All matches
Uzbekistan vs Colombia
Group K · Matchday 1
· Estadio Azteca, Mexico City
Goals (4)
Cards (2)
7'
Colombia
Johan Mojica
34'
Uzbekistan
Abdukodir Khusanov
Substitutions (10)
46'Uzbekistan
↑ D. Khamdamov for O. Urunov
46'Uzbekistan
↑ F. Sayfiev for S. Nasrullaev
72'Colombia
↑ J. Campaz for J. Rodriguez
77'Uzbekistan
↑ A. Amonov for A. Fayzullaev
77'Uzbekistan
↑ J. Urozov for R. Ashurmatov
80'Colombia
↑ C. Hernandez for L. Suarez
80'Colombia
↑ R. Rios for G. Puerta
93'Uzbekistan
↑ I. Sergeev for E. Shomurodov
93'Colombia
↑ K. Castano for J. Arias
93'Colombia
↑ A. Gomez for L. Diaz
Match stats
39%Possession61%
8Shots15
2Shots on target4
1.14Expected goals1.61
3Corners4
14Fouls11
0Offsides3
1Saves1
76%Pass accuracy86%
Top performer
LDL. Diaz
Colombia · 1 goal
Lineups
Uzbekistan3-4-2-1
What's at stake
Matchday 1, Group K opener. A win swings ~30 percentage points of qualification odds.
Season form comparison
sample home 3 · away 5
0.67
Goals / match
1.00
3.67
Conceded / match
0.20
67%
BTTS rate
20%
0%
Clean sheet rate
80%
0.00
xG / match (club)
1.62
4.3
Corners / match
4.5
1.4
Yellows / match
2.2
48%
Possession
54%
Uzbekistan · last 3
Head to head · 1 meetings
0
Uzbekistan wins
0
Draws
1
Colombia wins
Last: Uzbekistan 1-3 Colombia (2026-06-18)avg 4.0 goals
Absences
model swing: 0 / 0 pp
Uzbekistan
No known absences.
Colombia
No known absences.
Win probability
Pre-match
The chart fills in from kickoff. We compute live win probability every 30 seconds.
Updated every 30s. Lines smoothed.
The model's read
High confidenceResult: Colombia are strong favourites at 77%.
Goals: Goals are a coin-flip around the 2.5 line (over 55%).
Both score: Expect at least one clean sheet. Both-teams-score is just 38%.
Most likely score 0-2 (16%)
Why the model leans this way
Factor contributions
home←·→away
Rest days
+6.0%/-6.0%
Club xG form
-4.1%/-1.5%
Travel
-3.0%/-4.0%
Two-model view
Second model api-football
Two models divergeUzbekistan
33%
Draw
33%
Colombia
33%
Their internal ratings (0-100)
0·
Form
·0
0·
Attack
·0
0·
Defence
·0
Their advice: No predictions available
Surfaced for transparency. We don't blend api-football's numbers into our model — a second opinion, not a vote.
Match analysis
Score-line probability
brighter = more likely
Uzbekistan goals
6
12
16
12
7
8
8
6
0123456
Colombia goals
Most likely: 0-2 16%, 0-1 12%, 0-3 12%. Outlined cells are draws.
Total goals
over 2.5 = 54%
60
141
242
223
164
95
66+
Brighter bars are 3+ goals (over 2.5). Dashed line is the O/U 2.5 split.
Team comparison
UzbekistanColombia
Percentile vs all 48 teams. Further out is stronger.
Fair odds for every market
How to use this
Fair odds is the lowest price worth taking. It is where a bet breaks even. If your bookmaker offers a bigger number than the fair odds here, the model says that's value. Shop around: the same bet is often priced differently across books.
Match result
Home win6%15.50
Draw17%5.97
Away win77%1.30
Double chance
Home or draw23%4.31
Home or away83%1.20
Draw or away94%1.07
Draw no bet
Home (DNB)8%12.91
Away (DNB)92%1.08
Total goals
Over 0.594%1.07
Under 0.56%15.46
Over 1.579%1.26
Under 1.521%4.82
Over 2.555%1.81
Under 2.545%2.23
Over 3.533%3.05
Under 3.567%1.49
Over 4.517%6.02
Under 4.583%1.20
Odd / even goals
Odd48%2.08
Even52%1.92
Exact total goals
0 goals6%15.46
1 goals14%7.00
2 goals24%4.15
3 goals22%4.47
4 goals16%6.20
5 goals9%10.73
6+ goals7%13.70
Both teams to score
Yes38%2.64
No62%1.61
Team totals
Home over 0.541%2.44
Home over 1.510%10.18
Home over 2.52%60.84
Away over 0.591%1.10
Away over 1.568%1.46
Away over 2.542%2.38
Clean sheet
Home clean sheet9%10.61
Away clean sheet59%1.69
Win to nil
Home win to nil3%33.84
Away win to nil53%1.90
Asian handicap (home)
Home -2.5<1%481.27
Home -1.51%74.01
Home -0.56%17.80
Home +0.522%4.47
Home +1.545%2.24
Home +2.568%1.48
Correct score (top 8)
0-216%6.44
0-112%8.16
0-312%8.18
1-28%12.24
1-18%12.79
0-47%13.85
0-06%15.46
1-36%15.54
Half-time result
Home8%12.20
Draw35%2.89
Away57%1.75
Half-time goals
Over 0.573%1.37
Under 0.527%3.67
Over 1.537%2.68
Under 1.563%1.59
Half-time / full-time
Home/Home3%30.00
Home/Draw2%40.13
Home/Away2%42.15
Draw/Home3%35.47
Draw/Draw10%10.03
Draw/Away22%4.59
Away/Home<1%273.56
Away/Draw2%40.13
Away/Away54%1.84
Corners (match total)
Indicativelow sample (n=12)
Over 8.554%1.87
Under 8.546%2.15
Over 9.540%2.48
Under 9.560%1.68
Over 10.529%3.49
Under 10.571%1.40
Over 11.519%5.25
Under 11.581%1.24
Over 12.512%8.37
Under 12.588%1.14
Expected total: 8.9
UZ corners
Indicativelow sample (n=12)
Over 3.566%1.51
Under 3.534%2.96
Over 4.547%2.11
Under 4.553%1.90
Over 5.530%3.31
Under 5.570%1.43
Over 6.517%5.79
Under 6.583%1.21
Expected total: 4.5
CO corners
IndicativeOver 3.564%1.56
Under 3.536%2.79
Over 4.545%2.22
Under 4.555%1.82
Over 5.528%3.56
Under 5.572%1.39
Over 6.516%6.37
Under 6.584%1.19
Expected total: 4.4
Yellow cards (match total)
Indicativelow sample (n=11)
Over 2.572%1.39
Under 2.528%3.54
Over 3.551%1.96
Under 3.549%2.04
Over 4.532%3.17
Under 4.568%1.46
Over 5.517%5.81
Under 5.583%1.21
Expected total: 3.7
UZ anytime goalscorer
Indicativevery low sample (n=0)
A. Amonov (Attacker)15%6.85
O. O'runov (Attacker)15%6.85
I. Sergeev (Attacker)15%6.85
A. Gʻaniyev (Attacker)15%6.85
O. Akhmedov (?)5%19.53
F. Musaev (?)5%19.53
D. Tursunov (?)5%19.53
I. Alibaev (?)5%19.53
Expected total: 0.8
CO anytime goalscorer
Indicativevery low sample (n=0)
J. Rodríguez (Attacker)51%1.97
J. Córdoba (Attacker)51%1.97
J. Murillo (?)21%4.75
I. Poveda (?)21%4.75
J. Cuadrado (?)21%4.75
A. Morelos (?)21%4.75
I. Arboleda (?)21%4.75
L. Orejuela (?)21%4.75
Expected total: 2.8
Probabilities and fair odds are derived from the model's full score-line distribution (expected goals: home 0.53, away 2.36). Half-time and HT/FT markets use a 45/55 first-half split. These are model estimates, not a betting guarantee.