Belgium vs Iran

Group G · Matchday 2

· SoFi Stadium, Los Angeles

Group G standings →Bracket →BE 100% · IR 0% to advance

Belgium

63%

FT

0–0

HT 0–0

Iran

11%

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Goals

No goals scored.

Cards (3)

3'

R. Lukaku

Belgium
33'

S. Ezatolahi

Iran
66'

N. Ngoy

Belgium

Substitutions (10)

46'

↑ A. Jahanbakhsh for S. Hardani

Iran
58'

↑ D. Lukebakio for A. Saelemaekers

Belgium
58'

↑ H. Vanaken for N. Raskin

Belgium
58'

↑ T. Castagne for T. Meunier

Belgium
66'

↑ M. Torabi for M. Mohebi

Iran
66'

↑ M. Mohammadi for E. Hajsafi

Iran
73'

↑ A. Theate for R. Lukaku

Belgium
79'

↑ S. Moghanlou for S. Ghoddos

Iran
85'

↑ A. Hosseinzadeh for S. Ezatolahi

Iran
87'

↑ M. Fernandez-Pardo for K. De Bruyne

Belgium

Match stats

71%Possession29%
20Shots6
7Shots on target3
1.68Expected goals0.53
4Corners2
7Fouls9
3Offsides3
3Saves7
86%Pass accuracy73%

Lineups

Belgium4-2-3-1

Iran5-4-1

What's at stake

Matchday 2, Group G. The losing side here typically needs a Matchday 3 win plus favourable other-game results to advance.

Season form comparison

sample home 6 · away 3

2.33
Goals / match
1.00
1.17
Conceded / match
1.00
83%
BTTS rate
67%
17%
Clean sheet rate
33%
2.41
xG / match (club)
0.00
7.3
Corners / match
5.6
1.5
Yellows / match
2.0
60%
Possession
55%

Head to head · 1 meetings

0

Belgium wins

1

Draws

0

Iran wins

Last: Belgium 0-0 Iran (2026-06-21)avg 0.0 goals

Absences

model swing: 0 / 0 pp

Belgium

No known absences.

Iran

No known absences.

Win probability

Pre-match

The chart fills in from kickoff. We compute live win probability every 30 seconds.

Updated every 30s. Lines smoothed.

The model's read

High confidence

  • Result: Belgium are strong favourites at 63%.

  • Goals: A low-scoring game looks likely. Under 2.5 is favoured (60%).

  • Both score: Expect at least one clean sheet. Both-teams-score is just 37%.

Most likely score 1-0 (16%)

Why the model leans this way

Factor contributions

home←·→away

Rest days
-6.0%/+6.0%
Club xG form
+3.0%/-6.2%
Travel
0.0%/-1.0%

Two-model view

Second model api-football

Two models moderately agree

Belgium

35%

Draw

35%

Iran

30%

Their internal ratings (0-100)

50·
Form
·50
33·
Attack
·67
67·
Defence
·33

Their advice: Double chance : Belgium or draw

Surfaced for transparency. We don't blend api-football's numbers into our model — a second opinion, not a vote.

Key players to watch

Belgium

No per-90 data for this squad yet.

Per-90 stats: Rising Transfers (risingtransfers.com), CC BY 4.0

Match analysis

Score-line probability

brighter = more likely

Belgium goals
12
5
16
11
15
9
9
5
0123456

Iran goals

Most likely: 1-0 16%, 2-0 15%, 0-0 12%. Outlined cells are draws.

Total goals

over 2.5 = 40%

12
0
21
1
28
2
20
3
11
4
5
5
3
6+

Brighter bars are 3+ goals (over 2.5). Dashed line is the O/U 2.5 split.

Team comparison

AttackDefenceRatingSet-pieceattackSet-piecedefence
BelgiumIran

Percentile vs all 48 teams. Further out is stronger.

Fair odds for every market

How to use this

Fair odds is the lowest price worth taking. It is where a bet breaks even. If your bookmaker offers a bigger number than the fair odds here, the model says that's value. Shop around: the same bet is often priced differently across books.

Match result

Home win63%1.59
Draw26%3.92
Away win11%8.71

Double chance

Home or draw89%1.13
Home or away74%1.34
Draw or away37%2.70

Draw no bet

Home (DNB)85%1.18
Away (DNB)15%6.48

Total goals

Over 0.588%1.13
Under 0.512%8.66
Over 1.568%1.48
Under 1.532%3.10
Over 2.540%2.51
Under 2.560%1.66
Over 3.520%5.10
Under 3.580%1.24
Over 4.58%12.32
Under 4.592%1.09

Odd / even goals

Odd47%2.13
Even53%1.88

Exact total goals

0 goals12%8.66
1 goals21%4.82
2 goals28%3.59
3 goals20%4.95
4 goals12%8.70
5 goals5%19.09
6+ goals3%34.71

Both teams to score

Yes37%2.72
No63%1.58

Team totals

Home over 0.582%1.22
Home over 1.551%1.96
Home over 2.525%4.07
Away over 0.543%2.31
Away over 1.511%9.00
Away over 2.52%50.05

Clean sheet

Home clean sheet57%1.76
Away clean sheet18%5.53

Win to nil

Home win to nil45%2.21
Away win to nil7%15.32

Asian handicap (home)

Home -2.517%5.79
Home -1.538%2.65
Home -0.564%1.56
Home +0.589%1.12
Home +1.597%1.03
Home +2.599%+1.00

Correct score (top 8)

1-016%6.16
2-015%6.67
0-012%8.66
1-111%8.90
3-09%11.69
2-19%11.76
3-15%20.61
0-15%22.13

Half-time result

Home45%2.21
Draw43%2.31
Away11%8.74

Half-time goals

Over 0.564%1.56
Under 0.536%2.79
Over 1.527%3.66
Under 1.573%1.38

Half-time / full-time

Home/Home41%2.41
Home/Draw3%30.24
Home/Away1%186.53
Draw/Home22%4.58
Draw/Draw16%6.15
Draw/Away5%19.29
Away/Home2%49.35
Away/Draw3%30.24
Away/Away6%16.37

Corners (match total)

Indicative
Over 8.585%1.17
Under 8.515%6.81
Over 9.577%1.30
Under 9.523%4.32
Over 10.567%1.50
Under 10.533%2.99
Over 11.555%1.81
Under 11.545%2.24
Over 12.544%2.28
Under 12.556%1.78

Expected total: 12.1

BE corners

Indicative
Over 3.590%1.12
Under 3.510%9.57
Over 4.579%1.27
Under 4.521%4.72
Over 5.565%1.55
Under 5.535%2.83
Over 6.549%2.04
Under 6.551%1.96

Expected total: 6.6

IR corners

Indicative
Over 3.580%1.25
Under 3.520%5.01
Over 4.565%1.55
Under 4.535%2.82
Over 5.547%2.11
Under 5.553%1.90
Over 6.532%3.16
Under 6.568%1.46

Expected total: 5.5

Yellow cards (match total)

Indicative
Over 2.563%1.60
Under 2.537%2.67
Over 3.540%2.48
Under 3.560%1.68
Over 4.522%4.46
Under 4.578%1.29
Over 5.511%9.21
Under 5.589%1.12

Expected total: 3.2

BE anytime goalscorer

Indicative

very low sample (n=0)

A. Witsel (Midfielder)16%6.36
C. Ngonge (?)16%6.36
N. Chadli (?)16%6.36
Thomas Vermaelen (?)16%6.36
T. Alderweireld (?)16%6.36
J. Vertonghen (?)16%6.36
S. Mignolet (?)16%6.36
D. Mertens (?)16%6.36

Expected total: 1.4

IR anytime goalscorer

Indicative

low sample (n=1)

A. Alipour (Attacker)16%6.39
M. Ghaedi (Attacker)16%6.39
A. Hosseinzadeh (Attacker)16%6.39
D. Eckert Ayensa (Attacker)16%6.39
S. Moghanlou (Attacker)16%6.39
M. Mohebi (Midfielder)6%15.85
K. Rezaei (?)6%18.15
S. Azmoun (?)6%18.15

Expected total: 1.0

Probabilities and fair odds are derived from the model's full score-line distribution (expected goals: home 1.71, away 0.57). Half-time and HT/FT markets use a 45/55 first-half split. These are model estimates, not a betting guarantee.