Turkey vs Paraguay

Group D · Matchday 2

· Levi Stadium, Santa Clara

Group D standings →Bracket →TR 0% · PY 100% to advance

Turkey

45%

FT

0–1

HT 0–1

Paraguay

23%

Share card

Goals (1)

2'

M. Galarza

Paraguay

Cards (3)

4'

M. Galarza

Paraguay
48'

M. Almiron

Paraguay
71'

E. Elmali

Turkey

Substitutions (10)

46'

↑ D. Bobadilla for I. Pitta

Paraguay
46'

↑ B. Yilmaz for K. Akturkoglu

Turkey
60'

↑ D. Gul for Y. Akgun

Turkey
60'

↑ C. Uzun for I. Yuksek

Turkey
67'

↑ G. Velazquez for D. Gomez

Paraguay
70'

↑ E. Elmali for F. Kadioglu

Turkey
81'

↑ A. Maidana for J. Caceres

Paraguay
86'

↑ O. Kokcu for A. Bardakci

Turkey
92'

↑ G. Avalos for J. Enciso

Paraguay
92'

↑ J. Canale for M. Galarza

Paraguay

Match stats

79%Possession21%
31Shots7
5Shots on target2
1.87Expected goals0.29
11Corners0
14Fouls14
2Offsides3
1Saves5
89%Pass accuracy53%

Top performer

MG

M. Galarza

Paraguay · 1 goal

Lineups

Turkey4-2-3-1

Paraguay4-4-2

What's at stake

Matchday 2, Group D. The losing side here typically needs a Matchday 3 win plus favourable other-game results to advance.

Season form comparison

sample home 3 · away 5

1.00
Goals / match
0.60
1.67
Conceded / match
1.20
33%
BTTS rate
40%
0%
Clean sheet rate
40%
1.61
xG / match (club)
0.90
5.6
Corners / match
4.0
2.4
Yellows / match
2.6
58%
Possession
47%

Head to head · 1 meetings

0

Turkey wins

0

Draws

1

Paraguay wins

Last: Türkiye 0-1 Paraguay (2026-06-20)avg 1.0 goals

Absences

model swing: 0 / 0 pp

Turkey

No known absences.

Paraguay

No known absences.

Win probability

Pre-match

The chart fills in from kickoff. We compute live win probability every 30 seconds.

Updated every 30s. Lines smoothed.

The model's read

Wide-open match

  • Result: An open match. Turkey edge it at just 45%.

  • Goals: A low-scoring game looks likely. Under 2.5 is favoured (65%).

  • Both score: Expect at least one clean sheet. Both-teams-score is just 42%.

Most likely score 1-1 (15%)

Why the model leans this way

Factor contributions

home←·→away

Rest days
+6.0%/-6.0%
Club xG form
-0.3%/-4.7%

Two-model view

Second model api-football

Two-model consensus

Turkey

33%

Draw

33%

Paraguay

33%

Their internal ratings (0-100)

0·
Form
·0
0·
Attack
·100
67·
Defence
·33

Their advice: No predictions available

Surfaced for transparency. We don't blend api-football's numbers into our model — a second opinion, not a vote.

Match analysis

Score-line probability

brighter = more likely

Turkey goals
14
8
4
14
15
5
10
8
4
0123456

Paraguay goals

Most likely: 1-1 15%, 1-0 14%, 0-0 14%. Outlined cells are draws.

Total goals

over 2.5 = 35%

14
0
22
1
29
2
19
3
10
4
4
5
2
6+

Brighter bars are 3+ goals (over 2.5). Dashed line is the O/U 2.5 split.

Team comparison

AttackDefenceRatingSet-pieceattackSet-piecedefence
TurkeyParaguay

Percentile vs all 48 teams. Further out is stronger.

Fair odds for every market

How to use this

Fair odds is the lowest price worth taking. It is where a bet breaks even. If your bookmaker offers a bigger number than the fair odds here, the model says that's value. Shop around: the same bet is often priced differently across books.

Match result

Home win45%2.23
Draw32%3.11
Away win23%4.34

Double chance

Home or draw77%1.30
Home or away68%1.47
Draw or away55%1.81

Draw no bet

Home (DNB)66%1.52
Away (DNB)34%2.94

Total goals

Over 0.586%1.16
Under 0.514%7.27
Over 1.564%1.56
Under 1.536%2.78
Over 2.535%2.82
Under 2.565%1.55
Over 3.516%6.10
Under 3.584%1.20
Over 4.56%15.74
Under 4.594%1.07

Odd / even goals

Odd46%2.18
Even54%1.85

Exact total goals

0 goals14%7.27
1 goals22%4.51
2 goals29%3.49
3 goals19%5.26
4 goals10%9.95
5 goals4%23.54
6+ goals2%47.53

Both teams to score

Yes42%2.35
No58%1.74

Team totals

Home over 0.572%1.38
Home over 1.537%2.72
Home over 2.514%7.19
Away over 0.556%1.77
Away over 1.520%4.94
Away over 2.55%19.24

Clean sheet

Home clean sheet44%2.30
Away clean sheet28%3.61

Win to nil

Home win to nil30%3.35
Away win to nil14%7.16

Asian handicap (home)

Home -2.58%12.96
Home -1.522%4.61
Home -0.545%2.20
Home +0.578%1.29
Home +1.592%1.08
Home +2.598%1.02

Correct score (top 8)

1-115%6.87
1-014%7.24
0-014%7.27
2-010%10.06
0-18%11.96
2-18%12.11
1-25%18.69
3-04%23.53

Half-time result

Home33%3.01
Draw47%2.11
Away19%5.17

Half-time goals

Over 0.561%1.63
Under 0.539%2.59
Over 1.525%4.06
Under 1.575%1.33

Half-time / full-time

Home/Home28%3.61
Home/Draw4%22.71
Home/Away1%91.48
Draw/Home17%5.72
Draw/Draw20%5.00
Draw/Away10%10.06
Away/Home2%54.26
Away/Draw4%22.71
Away/Away13%7.63

Corners (match total)

Indicative
Over 8.559%1.69
Under 8.541%2.45
Over 9.546%2.17
Under 9.554%1.85
Over 10.534%2.96
Under 10.566%1.51
Over 11.523%4.28
Under 11.577%1.31
Over 12.515%6.56
Under 12.585%1.18

Expected total: 9.4

TR corners

Indicative
Over 3.576%1.31
Under 3.524%4.21
Over 4.559%1.68
Under 4.541%2.46
Over 5.542%2.38
Under 5.558%1.72
Over 6.527%3.73
Under 6.573%1.37

Expected total: 5.2

PY corners

Indicative
Over 3.560%1.67
Under 3.540%2.48
Over 4.540%2.48
Under 4.560%1.67
Over 5.524%4.15
Under 5.576%1.32
Over 6.513%7.80
Under 6.587%1.15

Expected total: 4.2

Yellow cards (match total)

Indicative
Over 2.588%1.14
Under 2.512%8.11
Over 3.574%1.36
Under 3.526%3.81
Over 4.556%1.78
Under 4.544%2.28
Over 5.539%2.59
Under 5.561%1.63

Expected total: 5.0

TR anytime goalscorer

Indicative

very low sample (n=0)

U. Bozok (?)12%8.31
A. Parmak (?)12%8.31
E. Özbir (?)12%8.31
E. Karaca (?)12%8.31
G. Akkan (?)12%8.31
M. Çetin (?)12%8.31
T. Sanuç (?)12%8.31
C. Özkacar (?)12%8.31

Expected total: 1.0

PY anytime goalscorer

Indicative

very low sample (n=0)

A. Romero (Attacker)22%4.53
L. Melgarejo (?)8%12.55
A. Silva (?)8%12.55
B. Valdez (?)8%12.55
S. Arzamendia (?)8%12.55
R. Rojas (?)8%12.55
C. González (?)8%12.55
G. Giménez (?)8%12.55

Expected total: 0.8

Probabilities and fair odds are derived from the model's full score-line distribution (expected goals: home 1.28, away 0.83). Half-time and HT/FT markets use a 45/55 first-half split. These are model estimates, not a betting guarantee.