Czechia vs South Africa

Group A · Matchday 2

· Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta

Group A standings →Bracket →CZ 0% · ZA 100% to advance

Czechia

53%

FT

1–1

HT 1–0

South Africa

16%

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Goals (2)

6'

Michal Sadílek

assist: Alexandr Sojka

Czechia
83'

Teboho Mokoenapen

South Africa

Cards (3)

33'

Teboho Mokoena

South Africa
40'

Thalente Mbatha

South Africa
75'

Ladislav Krejčí

Czechia

Substitutions (8)

46'

↑ Relebohile Mofokeng for Jayden Adams

South Africa
55'

↑ Jaroslav Zelený for Alexandr Sojka

Czechia
55'

↑ Pavel Šulc for Vladimír Darida

Czechia
66'

↑ Evidence Makgopa for Iqraam Rayners

South Africa
67'

↑ Lukáš Provod for Adam Hložek

Czechia
67'

↑ Tomáš Souček for Michal Sadílek

Czechia
78'

↑ David Zima for Lukáš Červ

Czechia
84'

↑ Kamogelo Sebelebele for Thapelo Maseko

South Africa

Match stats

38%Possession62%
14Shots17
3Shots on target4
1.02Expected goals1.37
5Corners5
12Fouls10
2Offsides3
3Saves2
80%Pass accuracy90%

Top performer

MS

Michal Sadílek

Czechia · 1 goal

Lineups

Czechia3-5-2

South Africa4-3-3

What's at stake

Matchday 2, Group A. The losing side here typically needs a Matchday 3 win plus favourable other-game results to advance.

Season form comparison

sample home 3 · away 4

0.67
Goals / match
0.50
2.00
Conceded / match
1.00
67%
BTTS rate
25%
0%
Clean sheet rate
25%
1.98
xG / match (club)
0.00
5.2
Corners / match
4.3
1.8
Yellows / match
1.6
50%
Possession
54%

Head to head · 1 meetings

0

Czechia wins

1

Draws

0

South Africa wins

Last: Czechia 1-1 South Africa (2026-06-18)avg 2.0 goals

Absences

model swing: 0 / 0 pp

Czechia

No known absences.

South Africa

  • 2 players · suspended (card accumulation)

Win probability

Pre-match

The chart fills in from kickoff. We compute live win probability every 30 seconds.

Updated every 30s. Lines smoothed.

The model's read

Medium confidence

  • Result: Czechia are slight favourites at 53%, but it is far from settled.

  • Goals: A low-scoring game looks likely. Under 2.5 is favoured (68%).

  • Both score: Expect at least one clean sheet. Both-teams-score is just 36%.

Most likely score 1-0 (17%)

Why the model leans this way

Factor contributions

home←·→away

Rest days
+6.0%/-6.0%
Club xG form
+1.7%/-3.7%
Set pieces
+1.5%/-0.2%
Travel
-3.0%/-3.0%

Two-model view

Second model api-football

Two-model consensus

Czechia

45%

Draw

45%

South Africa

10%

Their internal ratings (0-100)

0·
Form
·0
100·
Attack
·0
50·
Defence
·50

Their advice: Double chance : Czechia or draw

Surfaced for transparency. We don't blend api-football's numbers into our model — a second opinion, not a vote.

Match analysis

Score-line probability

brighter = more likely

Czechia goals
15
7
17
13
13
8
6
0123456

South Africa goals

Most likely: 1-0 17%, 0-0 15%, 1-1 13%. Outlined cells are draws.

Total goals

over 2.5 = 32%

15
0
24
1
29
2
18
3
9
4
4
5
2
6+

Brighter bars are 3+ goals (over 2.5). Dashed line is the O/U 2.5 split.

Team comparison

AttackDefenceRatingSet-pieceattackSet-piecedefence
CzechiaSouth Africa

Percentile vs all 48 teams. Further out is stronger.

Fair odds for every market

How to use this

Fair odds is the lowest price worth taking. It is where a bet breaks even. If your bookmaker offers a bigger number than the fair odds here, the model says that's value. Shop around: the same bet is often priced differently across books.

Match result

Home win53%1.89
Draw31%3.22
Away win16%6.18

Double chance

Home or draw84%1.19
Home or away69%1.45
Draw or away47%2.12

Draw no bet

Home (DNB)77%1.31
Away (DNB)23%4.26

Total goals

Over 0.585%1.18
Under 0.515%6.56
Over 1.561%1.65
Under 1.539%2.53
Over 2.532%3.13
Under 2.568%1.47
Over 3.514%7.12
Under 3.586%1.16
Over 4.55%19.46
Under 4.595%1.05

Odd / even goals

Odd46%2.17
Even54%1.85

Exact total goals

0 goals15%6.56
1 goals24%4.13
2 goals29%3.50
3 goals18%5.58
4 goals9%11.24
5 goals4%28.30
6+ goals2%62.25

Both teams to score

Yes36%2.79
No64%1.56

Team totals

Home over 0.575%1.34
Home over 1.540%2.52
Home over 2.516%6.30
Away over 0.546%2.17
Away over 1.513%7.82
Away over 2.52%40.11

Clean sheet

Home clean sheet54%1.86
Away clean sheet25%3.93

Win to nil

Home win to nil39%2.59
Away win to nil10%9.78

Asian handicap (home)

Home -2.510%9.64
Home -1.527%3.67
Home -0.554%1.86
Home +0.585%1.18
Home +1.596%1.04
Home +2.599%1.01

Correct score (top 8)

1-017%5.79
0-015%6.56
1-113%7.63
2-013%7.79
2-18%12.60
0-17%14.34
3-06%17.08
3-14%27.63

Half-time result

Home38%2.66
Draw48%2.07
Away14%7.03

Half-time goals

Over 0.559%1.69
Under 0.541%2.44
Over 1.523%4.44
Under 1.577%1.29

Half-time / full-time

Home/Home33%3.01
Home/Draw4%26.89
Home/Away1%149.49
Draw/Home20%4.93
Draw/Draw21%4.86
Draw/Away7%13.57
Away/Home2%58.34
Away/Draw4%26.89
Away/Away9%11.38

Corners (match total)

Indicative
Over 8.568%1.47
Under 8.532%3.11
Over 9.555%1.80
Under 9.545%2.24
Over 10.543%2.33
Under 10.557%1.75
Over 11.531%3.18
Under 11.569%1.46
Over 12.522%4.59
Under 12.578%1.28

Expected total: 10.1

CZ corners

Indicative
Over 3.582%1.23
Under 3.518%5.42
Over 4.567%1.50
Under 4.533%3.00
Over 5.550%2.01
Under 5.550%1.99
Over 6.534%2.95
Under 6.566%1.51

Expected total: 5.7

ZA corners

Indicative
Over 3.565%1.54
Under 3.535%2.84
Over 4.546%2.19
Under 4.554%1.84
Over 5.529%3.48
Under 5.571%1.40
Over 6.516%6.19
Under 6.584%1.19

Expected total: 4.4

Yellow cards (match total)

Indicative
Over 2.565%1.53
Under 2.535%2.88
Over 3.543%2.31
Under 3.557%1.77
Over 4.525%4.01
Under 4.575%1.33
Over 5.513%8.00
Under 5.588%1.14

Expected total: 3.4

CZ anytime goalscorer

Indicative

very low sample (n=0)

T. Gebre Selassie (?)13%7.82
M. Rabušic (?)13%7.82
A. Barák (?)13%7.82
A. Matějů (?)13%7.82
P. Schwarz (?)13%7.82
P. Stronati (?)13%7.82
A. Jánoš (?)13%7.82

Expected total: 1.0

ZA anytime goalscorer

Indicative

low sample (n=2)

T. Maseko (Attacker)19%5.21
I. Rayners (Attacker)17%5.91
O. Appollis (Attacker)17%5.91
E. Makgopa (Attacker)17%5.91
T. Mokoena (Midfielder)7%14.58
D. Keet (?)6%16.69
S. Hlanti (?)6%16.69
T. Hlatshwayo (?)6%16.69

Expected total: 1.0

Probabilities and fair odds are derived from the model's full score-line distribution (expected goals: home 1.37, away 0.62). Half-time and HT/FT markets use a 45/55 first-half split. These are model estimates, not a betting guarantee.