Portugal vs Uzbekistan

Group K · Matchday 2

· NRG Stadium, Houston

Group K standings →Bracket →PT 100% · UZ 0% to advance

Portugal

86%

5–0

Uzbekistan

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Goals (5)

C. Ronaldo

assist: J. Cancelo

Portugal

17'

N. Mendes

Portugal

39'

C. Ronaldo

Portugal

60'

A. Nematovog

Portugal

87'

R. Leao

Portugal

Cards (2)

14'

O. Khamrobekov

Uzbekistan

68'

R. Veiga

Portugal

Substitutions (10)

46'

↑ N. Semedo for J. Cancelo

Portugal

46'

↑ F. Conceicao for P. Neto

Portugal

46'

↑ K. Alizhonov for S. Nasrullaev

Uzbekistan

46'

↑ A. Mozgovoy for O. Khamrobekov

Uzbekistan

63'

↑ Trincao for Joao Felix

Portugal

73'

↑ I. Sergeev for A. Fayzullaev

Uzbekistan

76'

↑ B. Silva for J. Neves

Portugal

83'

↑ R. Leao for Vitinha

Portugal

92'

↑ R. Jiyanov for B. Karimov

Uzbekistan

92'

↑ S. Esanov for O. Shukurov

Uzbekistan

Match stats

66%Possession34%

16Shots7

9Shots on target2

2.36Expected goals0.24

3Corners2

13Fouls14

1Offsides1

2Saves4

90%Pass accuracy81%

Top performer

C. Ronaldo

Portugal · 2 goals

Lineups

Portugal4-2-3-1

Uzbekistan3-4-2-1

What's at stake

Matchday 2, Group K. The losing side here typically needs a Matchday 3 win plus favourable other-game results to advance.

Season form comparison

sample home 5 · away 3

1.60

Goals / match

0.67

0.60

Conceded / match

3.67

40%

BTTS rate

67%

40%

Clean sheet rate

3.07

xG / match (club)

0.00

7.1

Corners / match

4.3

1.7

Yellows / match

1.4

66%

Possession

48%

Portugal · last 5

DR Congo1-117 June WH

Uzbekistan5-023 June DA

Colombia0-027 June WH

Croatia2-12 July LH

Spain0-16 July

Uzbekistan · last 3

Colombia1-318 June LA

Portugal5-023 June LA

DR Congo3-127 June

Head to head · 1 meetings

Portugal wins

Draws

Uzbekistan wins

Last: Portugal 0-0 Uzbekistan (2026-06-23)avg 0.0 goals

Absences

model swing: 0 / 0 pp

Portugal

No known absences.

Uzbekistan

No known absences.

Win probability

Pre-match

The chart fills in from kickoff. We compute live win probability every 30 seconds.

Updated every 30s. Lines smoothed.

The model's read

High confidence

Result: Portugal are strong favourites at 86%.
Goals: Goals expected. Over 2.5 lands 63% of the time.
Both score: Expect at least one clean sheet. Both-teams-score is just 32%.

Most likely score 2-0 (16%)

Why the model leans this way

Factor contributions

home←·→away

Rest days

-6.0%/+6.0%

Club xG form

+3.3%/-3.9%

Set pieces

+1.1%/-0.6%

Travel

0.0%/-1.0%

Two-model view

Second model api-football

Two models diverge

Portugal

45%

Draw

45%

Uzbekistan

10%

Their internal ratings (0-100)

100·

Form

·0

50·

Attack

·50

75·

Defence

·25

Their advice: Double chance : Portugal or draw

Surfaced for transparency. We don't blend api-football's numbers into our model — a second opinion, not a vote.

Key players to watch

Portugal

Uzbekistan

No per-90 data for this squad yet.

Per-90 stats: Rising Transfers (risingtransfers.com), CC BY 4.0

Match analysis

Score-line probability

brighter = more likely

Portugal goals

0123456

Uzbekistan goals

Most likely: 2-0 16%, 3-0 15%, 4-0 11%. Outlined cells are draws.

Total goals

over 2.5 = 60%

Brighter bars are 3+ goals (over 2.5). Dashed line is the O/U 2.5 split.

Team comparison

PortugalUzbekistan

Percentile vs all 48 teams. Further out is stronger.

Fair odds for every market

How to use this

Fair odds is the lowest price worth taking. It is where a bet breaks even. If your bookmaker offers a bigger number than the fair odds here, the model says that's value. Shop around: the same bet is often priced differently across books.

Match result

Home win86%1.16

Draw11%9.10

Away win3%31.68

Double chance

Home or draw97%1.03

Home or away89%1.12

Draw or away14%7.07

Draw no bet

Home (DNB)96%1.04

Away (DNB)4%28.20

Total goals

Over 0.596%1.05

Under 0.54%22.35

Over 1.584%1.19

Under 1.516%6.27

Over 2.563%1.59

Under 2.537%2.70

Over 3.541%2.45

Under 3.559%1.69

Over 4.523%4.40

Under 4.577%1.29

Odd / even goals

Odd49%2.05

Even51%1.95

Exact total goals

0 goals4%22.35

1 goals11%8.71

2 goals21%4.74

3 goals22%4.51

4 goals18%5.55

5 goals12%8.55

6+ goals11%9.05

Both teams to score

Yes32%3.14

No68%1.47

Team totals

Home over 0.594%1.06

Home over 1.578%1.29

Home over 2.554%1.85

Away over 0.533%3.01

Away over 1.56%15.97

Away over 2.51%122.81

Clean sheet

Home clean sheet67%1.50

Away clean sheet6%17.15

Win to nil

Home win to nil62%1.61

Away win to nil1%73.69

Asian handicap (home)

Home -2.546%2.20

Home -1.568%1.47

Home -0.586%1.16

Home +0.597%1.03

Home +1.599%1.01

Home +2.599%+1.00

Correct score (top 8)

2-016%6.36

3-015%6.71

4-011%9.45

1-010%9.54

2-16%15.74

3-16%16.62

5-06%16.62

1-15%19.79

Half-time result

Home66%1.52

Draw29%3.46

Away5%19.35

Half-time goals

Over 0.577%1.30

Under 0.523%4.31

Over 1.543%2.33

Under 1.557%1.75

Half-time / full-time

Home/Home64%1.56

Home/Draw2%63.85

Home/Away<1%576.10

Draw/Home21%4.80

Draw/Draw7%14.95

Draw/Away1%70.37

Away/Home2%49.73

Away/Draw2%63.85

Away/Away2%62.82

Corners (match total)

Indicative

low sample (n=12)

Over 8.580%1.25

Under 8.520%4.99

Over 9.570%1.43

Under 9.530%3.32

Over 10.558%1.71

Under 10.542%2.40

Over 11.547%2.15

Under 11.553%1.87

Over 12.535%2.83

Under 12.565%1.55

Expected total: 11.4

PT corners

Indicative

Over 3.591%1.10

Under 3.59%11.09

Over 4.581%1.23

Under 4.519%5.33

Over 5.568%1.47

Under 5.532%3.12

Over 6.553%1.90

Under 6.547%2.11

Expected total: 6.8

UZ corners

Indicative

low sample (n=12)

Over 3.566%1.51

Under 3.534%2.96

Over 4.547%2.11

Under 4.553%1.90

Over 5.530%3.31

Under 5.570%1.43

Over 6.517%5.79

Under 6.583%1.21

Expected total: 4.5

Yellow cards (match total)

Indicative

low sample (n=11)

Over 2.561%1.65

Under 2.539%2.54

Over 3.538%2.61

Under 3.562%1.62

Over 4.521%4.82

Under 4.579%1.26

Over 5.510%10.21

Under 5.590%1.11

Expected total: 3.1

PT anytime goalscorer

Indicative

very low sample (n=0)

João Félix (Attacker)57%1.74

Raphaël Guerreiro (?)25%4.04

João Mário (?)25%4.04

Mário Rui (?)25%4.04

Pepe (?)25%4.04

Diogo Leite (?)25%4.04

Éderzito António Macedo Lopes (?)25%4.04

Bruno Varela (?)25%4.04

Expected total: 2.8

UZ anytime goalscorer

Indicative

very low sample (n=0)

A. Amonov (Attacker)11%8.76

O. O'runov (Attacker)11%8.76

I. Sergeev (Attacker)11%8.76

A. Gʻaniyev (Attacker)11%8.76

O. Akhmedov (?)4%25.25

F. Musaev (?)4%25.25

D. Tursunov (?)4%25.25

I. Alibaev (?)4%25.25

Expected total: 0.6

Probabilities and fair odds are derived from the model's full score-line distribution (expected goals: home 2.84, away 0.40). Half-time and HT/FT markets use a 45/55 first-half split. These are model estimates, not a betting guarantee.