Spain vs Saudi Arabia
Group H · Matchday 2
· Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta
Goals (4)
Cards (2)
S. Al Dawsari
M. Kanno
Substitutions (10)
↑ M. Kanno for A. Al Khaibari
↑ A. Al Hamdan for M. Al Juwayr
↑ F. Torres for M. Oyarzabal
↑ Y. Pino for Lamine Yamal
↑ A. Hejji for A. Al Amri
↑ M. Abu Al Shamat for F. Al Buraikan
↑ M. Merino for D. Olmo
↑ N. Williams for A. Baena
↑ F. Ruiz for Pedri
↑ K. Al Ghannam for N. Al Dawsari
Match stats
Top performer
MOM. Oyarzabal
Spain · 1 goal
Lineups
Spain4-2-3-1
What's at stake
Matchday 2, Group H. The losing side here typically needs a Matchday 3 win plus favourable other-game results to advance.
Season form comparison
sample home 8 · away 3
Spain · last 5
Saudi Arabia · last 3
Head to head · 1 meetings
0
Spain wins
1
Draws
0
Saudi Arabia wins
Absences
model swing: 0 / 0 pp
Spain
No known absences.
Saudi Arabia
No known absences.
Win probability
Pre-match
The chart fills in from kickoff. We compute live win probability every 30 seconds.
Updated every 30s. Lines smoothed.
The model's read
High confidenceResult: Spain are strong favourites at 79%.
Goals: Goals are a coin-flip around the 2.5 line (over 46%).
Both score: Expect at least one clean sheet. Both-teams-score is just 26%.
Why the model leans this way
Factor contributions
home←·→away
Two-model view
Second model api-football
Two models divergeSpain
35%
Draw
35%
Saudi Arabia
30%
Their internal ratings (0-100)
Their advice: Combo Double chance : Spain or draw and -2.5 goals
Surfaced for transparency. We don't blend api-football's numbers into our model — a second opinion, not a vote.
Key players to watch
Spain
No per-90 data for this squad yet.
Per-90 stats: Rising Transfers (risingtransfers.com), CC BY 4.0
Match analysis
Score-line probability
brighter = more likely
Saudi Arabia goals
Most likely: 2-0 19%, 1-0 17%, 3-0 14%. Outlined cells are draws.
Total goals
over 2.5 = 45%
Brighter bars are 3+ goals (over 2.5). Dashed line is the O/U 2.5 split.
Team comparison
Percentile vs all 48 teams. Further out is stronger.
Fair odds for every market
How to use this
Fair odds is the lowest price worth taking. It is where a bet breaks even. If your bookmaker offers a bigger number than the fair odds here, the model says that's value. Shop around: the same bet is often priced differently across books.
Match result
Double chance
Draw no bet
Total goals
Odd / even goals
Exact total goals
Both teams to score
Team totals
Clean sheet
Win to nil
Asian handicap (home)
Correct score (top 8)
Half-time result
Half-time goals
Half-time / full-time
Corners (match total)
IndicativeExpected total: 11.1
ES corners
IndicativeExpected total: 6.6
SA corners
IndicativeExpected total: 4.5
Yellow cards (match total)
IndicativeExpected total: 3.6
ES anytime goalscorer
Indicativevery low sample (n=0)
Expected total: 1.7
SA anytime goalscorer
Indicativevery low sample (n=0)
Expected total: 0.7
Probabilities and fair odds are derived from the model's full score-line distribution (expected goals: home 2.17, away 0.34). Half-time and HT/FT markets use a 45/55 first-half split. These are model estimates, not a betting guarantee.