Panama vs Croatia

Group L · Matchday 2

· BMO Field, Toronto

Group L standings →Bracket →PA 0% · HR 100% to advance

Panama

0–1

Croatia

74%

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Goals (1)

54'

A. Budimir

assist: J. Stanisic

Croatia

Cards (2)

61'

Y. Barcenas

Panama

92'

Petar Sučić

Croatia

Substitutions (9)

46'

↑ A. Kramaric for J. Gvardiol

Croatia

46'

↑ A. Budimir for P. Musa

Croatia

72'

↑ L. Sucic for M. Pasalic

Croatia

72'

↑ P. Sucic for M. Kovacic

Croatia

77'

↑ C. Waterman for J. Ramos

Panama

81'

↑ M. Pasalic for L. Modric

Croatia

83'

↑ A. Londono for J. Fajardo

Panama

90'

↑ T. Rodriguez for Y. Barcenas

Panama

90'

↑ E. Davis for C. Blackman

Panama

Match stats

36%Possession64%

1Shots2

0Shots on target1

0.06Expected goals0.05

0Corners1

9Fouls5

1Saves0

79%Pass accuracy88%

Top performer

A. Budimir

Croatia · 1 goal

Lineups

Panama5-4-1

Croatia4-2-3-1

What's at stake

Matchday 2, Group L. The losing side here typically needs a Matchday 3 win plus favourable other-game results to advance.

Season form comparison

sample home 3 · away 4

0.00

Goals / match

1.50

1.33

Conceded / match

1.75

BTTS rate

75%

Clean sheet rate

25%

1.00

xG / match (club)

2.42

4.3

Corners / match

6.0

2.0

Yellows / match

1.6

55%

Possession

60%

Panama · last 3

Croatia · last 4

Head to head · 1 meetings

Panama wins

Draws

Croatia wins

Last: Panama 0-1 Croatia (2026-06-23)avg 1.0 goals

Absences

model swing: 0 / 0 pp

Panama

No known absences.

Croatia

No known absences.

Win probability

Pre-match

The chart fills in from kickoff. We compute live win probability every 30 seconds.

Updated every 30s. Lines smoothed.

The model's read

High confidence

Result: Croatia are strong favourites at 74%.
Goals: A low-scoring game looks likely. Under 2.5 is favoured (60%).
Both score: Expect at least one clean sheet. Both-teams-score is just 26%.

Most likely score 0-2 (19%)

Why the model leans this way

Factor contributions

home←·→away

Rest days

+6.0%/-6.0%

Club xG form

-6.7%/+2.7%

Set pieces

-1.1%/+1.5%

Two-model view

Second model api-football

Two models diverge

Panama

33%

Draw

33%

Croatia

33%

Their internal ratings (0-100)

0·

Form

·0

0·

Attack

·100

80·

Defence

·20

Their advice: No predictions available

Surfaced for transparency. We don't blend api-football's numbers into our model — a second opinion, not a vote.

Match analysis

Score-line probability

brighter = more likely

Panama goals

0123456

Croatia goals

Most likely: 0-2 19%, 0-1 19%, 0-3 12%. Outlined cells are draws.

Total goals

over 2.5 = 40%

Brighter bars are 3+ goals (over 2.5). Dashed line is the O/U 2.5 split.

Team comparison

PanamaCroatia

Percentile vs all 48 teams. Further out is stronger.

Fair odds for every market

How to use this

Fair odds is the lowest price worth taking. It is where a bet breaks even. If your bookmaker offers a bigger number than the fair odds here, the model says that's value. Shop around: the same bet is often priced differently across books.

Match result

Home win6%17.77

Draw20%5.01

Away win74%1.34

Double chance

Home or draw26%3.91

Home or away80%1.25

Draw or away94%1.06

Draw no bet

Home (DNB)7%14.22

Away (DNB)93%1.08

Total goals

Over 0.589%1.12

Under 0.511%9.18

Over 1.568%1.47

Under 1.532%3.11

Over 2.540%2.47

Under 2.560%1.68

Over 3.520%4.97

Under 3.580%1.25

Over 4.58%11.89

Under 4.592%1.09

Odd / even goals

Odd48%2.10

Even52%1.91

Exact total goals

0 goals11%9.18

1 goals21%4.71

2 goals27%3.65

3 goals20%4.91

4 goals12%8.54

5 goals5%18.53

6+ goals3%33.19

Both teams to score

Yes26%3.79

No74%1.36

Team totals

Home over 0.530%3.36

Home over 1.55%20.24

Home over 2.51%177.33

Away over 0.586%1.17

Away over 1.558%1.72

Away over 2.531%3.23

Clean sheet

Home clean sheet14%7.03

Away clean sheet70%1.42

Win to nil

Home win to nil3%29.97

Away win to nil59%1.68

Asian handicap (home)

Home -2.5<1%1055.44

Home -1.51%114.51

Home -0.55%20.54

Home +0.525%4.03

Home +1.551%1.96

Home +2.575%1.34

Correct score (top 8)

0-219%5.26

0-119%5.38

0-312%8.10

0-011%9.18

1-18%12.86

1-27%14.91

0-46%16.61

1-34%22.93

Half-time result

Home7%15.31

Draw41%2.46

Away53%1.89

Half-time goals

Over 0.565%1.55

Under 0.535%2.82

Over 1.528%3.60

Under 1.572%1.38

Half-time / full-time

Home/Home3%35.09

Home/Draw2%47.53

Home/Away2%63.37

Draw/Home3%36.95

Draw/Draw14%7.17

Draw/Away24%4.18

Away/Home<1%480.98

Away/Draw2%47.53

Away/Away51%1.98

Corners (match total)

Indicative

Over 8.566%1.51

Under 8.534%2.96

Over 9.554%1.86

Under 9.546%2.16

Over 10.541%2.43

Under 10.559%1.70

Over 11.530%3.35

Under 11.570%1.42

Over 12.520%4.89

Under 12.580%1.26

Expected total: 10.0

PA corners

Indicative

Over 3.565%1.55

Under 3.535%2.82

Over 4.545%2.20

Under 4.555%1.83

Over 5.528%3.52

Under 5.572%1.40

Over 6.516%6.27

Under 6.584%1.19

Expected total: 4.4

HR corners

Indicative

Over 3.580%1.25

Under 3.520%5.04

Over 4.565%1.55

Under 4.535%2.83

Over 5.548%2.10

Under 5.552%1.91

Over 6.532%3.14

Under 6.568%1.47

Expected total: 5.5

Yellow cards (match total)

Indicative

Over 2.572%1.38

Under 2.528%3.63

Over 3.552%1.93

Under 3.548%2.08

Over 4.532%3.08

Under 4.568%1.48

Over 5.518%5.60

Under 5.582%1.22

Expected total: 3.8

PA anytime goalscorer

Indicative

very low sample (n=0)

J. Fajardo (Attacker)10%9.95

C. Waterman (Attacker)10%9.95

T. Rodríguez (Attacker)10%9.95

H. Cummings (?)3%28.82

A. Machado (?)3%28.82

J. Vargas (?)3%28.82

A. Cooper (?)3%28.82

A. Quintero (Midfielder)3%28.82

Expected total: 0.5

HR anytime goalscorer

Indicative

very low sample (n=0)

M. Mitrović (?)18%5.64

I. Rakitić (?)18%5.64

Šime Vrsaljko (?)18%5.64

M. Brozović (?)18%5.64

D. Lovren (?)18%5.64

M. Livaja (?)18%5.64

L. Modrić (Midfielder)18%5.64

F. Benković (?)18%5.64

Expected total: 1.6

Probabilities and fair odds are derived from the model's full score-line distribution (expected goals: home 0.35, away 1.95). Half-time and HT/FT markets use a 45/55 first-half split. These are model estimates, not a betting guarantee.