Mexico vs South Korea

Group A · Matchday 2

· Estadio Akron, Guadalajara

Group A standings →Bracket →MX 100% · KR 0% to advance

Mexico

55%

1–0

HT 0–0

South Korea

18%

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Goals (1)

50'

L. Romo

Mexico

Cards (2)

Lee Kang-In

South Korea

58'

Paik Seung-Ho

South Korea

Substitutions (10)

57'

↑ Hwang Hee-Chan for Lee Jae-Sung

South Korea

57'

↑ Oh Hyeon-Gyu for Son Heung-Min

South Korea

71'

↑ O. Vargas for L. Romo

Mexico

71'

↑ O. Pineda for B. Gutierrez

Mexico

71'

↑ Eom Ji-Sung for Kim Moon-Hwan

South Korea

71'

↑ Yang Hyun-Jun for Seol Young-Woo

South Korea

77'

↑ Cho Gue-Sung for Paik Seung-Ho

South Korea

80'

↑ I. Reyes for R. Alvarado

Mexico

80'

↑ S. Gimenez for R. Jimenez

Mexico

84'

↑ C. S. Huerta Valera for J. Quinones

Mexico

Match stats

42%Possession58%

8Shots9

4Shots on target2

0.48Expected goals0.69

0Corners2

9Fouls7

3Offsides6

2Saves3

82%Pass accuracy84%

Top performer

L. Romo

Mexico · 1 goal

Lineups

Mexico4-3-3

South Korea3-4-2-1

What's at stake

Matchday 2, Group A. The losing side here typically needs a Matchday 3 win plus favourable other-game results to advance.

Season form comparison

sample home 5 · away 3

2.00

Goals / match

0.67

0.60

Conceded / match

1.00

20%

BTTS rate

33%

80%

Clean sheet rate

1.62

xG / match (club)

0.69

5.6

Corners / match

6.9

2.2

Yellows / match

1.4

57%

Possession

64%

Mexico · last 5

South Africa2-011 June WH

South Korea1-019 June WA

South Korea · last 3

South Africa1-025 June

Head to head · 4 meetings

Mexico wins

Draws

South Korea wins

Last: Mexico 1-0 South Korea (2026-06-19)avg 3.3 goals

Absences

model swing: 0 / 0 pp

Mexico

1 player · suspended (card accumulation)

South Korea

No known absences.

Win probability

Pre-match

The chart fills in from kickoff. We compute live win probability every 30 seconds.

Updated every 30s. Lines smoothed.

The model's read

Medium confidence

Result: Mexico are slight favourites at 55%, but it is far from settled.
Goals: Goals are a coin-flip around the 2.5 line (over 44%).

Most likely score 1-1 (13%)

Why the model leans this way

Factor contributions

home←·→away

Rest days

-6.0%/+6.0%

Head-to-head

+1.7%/-1.7%

Club xG form

-2.0%/-5.2%

Two-model view

Second model api-football

Two models moderately agree

Mexico

45%

Draw

45%

South Korea

10%

Their internal ratings (0-100)

50·

Form

·50

50·

Attack

·50

100·

Defence

·0

Their advice: Double chance : Mexico or draw

Surfaced for transparency. We don't blend api-football's numbers into our model — a second opinion, not a vote.

Key players to watch

Mexico

No per-90 data for this squad yet.

South Korea

Kim Tae-Hyeon
Defender · 2025-26
0.04
A/90

Per-90 stats: Rising Transfers (risingtransfers.com), CC BY 4.0

Match analysis

Score-line probability

brighter = more likely

Mexico goals

0123456

South Korea goals

Most likely: 1-1 13%, 1-0 13%, 2-0 12%. Outlined cells are draws.

Total goals

over 2.5 = 44%

Brighter bars are 3+ goals (over 2.5). Dashed line is the O/U 2.5 split.

Team comparison

MexicoSouth Korea

Percentile vs all 48 teams. Further out is stronger.

Fair odds for every market

How to use this

Fair odds is the lowest price worth taking. It is where a bet breaks even. If your bookmaker offers a bigger number than the fair odds here, the model says that's value. Shop around: the same bet is often priced differently across books.

Match result

Home win55%1.81

Draw27%3.66

Away win18%5.70

Double chance

Home or draw82%1.21

Home or away73%1.38

Draw or away45%2.23

Draw no bet

Home (DNB)76%1.32

Away (DNB)24%4.14

Total goals

Over 0.590%1.11

Under 0.510%9.93

Over 1.572%1.39

Under 1.528%3.55

Over 2.544%2.25

Under 2.556%1.80

Over 3.523%4.29

Under 3.577%1.30

Over 4.510%9.72

Under 4.590%1.11

Odd / even goals

Odd47%2.14

Even53%1.87

Exact total goals

0 goals10%9.93

1 goals18%5.52

2 goals27%3.66

3 goals21%4.72

4 goals13%7.69

5 goals6%15.67

6+ goals4%25.59

Both teams to score

Yes46%2.17

No54%1.86

Team totals

Home over 0.581%1.24

Home over 1.549%2.04

Home over 2.523%4.35

Away over 0.555%1.81

Away over 1.519%5.18

Away over 2.55%20.77

Clean sheet

Home clean sheet45%2.24

Away clean sheet19%5.21

Win to nil

Home win to nil35%2.89

Away win to nil9%10.95

Asian handicap (home)

Home -2.514%7.26

Home -1.532%3.17

Home -0.556%1.79

Home +0.583%1.20

Home +1.595%1.06

Home +2.599%1.01

Correct score (top 8)

1-113%7.76

1-013%7.88

2-012%8.56

0-010%9.93

2-19%10.63

3-06%15.56

0-15%18.42

3-15%19.32

Half-time result

Home41%2.44

Draw43%2.34

Away16%6.11

Half-time goals

Over 0.567%1.50

Under 0.533%3.02

Over 1.530%3.30

Under 1.570%1.43

Half-time / full-time

Home/Home36%2.80

Home/Draw4%23.75

Home/Away1%100.95

Draw/Home19%5.18

Draw/Draw16%6.26

Draw/Away7%13.55

Away/Home2%41.73

Away/Draw4%23.75

Away/Away10%10.24

Corners (match total)

Indicative

Over 8.585%1.17

Under 8.515%6.85

Over 9.577%1.30

Under 9.523%4.34

Over 10.567%1.50

Under 10.533%3.01

Over 11.555%1.80

Under 11.545%2.24

Over 12.544%2.27

Under 12.556%1.79

Expected total: 12.1

MX corners

Indicative

Over 3.580%1.26

Under 3.520%4.92

Over 4.564%1.56

Under 4.536%2.78

Over 5.547%2.13

Under 5.553%1.88

Over 6.531%3.21

Under 6.569%1.45

Expected total: 5.5

KR corners

Indicative

Over 3.590%1.11

Under 3.510%9.85

Over 4.579%1.26

Under 4.521%4.84

Over 5.565%1.53

Under 5.535%2.89

Over 6.550%2.01

Under 6.550%1.99

Expected total: 6.7

Yellow cards (match total)

Indicative

Over 2.566%1.52

Under 2.534%2.92

Over 3.544%2.28

Under 3.556%1.78

Over 4.525%3.96

Under 4.575%1.34

Over 5.513%7.85

Under 5.587%1.15

Expected total: 3.4

MX anytime goalscorer

Indicative

low sample (n=1)

J. Quiñones (Midfielder)23%4.31

H. Lozano (?)15%6.57

A. Guardado (?)15%6.57

H. González (?)15%6.57

N. Araújo (?)15%6.57

M. Layún (?)15%6.57

H. Moreno (?)15%6.57

L. Rodríguez (?)15%6.57

Expected total: 1.4

KR anytime goalscorer

Indicative

very low sample (n=0)

Lee Dong-Gyeong (Attacker)21%4.66

Gu Sung-Yun (?)8%12.94

Hong Chul (?)8%12.94

Jung Seung-Hyun (?)8%12.94

Kim Jin-Su (?)8%12.94

Kim Young-Gwon (?)8%12.94

Kwon Kyung-Won (?)8%12.94

Park Ji-Soo (?)8%12.94

Expected total: 0.8

Probabilities and fair odds are derived from the model's full score-line distribution (expected goals: home 1.65, away 0.81). Half-time and HT/FT markets use a 45/55 first-half split. These are model estimates, not a betting guarantee.