalscorer
Indicativevery low sample (n=0)
A. Amonov (Attacker)11%8.76
O. O'runov (Attacker)11%8.76
I. Sergeev (Attacker)11%8.76
A. Gʻaniyev (Attacker)11%8.76
O. Akhmedov (?)4%25.25
F. Musaev (?)4%25.25
D. Tursunov (?)4%25.25
I. Alibaev (?)4%25.25
Expected total: 0.6
Probabilities and fair odds are derived from the model's full score-line distribution (expected goals: home 2.84, away 0.40). Half-time and HT/FT markets use a 45/55 first-half split. These are model estimates, not a betting guarantee.