Uzbekistan vs Colombia

Group K · Matchday 1

· Estadio Azteca, Mexico City

Group K standings →Bracket →UZ 0% · CO 100% to advance

Uzbekistan

1–3

HT 0–1

Colombia

77%

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Goals (4)

40'

D. Munoz

assist: L. Diaz

Colombia

60'

A. Fayzullaev

Uzbekistan

65'

L. Diaz

assist: G. Puerta

Colombia

90'

J. Campaz

assist: C. Hernandez

Colombia

Cards (2)

Johan Mojica

Colombia

34'

Abdukodir Khusanov

Uzbekistan

Substitutions (10)

46'

↑ D. Khamdamov for O. Urunov

Uzbekistan

46'

↑ F. Sayfiev for S. Nasrullaev

Uzbekistan

72'

↑ J. Campaz for J. Rodriguez

Colombia

77'

↑ A. Amonov for A. Fayzullaev

Uzbekistan

77'

↑ J. Urozov for R. Ashurmatov

Uzbekistan

80'

↑ C. Hernandez for L. Suarez

Colombia

80'

↑ R. Rios for G. Puerta

Colombia

93'

↑ I. Sergeev for E. Shomurodov

Uzbekistan

93'

↑ K. Castano for J. Arias

Colombia

93'

↑ A. Gomez for L. Diaz

Colombia

Match stats

39%Possession61%

8Shots15

2Shots on target4

1.14Expected goals1.61

3Corners4

14Fouls11

0Offsides3

1Saves1

76%Pass accuracy86%

Top performer

L. Diaz

Colombia · 1 goal

Lineups

Uzbekistan3-4-2-1

Colombia4-3-3

What's at stake

Matchday 1, Group K opener. A win swings ~30 percentage points of qualification odds.

Season form comparison

sample home 3 · away 5

0.67

Goals / match

1.00

3.67

Conceded / match

0.20

67%

BTTS rate

20%

Clean sheet rate

80%

0.00

xG / match (club)

1.62

4.3

Corners / match

4.5

1.4

Yellows / match

2.2

48%

Possession

54%

Uzbekistan · last 3

Colombia1-318 June LA

Portugal5-023 June LA

DR Congo3-127 June

Colombia · last 5

Uzbekistan1-318 June WH

DR Congo1-024 June DH

Portugal0-027 June WH

Ghana1-04 July DA

Switzerland0-07 July

Head to head · 1 meetings

Uzbekistan wins

Draws

Colombia wins

Last: Uzbekistan 1-3 Colombia (2026-06-18)avg 4.0 goals

Absences

model swing: 0 / 0 pp

Uzbekistan

No known absences.

Colombia

No known absences.

Win probability

Pre-match

The chart fills in from kickoff. We compute live win probability every 30 seconds.

Updated every 30s. Lines smoothed.

The model's read

High confidence

Result: Colombia are strong favourites at 77%.
Goals: Goals are a coin-flip around the 2.5 line (over 55%).
Both score: Expect at least one clean sheet. Both-teams-score is just 38%.

Most likely score 0-2 (16%)

Why the model leans this way

Factor contributions

home←·→away

Rest days

+6.0%/-6.0%

Club xG form

-4.1%/-1.5%

Travel

-3.0%/-4.0%

Two-model view

Second model api-football

Two models diverge

Uzbekistan

33%

Draw

33%

Colombia

33%

Their internal ratings (0-100)

0·

Form

·0

0·

Attack

·0

0·

Defence

·0

Their advice: No predictions available

Surfaced for transparency. We don't blend api-football's numbers into our model — a second opinion, not a vote.

Match analysis

Score-line probability

brighter = more likely

Uzbekistan goals

0123456

Colombia goals

Most likely: 0-2 16%, 0-1 12%, 0-3 12%. Outlined cells are draws.

Total goals

over 2.5 = 54%

Brighter bars are 3+ goals (over 2.5). Dashed line is the O/U 2.5 split.

Team comparison

UzbekistanColombia

Percentile vs all 48 teams. Further out is stronger.

Fair odds for every market

How to use this

Fair odds is the lowest price worth taking. It is where a bet breaks even. If your bookmaker offers a bigger number than the fair odds here, the model says that's value. Shop around: the same bet is often priced differently across books.

Match result

Home win6%15.50

Draw17%5.97

Away win77%1.30

Double chance

Home or draw23%4.31

Home or away83%1.20

Draw or away94%1.07

Draw no bet

Home (DNB)8%12.91

Away (DNB)92%1.08

Total goals

Over 0.594%1.07

Under 0.56%15.46

Over 1.579%1.26

Under 1.521%4.82

Over 2.555%1.81

Under 2.545%2.23

Over 3.533%3.05

Under 3.567%1.49

Over 4.517%6.02

Under 4.583%1.20

Odd / even goals

Odd48%2.08

Even52%1.92

Exact total goals

0 goals6%15.46

1 goals14%7.00

2 goals24%4.15

3 goals22%4.47

4 goals16%6.20

5 goals9%10.73

6+ goals7%13.70

Both teams to score

Yes38%2.64

No62%1.61

Team totals

Home over 0.541%2.44

Home over 1.510%10.18

Home over 2.52%60.84

Away over 0.591%1.10

Away over 1.568%1.46

Away over 2.542%2.38

Clean sheet

Home clean sheet9%10.61

Away clean sheet59%1.69

Win to nil

Home win to nil3%33.84

Away win to nil53%1.90

Asian handicap (home)

Home -2.5<1%481.27

Home -1.51%74.01

Home -0.56%17.80

Home +0.522%4.47

Home +1.545%2.24

Home +2.568%1.48

Correct score (top 8)

0-216%6.44

0-112%8.16

0-312%8.18

1-28%12.24

1-18%12.79

0-47%13.85

0-06%15.46

1-36%15.54

Half-time result

Home8%12.20

Draw35%2.89

Away57%1.75

Half-time goals

Over 0.573%1.37

Under 0.527%3.67

Over 1.537%2.68

Under 1.563%1.59

Half-time / full-time

Home/Home3%30.00

Home/Draw2%40.13

Home/Away2%42.15

Draw/Home3%35.47

Draw/Draw10%10.03

Draw/Away22%4.59

Away/Home<1%273.56

Away/Draw2%40.13

Away/Away54%1.84

Corners (match total)

Indicative

low sample (n=12)

Over 8.554%1.87

Under 8.546%2.15

Over 9.540%2.48

Under 9.560%1.68

Over 10.529%3.49

Under 10.571%1.40

Over 11.519%5.25

Under 11.581%1.24

Over 12.512%8.37

Under 12.588%1.14

Expected total: 8.9

UZ corners

Indicative

low sample (n=12)

Over 3.566%1.51

Under 3.534%2.96

Over 4.547%2.11

Under 4.553%1.90

Over 5.530%3.31

Under 5.570%1.43

Over 6.517%5.79

Under 6.583%1.21

Expected total: 4.5

CO corners

Indicative

Over 3.564%1.56

Under 3.536%2.79

Over 4.545%2.22

Under 4.555%1.82

Over 5.528%3.56

Under 5.572%1.39

Over 6.516%6.37

Under 6.584%1.19

Expected total: 4.4

Yellow cards (match total)

Indicative

low sample (n=11)

Over 2.572%1.39

Under 2.528%3.54

Over 3.551%1.96

Under 3.549%2.04

Over 4.532%3.17

Under 4.568%1.46

Over 5.517%5.81

Under 5.583%1.21

Expected total: 3.7

UZ anytime goalscorer

Indicative

very low sample (n=0)

A. Amonov (Attacker)15%6.85

O. O'runov (Attacker)15%6.85

I. Sergeev (Attacker)15%6.85

A. Gʻaniyev (Attacker)15%6.85

O. Akhmedov (?)5%19.53

F. Musaev (?)5%19.53

D. Tursunov (?)5%19.53

I. Alibaev (?)5%19.53

Expected total: 0.8

CO anytime goalscorer

Indicative

very low sample (n=0)

J. Rodríguez (Attacker)51%1.97

J. Córdoba (Attacker)51%1.97

J. Murillo (?)21%4.75

I. Poveda (?)21%4.75

J. Cuadrado (?)21%4.75

A. Morelos (?)21%4.75

I. Arboleda (?)21%4.75

L. Orejuela (?)21%4.75

Expected total: 2.8

Probabilities and fair odds are derived from the model's full score-line distribution (expected goals: home 0.53, away 2.36). Half-time and HT/FT markets use a 45/55 first-half split. These are model estimates, not a betting guarantee.