England vs Croatia

Group L · Matchday 1

· AT&T Stadium, Dallas

Group L standings →Bracket →GB-ENG 100% · HR 100% to advance

England

50%

4–2

HT 2–2

Croatia

26%

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Goals (6)

12'

H. Kanepen

England

36'

M. Baturina

assist: P. Sucic

Croatia

42'

H. Kane

assist: D. Rice

England

45'

P. Musa

assist: I. Perisic

Croatia

47'

J. Bellingham

assist: E. Anderson

England

85'

M. Rashford

assist: B. Saka

England

Substitutions (10)

58'

↑ M. Kovacic for L. Modric

Croatia

66'

↑ M. Pasalic for L. Vuskovic

Croatia

66'

↑ I. Matanovic for P. Musa

Croatia

72'

↑ M. Rogers for D. Rice

England

72'

↑ B. Saka for N. Madueke

England

72'

↑ M. Rashford for A. Gordon

England

78'

↑ A. Kramaric for M. Pasalic

Croatia

78'

↑ N. Vlasic for M. Baturina

Croatia

80'

↑ D. Spence for J. Bellingham

England

87'

↑ M. Guehi for J. Stones

England

Match stats

52%Possession48%

22Shots10

11Shots on target5

3.20Expected goals0.70

8Corners2

10Fouls12

0Offsides1

3Saves7

86%Pass accuracy86%

Top performer

H. Kane

England · 2 goals

Lineups

England4-2-3-1

Croatia3-4-2-1

What's at stake

Matchday 1, Group L opener. A win swings ~30 percentage points of qualification odds.

Season form comparison

sample home 8 · away 4

2.50

Goals / match

1.50

Conceded / match

1.75

75%

BTTS rate

75%

25%

Clean sheet rate

25%

1.51

xG / match (club)

2.42

5.8

Corners / match

6.0

1.4

Yellows / match

1.6

65%

Possession

60%

England · last 5

DR Congo2-11 July WA

Mexico2-36 July WA

Norway1-211 July LH

Argentina1-215 July WA

Croatia · last 4

Head to head · 5 meetings

England wins

Draws

Croatia wins

Last: England 4-2 Croatia (2026-06-17)avg 2.6 goals

Absences

model swing: 0 / 0 pp

England

No known absences.

Croatia

No known absences.

Win probability

Pre-match

The chart fills in from kickoff. We compute live win probability every 30 seconds.

Updated every 30s. Lines smoothed.

The model's read

Medium confidence

Result: England are slight favourites at 50%, but it is far from settled.
Goals: Goals expected. Over 2.5 lands 70% of the time.
Both score: Both teams to score is likely (69%).

Most likely score 1-1 (10%)

Why the model leans this way

Factor contributions

home←·→away

Rest days

-6.0%/+6.0%

Head-to-head

+1.2%/-1.2%

Set pieces

+1.8%/+0.2%

Club xG form

-1.8%/-0.9%

Travel

-1.0%/-1.0%

Two-model view

Second model api-football

Two models moderately agree

England

45%

Draw

45%

Croatia

10%

Their internal ratings (0-100)

0·

Form

·0

0·

Attack

·0

0·

Defence

·0

Their advice: Double chance : England or draw

Surfaced for transparency. We don't blend api-football's numbers into our model — a second opinion, not a vote.

Match analysis

Score-line probability

brighter = more likely

England goals

0123456

Croatia goals

Most likely: 1-1 10%, 2-1 9%, 2-2 7%. Outlined cells are draws.

Total goals

over 2.5 = 69%

Brighter bars are 3+ goals (over 2.5). Dashed line is the O/U 2.5 split.

Team comparison

EnglandCroatia

Percentile vs all 48 teams. Further out is stronger.

Fair odds for every market

How to use this

Fair odds is the lowest price worth taking. It is where a bet breaks even. If your bookmaker offers a bigger number than the fair odds here, the model says that's value. Shop around: the same bet is often priced differently across books.

Match result

Home win50%2.02

Draw24%4.14

Away win26%3.80

Double chance

Home or draw74%1.36

Home or away76%1.32

Draw or away50%1.98

Draw no bet

Home (DNB)65%1.53

Away (DNB)35%2.89

Total goals

Over 0.596%1.04

Under 0.54%25.77

Over 1.588%1.13

Under 1.512%8.66

Over 2.570%1.44

Under 2.530%3.28

Over 3.548%2.07

Under 3.552%1.93

Over 4.529%3.43

Under 4.571%1.41

Odd / even goals

Odd48%2.10

Even52%1.91

Exact total goals

0 goals4%25.77

1 goals8%13.05

2 goals19%5.29

3 goals21%4.70

4 goals19%5.24

5 goals14%7.29

6+ goals15%6.47

Both teams to score

Yes69%1.45

No31%3.23

Team totals

Home over 0.588%1.14

Home over 1.562%1.61

Home over 2.535%2.84

Away over 0.577%1.29

Away over 1.544%2.29

Away over 2.519%5.34

Clean sheet

Home clean sheet23%4.41

Away clean sheet12%8.22

Win to nil

Home win to nil19%5.32

Away win to nil8%12.06

Asian handicap (home)

Home -2.515%6.54

Home -1.531%3.24

Home -0.551%1.97

Home +0.574%1.35

Home +1.588%1.14

Home +2.596%1.05

Correct score (top 8)

1-110%10.26

2-19%11.01

2-27%14.84

1-26%15.62

3-16%15.68

2-06%16.34

3-25%21.14

1-05%21.32

Half-time result

Home41%2.46

Draw35%2.89

Away25%4.04

Half-time goals

Over 0.580%1.25

Under 0.520%5.03

Over 1.548%2.08

Under 1.552%1.92

Half-time / full-time

Home/Home33%3.02

Home/Draw5%19.14

Home/Away2%43.13

Draw/Home15%6.61

Draw/Draw11%9.49

Draw/Away9%11.20

Away/Home4%26.90

Away/Draw5%19.14

Away/Away16%6.32

Corners (match total)

Indicative

Over 8.576%1.32

Under 8.524%4.16

Over 9.565%1.54

Under 9.535%2.85

Over 10.553%1.89

Under 10.547%2.12

Over 11.541%2.44

Under 11.559%1.69

Over 12.530%3.32

Under 12.570%1.43

Expected total: 10.9

GB-ENG corners

Indicative

Over 3.578%1.28

Under 3.522%4.63

Over 4.562%1.61

Under 4.538%2.65

Over 5.545%2.22

Under 5.555%1.82

Over 6.529%3.39

Under 6.571%1.42

Expected total: 5.4

HR corners

Indicative

Over 3.580%1.25

Under 3.520%5.04

Over 4.565%1.55

Under 4.535%2.83

Over 5.548%2.10

Under 5.552%1.91

Over 6.532%3.14

Under 6.568%1.47

Expected total: 5.5

Yellow cards (match total)

Indicative

Over 2.560%1.66

Under 2.540%2.51

Over 3.538%2.65

Under 3.562%1.61

Over 4.520%4.91

Under 4.580%1.26

Over 5.510%10.47

Under 5.590%1.11

Expected total: 3.1

GB-ENG anytime goalscorer

Indicative

very low sample (n=0)

I. Toney (Attacker)47%2.13

D. Rose (?)19%5.27

D. Alli (?)19%5.27

Expected total: 1.1

HR anytime goalscorer

Indicative

very low sample (n=0)

M. Mitrović (?)14%7.25

I. Rakitić (?)14%7.25

Šime Vrsaljko (?)14%7.25

M. Brozović (?)14%7.25

D. Lovren (?)14%7.25

M. Livaja (?)14%7.25

L. Modrić (Midfielder)14%7.25

F. Benković (?)14%7.25

Expected total: 1.2

Probabilities and fair odds are derived from the model's full score-line distribution (expected goals: home 2.11, away 1.48). Half-time and HT/FT markets use a 45/55 first-half split. These are model estimates, not a betting guarantee.