England vs Ghana

Group L · Matchday 2

· Gillette Stadium, Boston

Group L standings →Bracket →GB-ENG 100% · GH 100% to advance

England

68%

0–0

Ghana

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Goals

No goals scored.

Cards (2)

41'

D. Rice

England

60'

I. Williams

Ghana

Substitutions (9)

65'

↑ Bukayo Saka for Anthony Gordon

England

66'

↑ N. O'Reilly for D. Spence

England

66'

↑ I. Fatawu for I. Williams

Ghana

67'

↑ P. Adu for J. Ayew

Ghana

73'

↑ M. Rogers for J. Bellingham

England

74'

↑ E. Eze for E. Anderson

England

83'

↑ M. Rashford for N. Madueke

England

87'

↑ K. Peprah for M. Senaya

Ghana

90'

↑ Rahman Baba for Prince Kwabena Adu

Ghana

Match stats

78%Possession22%

19Shots2

4Shots on target1

9Corners2

14Fouls24

2Offsides2

0Saves3

Lineups

England4-2-3-1

Ghana4-3-3

What's at stake

Matchday 2, Group L. The losing side here typically needs a Matchday 3 win plus favourable other-game results to advance.

Season form comparison

sample home 8 · away 4

2.50

Goals / match

0.50

1.50

Conceded / match

0.75

75%

BTTS rate

25%

Clean sheet rate

50%

1.51

xG / match (club)

0.00

5.8

Corners / match

4.1

1.4

Yellows / match

2.2

65%

Possession

46%

England · last 5

DR Congo2-11 July WA

Mexico2-36 July WA

Norway1-211 July LH

Argentina1-215 July WA

Ghana · last 4

Head to head · 1 meetings

England wins

Draws

Ghana wins

Last: England 0-0 Ghana (2026-06-23)avg 0.0 goals

Absences

model swing: 0 / 0 pp

England

No known absences.

Ghana

No known absences.

Win probability

Pre-match

The chart fills in from kickoff. We compute live win probability every 30 seconds.

Updated every 30s. Lines smoothed.

The model's read

High confidence

Result: England are strong favourites at 68%.
Goals: A low-scoring game looks likely. Under 2.5 is favoured (57%).
Both score: Expect at least one clean sheet. Both-teams-score is just 35%.

Most likely score 2-0 (16%)

Why the model leans this way

Factor contributions

home←·→away

Rest days

-6.0%/+6.0%

Club xG form

+1.0%/-6.7%

Set pieces

+2.5%/-1.0%

Travel

-1.0%/-1.0%

Two-model view

Second model api-football

Two models diverge

England

35%

Draw

35%

Ghana

30%

Their internal ratings (0-100)

50·

Form

·50

80·

Attack

·20

0·

Defence

·100

Their advice: Winner : England

Surfaced for transparency. We don't blend api-football's numbers into our model — a second opinion, not a vote.

Match analysis

Score-line probability

brighter = more likely

England goals

0123456

Ghana goals

Most likely: 2-0 16%, 1-0 16%, 0-0 10%. Outlined cells are draws.

Total goals

over 2.5 = 43%

Brighter bars are 3+ goals (over 2.5). Dashed line is the O/U 2.5 split.

Team comparison

EnglandGhana

Percentile vs all 48 teams. Further out is stronger.

Fair odds for every market

How to use this

Fair odds is the lowest price worth taking. It is where a bet breaks even. If your bookmaker offers a bigger number than the fair odds here, the model says that's value. Shop around: the same bet is often priced differently across books.

Match result

Home win68%1.46

Draw23%4.43

Away win9%11.03

Double chance

Home or draw91%1.10

Home or away77%1.29

Draw or away32%3.16

Draw no bet

Home (DNB)88%1.13

Away (DNB)12%8.54

Total goals

Over 0.590%1.11

Under 0.510%9.78

Over 1.570%1.42

Under 1.530%3.36

Over 2.543%2.33

Under 2.557%1.75

Over 3.522%4.52

Under 3.578%1.28

Over 4.510%10.45

Under 4.590%1.11

Odd / even goals

Odd47%2.11

Even53%1.90

Exact total goals

0 goals10%9.78

1 goals19%5.13

2 goals27%3.67

3 goals21%4.79

4 goals13%7.98

5 goals6%16.63

6+ goals4%28.08

Both teams to score

Yes35%2.83

No65%1.55

Team totals

Home over 0.585%1.18

Home over 1.556%1.78

Home over 2.529%3.43

Away over 0.540%2.48

Away over 1.59%10.55

Away over 2.52%64.31

Clean sheet

Home clean sheet60%1.67

Away clean sheet15%6.58

Win to nil

Home win to nil50%2.02

Away win to nil5%20.11

Asian handicap (home)

Home -2.522%4.64

Home -1.544%2.29

Home -0.569%1.44

Home +0.592%1.09

Home +1.598%1.02

Home +2.599%+1.00

Correct score (top 8)

2-016%6.20

1-016%6.26

0-010%9.78

3-010%9.88

1-110%10.04

2-18%12.05

3-15%19.19

4-05%20.98

Half-time result

Home49%2.03

Draw41%2.44

Away10%10.28

Half-time goals

Over 0.566%1.51

Under 0.534%2.94

Over 1.529%3.41

Under 1.571%1.42

Half-time / full-time

Home/Home46%2.18

Home/Draw3%34.13

Home/Away<1%234.00

Draw/Home22%4.45

Draw/Draw14%6.94

Draw/Away4%24.31

Away/Home2%48.78

Away/Draw3%34.13

Away/Away5%21.08

Corners (match total)

Indicative

Over 8.563%1.60

Under 8.537%2.68

Over 9.550%2.01

Under 9.550%1.99

Over 10.537%2.68

Under 10.563%1.60

Over 11.526%3.79

Under 11.574%1.36

Over 12.518%5.67

Under 12.582%1.21

Expected total: 9.7

GB-ENG corners

Indicative

Over 3.578%1.28

Under 3.522%4.63

Over 4.562%1.61

Under 4.538%2.65

Over 5.545%2.22

Under 5.555%1.82

Over 6.529%3.39

Under 6.571%1.42

Expected total: 5.4

GH corners

Indicative

Over 3.562%1.62

Under 3.538%2.62

Over 4.542%2.36

Under 4.558%1.74

Over 5.526%3.86

Under 5.574%1.35

Over 6.514%7.09

Under 6.586%1.16

Expected total: 4.3

Yellow cards (match total)

Indicative

Over 2.568%1.48

Under 2.532%3.08

Over 3.546%2.18

Under 3.554%1.85

Over 4.527%3.69

Under 4.573%1.37

Over 5.514%7.14

Under 5.586%1.16

Expected total: 3.5

GB-ENG anytime goalscorer

Indicative

very low sample (n=0)

I. Toney (Attacker)43%2.32

D. Rose (?)17%5.82

D. Alli (?)17%5.82

Expected total: 0.9

GH anytime goalscorer

Indicative

very low sample (n=0)

C. Bonsu Baah (Attacker)14%6.98

J. Aidoo (?)5%19.92

F. Annan (?)5%19.92

R. Ofori (?)5%19.92

H. Afful (?)5%19.92

J. Mensah (?)5%19.92

D. Amartey (?)5%19.92

M. Wakaso (?)5%19.92

Expected total: 0.5

Probabilities and fair odds are derived from the model's full score-line distribution (expected goals: home 1.88, away 0.52). Half-time and HT/FT markets use a 45/55 first-half split. These are model estimates, not a betting guarantee.