France vs Senegal

Group I · Matchday 1

· MetLife Stadium, New York

Group I standings →Bracket →FR 100% · SN 100% to advance

France

64%

3–1

HT 0–0

Senegal

14%

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Goals (4)

66'

K. Mbappe

assist: M. Olise

France

82'

B. Barcola

assist: A. Rabiot

France

90'

I. Mbaye

assist: I. Ndiaye

Senegal

90'

K. Mbappe

France

Substitutions (7)

75'

↑ I. Mbaye for I. Sarr

Senegal

76'

↑ H. Diarra for L. Camara

Senegal

80'

↑ B. Barcola for O. Dembele

France

83'

↑ B. Dieng for N. Jackson

Senegal

83'

↑ I. Ndiaye for P. Gueye

Senegal

87'

↑ R. Cherki for D. Doue

France

88'

↑ P. Ciss for I. Gueye

Senegal

Match stats

53%Possession47%

11Shots6

8Shots on target2

1.79Expected goals0.53

6Corners4

5Fouls9

1Offsides3

2Saves5

88%Pass accuracy86%

Top performer

K. Mbappe

France · 2 goals

Lineups

France4-2-3-1

Senegal4-2-3-1

What's at stake

Matchday 1, Group I opener. A win swings ~30 percentage points of qualification odds.

Season form comparison

sample home 8 · away 4

2.50

Goals / match

2.50

1.25

Conceded / match

2.25

38%

BTTS rate

75%

50%

Clean sheet rate

25%

2.23

xG / match (club)

0.00

6.0

Corners / match

5.7

1.4

Yellows / match

1.8

58%

Possession

52%

France · last 5

Senegal · last 4

Head to head · 1 meetings

France wins

Draws

Senegal wins

Last: France 3-1 Senegal (2026-06-16)avg 4.0 goals

Absences

model swing: 0 / 0 pp

France

No known absences.

Senegal

No known absences.

Win probability

Pre-match

The chart fills in from kickoff. We compute live win probability every 30 seconds.

Updated every 30s. Lines smoothed.

The model's read

High confidence

Result: France are strong favourites at 64%.
Goals: Goals expected. Over 2.5 lands 62% of the time.

Most likely score 2-0 (10%)

Why the model leans this way

Factor contributions

home←·→away

Rest days

-6.0%/+6.0%

Club xG form

+1.3%/-4.3%

Travel

-1.0%/-4.0%

Set pieces

+1.0%/+0.1%

Two-model view

Second model api-football

Two models diverge

France

33%

Draw

33%

Senegal

33%

Their internal ratings (0-100)

0·

Form

·0

0·

Attack

·0

0·

Defence

·0

Their advice: No predictions available

Surfaced for transparency. We don't blend api-football's numbers into our model — a second opinion, not a vote.

Match analysis

Score-line probability

brighter = more likely

France goals

0123456

Senegal goals

Most likely: 2-0 10%, 1-1 10%, 2-1 10%. Outlined cells are draws.

Total goals

over 2.5 = 61%

Brighter bars are 3+ goals (over 2.5). Dashed line is the O/U 2.5 split.

Team comparison

FranceSenegal

Percentile vs all 48 teams. Further out is stronger.

Fair odds for every market

How to use this

Fair odds is the lowest price worth taking. It is where a bet breaks even. If your bookmaker offers a bigger number than the fair odds here, the model says that's value. Shop around: the same bet is often priced differently across books.

Match result

Home win64%1.56

Draw21%4.69

Away win14%6.90

Double chance

Home or draw86%1.17

Home or away79%1.27

Draw or away36%2.79

Draw no bet

Home (DNB)82%1.23

Away (DNB)18%5.43

Total goals

Over 0.595%1.06

Under 0.55%18.99

Over 1.584%1.19

Under 1.516%6.20

Over 2.562%1.62

Under 2.538%2.61

Over 3.539%2.53

Under 3.561%1.65

Over 4.522%4.60

Under 4.578%1.28

Odd / even goals

Odd48%2.10

Even52%1.91

Exact total goals

0 goals5%18.99

1 goals11%9.20

2 goals22%4.52

3 goals22%4.49

4 goals18%5.63

5 goals11%8.83

6+ goals10%9.61

Both teams to score

Yes56%1.79

No44%2.27

Team totals

Home over 0.589%1.12

Home over 1.565%1.53

Home over 2.539%2.58

Away over 0.561%1.63

Away over 1.525%4.07

Away over 2.57%14.05

Clean sheet

Home clean sheet39%2.58

Away clean sheet11%9.38

Win to nil

Home win to nil33%2.99

Away win to nil5%18.55

Asian handicap (home)

Home -2.523%4.27

Home -1.543%2.31

Home -0.565%1.53

Home +0.587%1.16

Home +1.595%1.05

Home +2.599%1.01

Correct score (top 8)

2-010%9.67

1-110%10.10

2-110%10.19

1-08%12.35

3-08%12.96

3-17%13.65

0-05%18.99

2-25%21.48

Half-time result

Home49%2.03

Draw35%2.84

Away15%6.49

Half-time goals

Over 0.576%1.31

Under 0.524%4.20

Over 1.542%2.38

Under 1.558%1.72

Half-time / full-time

Home/Home44%2.26

Home/Draw4%24.67

Home/Away1%90.87

Draw/Home19%5.27

Draw/Draw11%9.35

Draw/Away6%18.05

Away/Home3%29.83

Away/Draw4%24.67

Away/Away8%12.50

Corners (match total)

Indicative

Over 8.580%1.25

Under 8.520%5.05

Over 9.570%1.42

Under 9.530%3.35

Over 10.559%1.70

Under 10.541%2.42

Over 11.547%2.13

Under 11.553%1.88

Over 12.536%2.81

Under 12.564%1.55

Expected total: 11.4

FR corners

Indicative

Over 3.584%1.19

Under 3.516%6.18

Over 4.570%1.43

Under 4.530%3.33

Over 5.554%1.87

Under 5.546%2.15

Over 6.538%2.66

Under 6.562%1.60

Expected total: 5.9

SN corners

Indicative

Over 3.580%1.25

Under 3.520%5.01

Over 4.565%1.55

Under 4.535%2.82

Over 5.547%2.11

Under 5.553%1.90

Over 6.532%3.15

Under 6.568%1.46

Expected total: 5.5

Yellow cards (match total)

Indicative

Over 2.561%1.63

Under 2.539%2.58

Over 3.539%2.56

Under 3.561%1.64

Over 4.521%4.68

Under 4.579%1.27

Over 5.510%9.84

Under 5.590%1.11

Expected total: 3.2

FR anytime goalscorer

Indicative

very low sample (n=0)

T. Lemar (?)20%4.99

M. Diaby (?)20%4.99

K. Coman (?)20%4.99

L. Dubois (?)20%4.99

H. Aouar (Midfielder)20%4.99

N. Fekir (?)20%4.99

K. Benzema (?)20%4.99

B. Matuidi (?)20%4.99

Expected total: 1.8

SN anytime goalscorer

Indicative

very low sample (n=0)

N. Fadiga (?)9%11.05

K. Baldé (?)9%11.05

M. Loum (?)9%11.05

Salif Sané (?)9%11.05

B. Ndiaye (?)9%11.05

M. Diagne (?)9%11.05

Pape Cheikh (?)9%11.05

Y. Sabaly (?)9%11.05

Expected total: 0.8

Probabilities and fair odds are derived from the model's full score-line distribution (expected goals: home 2.24, away 0.95). Half-time and HT/FT markets use a 45/55 first-half split. These are model estimates, not a betting guarantee.