All matches
Spain vs Saudi Arabia
Group H · Matchday 2
· Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta
Goals (4)
Cards (2)
30'
Saudi Arabia
S. Al Dawsari
60'Saudi Arabia
M. Kanno
Substitutions (10)
46'Saudi Arabia
↑ M. Kanno for A. Al Khaibari
46'Saudi Arabia
↑ A. Al Hamdan for M. Al Juwayr
46'
Spain
↑ F. Torres for M. Oyarzabal
46'Spain
↑ Y. Pino for Lamine Yamal
60'Saudi Arabia
↑ A. Hejji for A. Al Amri
60'Saudi Arabia
↑ M. Abu Al Shamat for F. Al Buraikan
61'Spain
↑ M. Merino for D. Olmo
61'Spain
↑ N. Williams for A. Baena
70'Spain
↑ F. Ruiz for Pedri
90'Saudi Arabia
↑ K. Al Ghannam for N. Al Dawsari
Match stats
66%Possession34%
21Shots3
8Shots on target1
2.78Expected goals0.14
6Corners1
10Fouls2
2Offsides3
1Saves5
92%Pass accuracy80%
Top performer
MOM. Oyarzabal
Spain · 1 goal
Lineups
Spain4-2-3-1
What's at stake
Matchday 2, Group H. The losing side here typically needs a Matchday 3 win plus favourable other-game results to advance.
Season form comparison
sample home 8 · away 3
1.75
Goals / match
0.33
0.12
Conceded / match
1.67
12%
BTTS rate
33%
88%
Clean sheet rate
33%
2.70
xG / match (club)
0.00
6.3
Corners / match
4.4
1.8
Yellows / match
2.0
68%
Possession
58%
Spain · last 5
Saudi Arabia · last 3
Head to head · 1 meetings
0
Spain wins
1
Draws
0
Saudi Arabia wins
Last: Spain 0-0 Saudi Arabia (2026-06-21)avg 0.0 goals
Absences
model swing: 0 / 0 pp
Spain
No known absences.
Saudi Arabia
No known absences.
Win probability
Pre-match
The chart fills in from kickoff. We compute live win probability every 30 seconds.
Updated every 30s. Lines smoothed.
The model's read
High confidenceResult: Spain are strong favourites at 79%.
Goals: Goals are a coin-flip around the 2.5 line (over 46%).
Both score: Expect at least one clean sheet. Both-teams-score is just 26%.
Most likely score 2-0 (19%)
Why the model leans this way
Factor contributions
home←·→away
Rest days
-6.0%/+6.0%
Club xG form
+1.4%/-5.1%
Travel
0.0%/-1.0%
Set pieces
-0.4%/-0.9%
Two-model view
Second model api-football
Two models divergeSpain
35%
Draw
35%
Saudi Arabia
30%
Their internal ratings (0-100)
50·
Form
·50
0·
Attack
·100
100·
Defence
·0
Their advice: Combo Double chance : Spain or draw and -2.5 goals
Surfaced for transparency. We don't blend api-football's numbers into our model — a second opinion, not a vote.
Key players to watch
Spain
No per-90 data for this squad yet.
Per-90 stats: Rising Transfers (risingtransfers.com), CC BY 4.0
Match analysis
Score-line probability
brighter = more likely
Spain goals
9
17
7
19
6
14
5
8
0123456
Saudi Arabia goals
Most likely: 2-0 19%, 1-0 17%, 3-0 14%. Outlined cells are draws.
Total goals
over 2.5 = 45%
90
191
262
213
134
75
46+
Brighter bars are 3+ goals (over 2.5). Dashed line is the O/U 2.5 split.
Team comparison
SpainSaudi Arabia
Percentile vs all 48 teams. Further out is stronger.
Fair odds for every market
How to use this
Fair odds is the lowest price worth taking. It is where a bet breaks even. If your bookmaker offers a bigger number than the fair odds here, the model says that's value. Shop around: the same bet is often priced differently across books.
Match result
Home win79%1.27
Draw17%5.96
Away win4%22.80
Double chance
Home or draw96%1.05
Home or away83%1.20
Draw or away21%4.73
Draw no bet
Home (DNB)95%1.06
Away (DNB)5%18.97
Total goals
Over 0.591%1.10
Under 0.59%11.23
Over 1.572%1.38
Under 1.528%3.60
Over 2.546%2.18
Under 2.554%1.85
Over 3.524%4.09
Under 3.576%1.32
Over 4.511%9.09
Under 4.589%1.12
Odd / even goals
Odd48%2.08
Even52%1.93
Exact total goals
0 goals9%11.23
1 goals19%5.30
2 goals26%3.79
3 goals21%4.67
4 goals13%7.44
5 goals7%14.84
6+ goals4%23.47
Both teams to score
Yes26%3.85
No74%1.35
Team totals
Home over 0.589%1.13
Home over 1.564%1.56
Home over 2.537%2.70
Away over 0.528%3.51
Away over 1.55%22.21
Away over 2.5<1%204.74
Clean sheet
Home clean sheet72%1.40
Away clean sheet11%8.79
Win to nil
Home win to nil63%1.60
Away win to nil2%40.53
Asian handicap (home)
Home -2.531%3.23
Home -1.555%1.81
Home -0.580%1.26
Home +0.596%1.04
Home +1.599%1.01
Home +2.599%+1.00
Correct score (top 8)
2-019%5.20
1-017%5.91
3-014%7.18
0-09%11.23
4-08%13.21
1-17%14.94
2-16%15.53
3-15%21.43
Half-time result
Home57%1.75
Draw37%2.68
Away6%17.70
Half-time goals
Over 0.568%1.48
Under 0.532%3.09
Over 1.531%3.21
Under 1.569%1.45
Half-time / full-time
Home/Home55%1.82
Home/Draw2%54.54
Home/Away<1%585.07
Draw/Home24%4.24
Draw/Draw12%8.65
Draw/Away2%47.44
Away/Home2%62.35
Away/Draw2%54.54
Away/Away2%45.23
Corners (match total)
IndicativeOver 8.577%1.29
Under 8.523%4.41
Over 9.567%1.50
Under 9.533%2.99
Over 10.555%1.83
Under 10.545%2.21
Over 11.543%2.34
Under 11.557%1.75
Over 12.532%3.15
Under 12.568%1.47
Expected total: 11.1
ES corners
IndicativeOver 3.589%1.12
Under 3.511%9.36
Over 4.578%1.27
Under 4.522%4.64
Over 5.564%1.56
Under 5.536%2.79
Over 6.549%2.06
Under 6.551%1.94
Expected total: 6.6
SA corners
IndicativeOver 3.566%1.53
Under 3.535%2.90
Over 4.546%2.15
Under 4.554%1.87
Over 5.529%3.40
Under 5.571%1.42
Over 6.517%5.99
Under 6.583%1.20
Expected total: 4.5
Yellow cards (match total)
IndicativeOver 2.570%1.44
Under 2.530%3.29
Over 3.548%2.07
Under 3.552%1.94
Over 4.529%3.42
Under 4.571%1.41
Over 5.516%6.44
Under 5.584%1.18
Expected total: 3.6
ES anytime goalscorer
Indicativevery low sample (n=0)
Paco Alcácer (?)20%5.12
Jordi Alba (?)20%5.12
Sergi Roberto (?)20%5.12
Sergio Busquets (?)20%5.12
Raúl Albiol (?)20%5.12
Dani Carvajal (?)20%5.12
Nacho (?)20%5.12
Dani Ceballos (?)20%5.12
Expected total: 1.7
SA anytime goalscorer
Indicativevery low sample (n=0)
Sultan Mandash (Attacker)10%10.46
Feras Al Brikan (Attacker)10%10.46
Abdullah Al Hamdan (Attacker)10%10.46
Saleh Al Shehri (Attacker)10%10.46
Khalid Al Ghannam (Attacker)10%10.46
Musab Al Juwayr (Attacker)10%10.46
Abdullah Al Jadani (?)3%30.40
Abdullah Hussain Ali Al Saleh (?)3%30.40
Expected total: 0.7
Probabilities and fair odds are derived from the model's full score-line distribution (expected goals: home 2.17, away 0.34). Half-time and HT/FT markets use a 45/55 first-half split. These are model estimates, not a betting guarantee.