Norway vs Senegal

Group I · Matchday 2

· MetLife Stadium, New York

Group I standings →Bracket →NO 100% · SN 100% to advance

Norway

39%

3–2

Senegal

35%

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Goals (5)

43'

M. Pedersen

Norway

48'

E. Haaland

Norway

53'

I. Sarr

Senegal

58'

E. Haaland

Norway

90'

I. Sarr

assist: N. Jackson

Senegal

Substitutions (10)

13'

↑ M. Pedersen for J. Ryerson

Norway

46'

↑ P. Berg for F. Aursnes

Norway

54'

↑ I. Jakobs for M. Diouf

Senegal

54'

↑ I. Mbaye for P. Gueye

Senegal

63'

↑ M. Diaw for E. Mendy

Senegal

63'

↑ P. Ciss for L. Camara

Senegal

71'

↑ A. Schjelderup for A. Nusa

Norway

72'

↑ P. M. Sarr for K. Koulibaly

Senegal

84'

↑ O. Bobb for A. Sorloth

Norway

84'

↑ L. Ostigard for T. Heggem

Norway

Match stats

43%Possession57%

13Shots14

7Shots on target4

2.10Expected goals1.20

5Corners3

13Fouls5

0Offsides4

2Saves3

81%Pass accuracy88%

Top performer

E. Haaland

Norway · 2 goals

Lineups

Norway4-3-3

Senegal4-2-3-1

What's at stake

Matchday 2, Group I. The losing side here typically needs a Matchday 3 win plus favourable other-game results to advance.

Season form comparison

sample home 6 · away 4

2.17

Goals / match

2.50

1.83

Conceded / match

2.25

100%

BTTS rate

75%

Clean sheet rate

25%

3.63

xG / match (club)

0.00

6.3

Corners / match

5.7

1.2

Yellows / match

1.8

58%

Possession

52%

Norway · last 5

Senegal3-223 June LH

France1-426 June WA

Ivory Coast1-230 June WA

Senegal · last 4

Head to head · 1 meetings

Norway wins

Draws

Senegal wins

Last: Norway 3-2 Senegal (2026-06-23)avg 5.0 goals

Absences

model swing: 0 / 0 pp

Norway

No known absences.

Senegal

No known absences.

Win probability

Pre-match

The chart fills in from kickoff. We compute live win probability every 30 seconds.

Updated every 30s. Lines smoothed.

The model's read

Wide-open match

Result: An open match. Norway edge it at just 39%.
Goals: Goals expected. Over 2.5 lands 65% of the time.
Both score: Both teams to score is likely (67%).

Most likely score 1-1 (11%)

Why the model leans this way

Factor contributions

home←·→away

Rest days

-6.0%/+6.0%

Club xG form

+4.8%/-4.4%

Travel

-1.0%/-4.0%

Two-model view

Second model api-football

Two-model consensus

Norway

50%

Draw

50%

Senegal

Their internal ratings (0-100)

100·

Form

·0

80·

Attack

·20

75·

Defence

·25

Their advice: Combo Winner : Norway and +1.5 goals

Surfaced for transparency. We don't blend api-football's numbers into our model — a second opinion, not a vote.

Match analysis

Score-line probability

brighter = more likely

Norway goals

0123456

Senegal goals

Most likely: 1-1 11%, 2-1 9%, 1-2 8%. Outlined cells are draws.

Total goals

over 2.5 = 65%

Brighter bars are 3+ goals (over 2.5). Dashed line is the O/U 2.5 split.

Team comparison

NorwaySenegal

Percentile vs all 48 teams. Further out is stronger.

Fair odds for every market

How to use this

Fair odds is the lowest price worth taking. It is where a bet breaks even. If your bookmaker offers a bigger number than the fair odds here, the model says that's value. Shop around: the same bet is often priced differently across books.

Match result

Home win39%2.54

Draw26%3.86

Away win35%2.88

Double chance

Home or draw65%1.53

Home or away74%1.35

Draw or away61%1.65

Draw no bet

Home (DNB)53%1.88

Away (DNB)47%2.14

Total goals

Over 0.595%1.05

Under 0.55%21.14

Over 1.586%1.16

Under 1.514%7.23

Over 2.565%1.53

Under 2.535%2.88

Over 3.543%2.31

Under 3.557%1.77

Over 4.525%4.01

Under 4.575%1.33

Odd / even goals

Odd47%2.11

Even53%1.90

Exact total goals

0 goals5%21.14

1 goals9%10.99

2 goals21%4.80

3 goals22%4.56

4 goals18%5.42

5 goals12%8.05

6+ goals12%8.00

Both teams to score

Yes67%1.48

No33%3.07

Team totals

Home over 0.583%1.21

Home over 1.552%1.92

Home over 2.525%3.93

Away over 0.580%1.25

Away over 1.548%2.08

Away over 2.522%4.50

Clean sheet

Home clean sheet20%5.06

Away clean sheet18%5.71

Win to nil

Home win to nil15%6.65

Away win to nil13%7.83

Asian handicap (home)

Home -2.59%10.87

Home -1.522%4.65

Home -0.540%2.51

Home +0.565%1.53

Home +1.582%1.22

Home +2.593%1.08

Correct score (top 8)

1-111%9.05

2-19%11.74

1-28%12.62

2-27%14.48

2-05%19.03

3-15%20.20

1-05%21.01

0-05%21.14

Half-time result

Home33%3.00

Draw37%2.74

Away30%3.32

Half-time goals

Over 0.578%1.28

Under 0.522%4.54

Over 1.545%2.24

Under 1.555%1.81

Half-time / full-time

Home/Home25%3.98

Home/Draw5%18.29

Home/Away3%36.13

Draw/Home13%7.68

Draw/Draw12%8.47

Draw/Away12%8.55

Away/Home3%32.81

Away/Draw5%18.29

Away/Away22%4.63

Corners (match total)

Indicative

Over 8.579%1.26

Under 8.521%4.80

Over 9.569%1.45

Under 9.531%3.21

Over 10.557%1.75

Under 10.543%2.34

Over 11.545%2.20

Under 11.555%1.83

Over 12.534%2.92

Under 12.566%1.52

Expected total: 11.3

NO corners

Indicative

Over 3.583%1.21

Under 3.517%5.74

Over 4.568%1.47

Under 4.532%3.14

Over 5.551%1.94

Under 5.549%2.06

Over 6.535%2.82

Under 6.565%1.55

Expected total: 5.8

SN corners

Indicative

Over 3.580%1.25

Under 3.520%5.01

Over 4.565%1.55

Under 4.535%2.82

Over 5.547%2.11

Under 5.553%1.90

Over 6.532%3.15

Under 6.568%1.46

Expected total: 5.5

Yellow cards (match total)

Indicative

Over 2.562%1.62

Under 2.538%2.62

Over 3.540%2.53

Under 3.560%1.65

Over 4.522%4.59

Under 4.578%1.28

Over 5.510%9.58

Under 5.590%1.12

Expected total: 3.2

NO anytime goalscorer

Indicative

very low sample (n=0)

A. Hansen (?)16%6.25

Tore Reginiussen (?)16%6.25

Håvard Nordtveit (?)16%6.25

S. Johansen (?)16%6.25

R. Jarstein (?)16%6.25

O. Omoijuanfo (?)16%6.25

S. Rossbach (?)16%6.25

T. Lehne Olsen (?)16%6.25

Expected total: 1.4

SN anytime goalscorer

Indicative

very low sample (n=0)

N. Fadiga (?)15%6.68

K. Baldé (?)15%6.68

M. Loum (?)15%6.68

Salif Sané (?)15%6.68

B. Ndiaye (?)15%6.68

M. Diagne (?)15%6.68

Pape Cheikh (?)15%6.68

Y. Sabaly (?)15%6.68

Expected total: 1.3

Probabilities and fair odds are derived from the model's full score-line distribution (expected goals: home 1.74, away 1.62). Half-time and HT/FT markets use a 45/55 first-half split. These are model estimates, not a betting guarantee.