Ghana vs Panama

Group L · Matchday 1

· BMO Field, Toronto

Group L standings →Bracket →GH 100% · PA 0% to advance

Ghana

37%

1–0

HT 0–0

Panama

24%

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Goals (1)

90'

C. Yirenkyi

Ghana

Cards (3)

16'

Caleb Yirenkyi

Ghana

72'

César Blackman

Panama

99'

Carlos Harvey

Panama

Substitutions (9)

46'

↑ B. Asare for L. Ati Zigi

Ghana

58'

↑ B. Thomas-Asante for K. Sulemana

Ghana

58'

↑ I. Fatawu for E. Nuamah

Ghana

63'

↑ J. Fajardo for C. Waterman

Panama

63'

↑ A. Londono for C. Martinez

Panama

74'

↑ I. Diaz for J. Rodriguez

Panama

78'

↑ K. Sibo for E. Owusu

Ghana

87'

↑ P. Adu for J. Ayew

Ghana

90'

↑ A. Godoy for C. Blackman

Panama

Match stats

38%Possession62%

8Shots11

2Shots on target4

1.31Expected goals0.73

2Corners2

9Fouls11

4Offsides1

4Saves2

83%Pass accuracy86%

Top performer

C. Yirenkyi

Ghana · 1 goal

Lineups

Ghana4-4-1-1

Panama3-4-3

What's at stake

Matchday 1, Group L opener. A win swings ~30 percentage points of qualification odds.

Season form comparison

sample home 4 · away 3

0.50

Goals / match

0.00

0.75

Conceded / match

1.33

25%

BTTS rate

50%

Clean sheet rate

0.00

xG / match (club)

1.00

4.1

Corners / match

4.3

2.2

Yellows / match

2.0

46%

Possession

55%

Ghana · last 4

Panama · last 3

Head to head · 1 meetings

Ghana wins

Draws

Panama wins

Last: Ghana 1-0 Panama (2026-06-17)avg 1.0 goals

Absences

model swing: 0 / 0 pp

Ghana

No known absences.

Panama

No known absences.

Win probability

Pre-match

The chart fills in from kickoff. We compute live win probability every 30 seconds.

Updated every 30s. Lines smoothed.

The model's read

Wide-open match

Result: Too close to call. A draw is the single most likely outcome at 39%.
Goals: A low-scoring game looks likely. Under 2.5 is favoured (80%).
Both score: Expect at least one clean sheet. Both-teams-score is just 30%.

Most likely score 0-0 (23%)

Why the model leans this way

Factor contributions

home←·→away

Rest days

-6.0%/+6.0%

Travel

-1.0%/0.0%

Club xG form

-3.3%/-3.9%

Two-model view

Second model api-football

Two models moderately agree

Ghana

33%

Draw

33%

Panama

33%

Their internal ratings (0-100)

0·

Form

·0

0·

Attack

·0

0·

Defence

·0

Their advice: No predictions available

Surfaced for transparency. We don't blend api-football's numbers into our model — a second opinion, not a vote.

Match analysis

Score-line probability

brighter = more likely

Ghana goals

0123456

Panama goals

Most likely: 0-0 23%, 1-0 17%, 1-1 14%. Outlined cells are draws.

Total goals

over 2.5 = 20%

Brighter bars are 3+ goals (over 2.5). Dashed line is the O/U 2.5 split.

Team comparison

GhanaPanama

Percentile vs all 48 teams. Further out is stronger.

Fair odds for every market

How to use this

Fair odds is the lowest price worth taking. It is where a bet breaks even. If your bookmaker offers a bigger number than the fair odds here, the model says that's value. Shop around: the same bet is often priced differently across books.

Match result

Home win37%2.71

Draw39%2.57

Away win24%4.14

Double chance

Home or draw76%1.32

Home or away61%1.64

Draw or away63%1.59

Draw no bet

Home (DNB)60%1.65

Away (DNB)40%2.53

Total goals

Over 0.577%1.30

Under 0.523%4.37

Over 1.547%2.11

Under 1.553%1.90

Over 2.520%4.92

Under 2.580%1.26

Over 3.57%13.93

Under 3.593%1.08

Over 4.52%47.79

Under 4.598%1.02

Odd / even goals

Odd45%2.25

Even56%1.80

Exact total goals

0 goals23%4.37

1 goals30%3.37

2 goals27%3.69

3 goals13%7.61

4 goals5%19.65

5 goals2%63.48

6+ goals1%193.33

Both teams to score

Yes30%3.33

No70%1.43

Team totals

Home over 0.559%1.70

Home over 1.522%4.46

Home over 2.56%16.29

Away over 0.548%2.08

Away over 1.514%7.09

Away over 2.53%34.34

Clean sheet

Home clean sheet52%1.93

Away clean sheet41%2.44

Win to nil

Home win to nil29%3.45

Away win to nil18%5.51

Asian handicap (home)

Home -2.54%27.39

Home -1.514%7.21

Home -0.537%2.68

Home +0.576%1.31

Home +1.593%1.07

Home +2.599%1.01

Correct score (top 8)

0-023%4.37

1-017%5.77

1-114%7.11

0-112%8.09

2-08%11.85

2-16%18.03

0-25%21.79

1-24%24.45

Half-time result

Home26%3.85

Draw56%1.79

Away18%5.52

Half-time goals

Over 0.550%1.99

Under 0.550%2.01

Over 1.515%6.47

Under 1.585%1.18

Half-time / full-time

Home/Home22%4.64

Home/Draw4%27.10

Home/Away1%138.18

Draw/Home16%6.11

Draw/Draw28%3.54

Draw/Away11%8.87

Away/Home1%97.40

Away/Draw4%27.10

Away/Away13%7.46

Corners (match total)

Indicative

Over 8.550%1.98

Under 8.550%2.02

Over 9.537%2.68

Under 9.563%1.59

Over 10.526%3.86

Under 10.574%1.35

Over 11.517%5.93

Under 11.583%1.20

Over 12.510%9.67

Under 12.590%1.12

Expected total: 8.7

GH corners

Indicative

Over 3.562%1.62

Under 3.538%2.62

Over 4.542%2.36

Under 4.558%1.74

Over 5.526%3.86

Under 5.574%1.35

Over 6.514%7.09

Under 6.586%1.16

Expected total: 4.3

PA corners

Indicative

Over 3.565%1.55

Under 3.535%2.82

Over 4.545%2.20

Under 4.555%1.83

Over 5.528%3.52

Under 5.572%1.40

Over 6.516%6.27

Under 6.584%1.19

Expected total: 4.4

Yellow cards (match total)

Indicative

Over 2.578%1.28

Under 2.522%4.55

Over 3.559%1.69

Under 3.541%2.45

Over 4.540%2.52

Under 4.560%1.66

Over 5.524%4.25

Under 5.576%1.31

Expected total: 4.1

GH anytime goalscorer

Indicative

very low sample (n=0)

C. Bonsu Baah (Attacker)23%4.26

J. Aidoo (?)9%11.74

F. Annan (?)9%11.74

R. Ofori (?)9%11.74

H. Afful (?)9%11.74

J. Mensah (?)9%11.74

D. Amartey (?)9%11.74

M. Wakaso (?)9%11.74

Expected total: 0.9

PA anytime goalscorer

Indicative

very low sample (n=0)

J. Fajardo (Attacker)18%5.59

C. Waterman (Attacker)18%5.59

T. Rodríguez (Attacker)18%5.59

H. Cummings (?)6%15.72

A. Machado (?)6%15.72

J. Vargas (?)6%15.72

A. Cooper (?)6%15.72

A. Quintero (Midfielder)6%15.72

Expected total: 0.9

Probabilities and fair odds are derived from the model's full score-line distribution (expected goals: home 0.89, away 0.66). Half-time and HT/FT markets use a 45/55 first-half split. These are model estimates, not a betting guarantee.