France vs England
Group null · Matchday 8
· Hard Rock Stadium, Miami
3rd Place: France vs England
Sat 18 July · 10pm BST · Hard Rock Stadium, Miami
Model read
France 56% · Draw 28% · England 16%. Model xG: France 1.59, England 0.71. Most likely scores: 1-0 (15%), 1-1 (13%), 2-0 (13%), 0-0 (12%). Under 2.5 at 60%, BTTS No at 58%. A low-scoring France win is the model's clear central case.
Injuries & determining factors
- France: William Saliba OUT — back injury, walked off the semi vs Spain ('my back is gone'). France's first-choice centre-back; Lacroix or Konsa expected to step in.
- France: Brice Samba (backup keeper) also out with a calf issue. Deschamps, in effectively his last game in charge, is expected to rotate heavily.
- France: Mbappe (8 goals) is chasing the Golden Boot and will want every minute — the one certainty amid the rotation.
- England: Reece James forced off injured (muscle) late in the semi vs Argentina — a major doubt. Djed Spence or Trevoh Chalobah in contention to cover.
- England: Jordan Henderson sidelined with a wrist injury.
- England: Rice, Kane and Bellingham have carried heavy minutes all tournament, and Tuchel has signalled 'significant changes' — several are likely to be rested.
- England: Tuchel has openly said 'nobody wants to play' the third-place game — expect a much-changed, low-intensity side.
- Model: The model's win probabilities don't ingest late lineup news — Saliba's absence and England's rotation aren't baked into the numbers, so treat the injury picture as a manual overlay on top of the model.
The picks
France to win
56% model vs ~54% priced-in · +4% EV
The clearest edge on the board, but a modest one: the model rates France 56% and the price implies about 54%. That's roughly +4% value at $1.86. England managed just 0.71 model xG — they struggle to score — and Tuchel has said outright that 'nobody wants to play' this game, so expect a heavily rotated, low-intensity England. It's still a dead rubber, so keep the stake small.
Stake: ~1.2% of bankroll ($12 on $1,000) — quarter-Kelly
France to win to nil
France clean sheet 49% · top scores 1-0 (15%) and 2-0 (13%)
The model's two most likely scorelines are both France shut-outs. France to keep a clean sheet is 49% (England 0.71 xG), and France winning to nil comes out around 36% — fair odds near $2.75. A cleaner, higher-payout way to back the same read than the straight win. If you'd rather, France win + Under 2.5 as a combo covers the 1-0 and 2-0 specifically.
Stake: 0.5-1% of bankroll (bigger payout, lower hit rate)
Mbappe to score
Golden Boot chase — 8 goals, level with Messi
Mbappe is tied with Messi on 8 for the Golden Boot and this is the last game of his tournament — he'll play every minute and take every chance. Treat it as a motivation play rather than a hard model number: the model doesn't publish a per-player anytime price, so size it small and only take it if the market price is 1.75+.
Stake: small — narrative lean, not a model edge
Over / Under 2.5
Model says Under 2.5 (60%)
The model leans Under, but the fair price on Under (~$1.65) is shorter than most books offer, so there's no clean value either way. Layer on Saliba's absence and wholesale rotation on both sides and the total becomes a genuine coin-flip in practice. No edge in either direction — leave it.
England to win
16% model prob · 0.71 model xG
16% win probability and just 0.71 expected goals. Reece James limped off in the semi and is a major doubt, Jordan Henderson is sidelined with a wrist injury, and Tuchel is rotating heavily in a game he's admitted nobody wants to play. Not a side to back.
Bottom line
Back France to win at ~$1.86 — a small but real edge (56% model vs ~54% priced), and England can't score (0.71 xG) in a game Tuchel says nobody wants to play. For a bigger payout, France to nil (~$2.75) covers the model's top two scorelines, 1-0 and 2-0. Skip the total — the model's Under is priced fairly, not generously. Keep stakes modest: it's a dead rubber with heavy rotation on both sides.
Model numbers are the live prediction above (win probs, xG, scorelines, market-implied). Market prices where quoted are live; prices marked “fair” are model-derived — shop around. Injury news from team reporting as of 18 July. Historical patterns from WC 1994-2022. Not financial advice. 18+ only.
Goals (10)
Substitutions (10)
↑ O. Dembele for R. Cherki
↑ B. Barcola for D. Doue
↑ L. Digne for T. Hernandez
↑ D. Upamecano for I. Konate
↑ O. Watkins for M. Rashford
↑ E. Anderson for I. Toney
↑ J. Bellingham for E. Eze
↑ R. James for J. Quansah
↑ J. Kounde for M. Gusto
↑ T. Chalobah for M. Guehi
Match stats
Top performer
BSB. Saka
England · 3 goals
Lineups
France4-2-3-1
What's at stake
Knockout fixture, single elimination.
Season form comparison
sample home 8 · away 8
France · last 5
Head to head · 3 meetings
2
France wins
1
Draws
0
England wins
Absences
model swing: 0 / 0 pp
France
No known absences.
England
No known absences.
Win probability
Pre-match
The chart fills in from kickoff. We compute live win probability every 30 seconds.
Updated every 30s. Lines smoothed.
The model's read
Medium confidenceResult: France are slight favourites at 46%, but it is far from settled.
Goals: Goals expected. Over 2.5 lands 65% of the time.
Both score: Both teams to score is likely (67%).
Why the model leans this way
Factor contributions
home←·→away
Two-model view
Second model api-football
Two models moderately agreeFrance
45%
Draw
45%
England
10%
Their internal ratings (0-100)
Their advice: Double chance : France or draw
Surfaced for transparency. We don't blend api-football's numbers into our model — a second opinion, not a vote.
Match analysis
Score-line probability
brighter = more likely
England goals
Most likely: 1-1 11%, 2-1 9%, 1-2 7%. Outlined cells are draws.
Total goals
over 2.5 = 65%
Brighter bars are 3+ goals (over 2.5). Dashed line is the O/U 2.5 split.
Team comparison
Percentile vs all 48 teams. Further out is stronger.
Fair odds for every market
How to use this
Fair odds is the lowest price worth taking. It is where a bet breaks even. If your bookmaker offers a bigger number than the fair odds here, the model says that's value. Shop around: the same bet is often priced differently across books.
Match result
Double chance
Draw no bet
Total goals
Odd / even goals
Exact total goals
Both teams to score
Team totals
Clean sheet
Win to nil
Asian handicap (home)
Correct score (top 8)
Half-time result
Half-time goals
Half-time / full-time
Corners (match total)
IndicativeExpected total: 11.3
FR corners
IndicativeExpected total: 5.9
GB-ENG corners
IndicativeExpected total: 5.4
Yellow cards (match total)
IndicativeExpected total: 2.8
FR anytime goalscorer
Indicativevery low sample (n=0)
Expected total: 1.5
GB-ENG anytime goalscorer
Indicativevery low sample (n=0)
Expected total: 0.7
Probabilities and fair odds are derived from the model's full score-line distribution (expected goals: home 1.89, away 1.47). Half-time and HT/FT markets use a 45/55 first-half split. These are model estimates, not a betting guarantee.