Team
Colombia vs DR Congo
Group K · Matchday 2
· Estadio Akron, Guadalajara
Goals (1)
Cards (3)
56'
Colombia
Jhon Lucumi
94'Colombia
Jefferson Lerma
93'
DR Congo
Charles Pickel
Substitutions (8)
46'DR Congo
↑ N. Sadiki for N. Mukau
57'DR Congo
↑ Simon Banza for Cédric Bakambu
58'Colombia
↑ Jhon Cordoba for Luis Suárez
58'Colombia
↑ J. Quintero for J. Rodriguez
72'DR Congo
↑ J. Kayembe for A. Masuaku
72'DR Congo
↑ C. Pickel for E. Kayembe
77'Colombia
↑ R. Rios for J. Arias
82'DR Congo
↑ N. Mbuku for S. Moutoussamy
Match stats
64%Possession36%
19Shots8
9Shots on target1
0.99Expected goals0.29
5Corners4
11Fouls14
7Offsides0
1Saves8
88%Pass accuracy76%
Top performer
DMD. Munoz
Colombia · 1 goal
Lineups
Colombia4-2-3-1
What's at stake
Matchday 2, Group K. The losing side here typically needs a Matchday 3 win plus favourable other-game results to advance.
Season form comparison
sample home 5 · away 4
1.00
Goals / match
1.25
0.20
Conceded / match
1.25
20%
BTTS rate
75%
80%
Clean sheet rate
0%
1.62
xG / match (club)
0.00
4.5
Corners / match
4.3
2.2
Yellows / match
1.3
54%
Possession
44%
Colombia · last 5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record.
Absences
model swing: 0 / 0 pp
Colombia
No known absences.
DR Congo
No known absences.
Win probability
Pre-match
The chart fills in from kickoff. We compute live win probability every 30 seconds.
Updated every 30s. Lines smoothed.
The model's read
Medium confidenceResult: Colombia are slight favourites at 60%, but it is far from settled.
Goals: A low-scoring game looks likely. Under 2.5 is favoured (67%).
Both score: Expect at least one clean sheet. Both-teams-score is just 32%.
Most likely score 1-0 (19%)
Why the model leans this way
Factor contributions
home←·→away
Rest days
-6.0%/+6.0%
Club xG form
-1.5%/-5.4%
Travel
-4.0%/-3.0%
Two-model view
Second model api-football
Two models moderately agreeColombia
45%
Draw
45%
DR Congo
10%
Their internal ratings (0-100)
75·
Form
·25
75·
Attack
·25
50·
Defence
·50
Their advice: Winner : Colombia
Surfaced for transparency. We don't blend api-football's numbers into our model — a second opinion, not a vote.
Match analysis
Score-line probability
brighter = more likely
Colombia goals
15
6
19
12
15
8
8
0123456
DR Congo goals
Most likely: 1-0 19%, 2-0 15%, 0-0 15%. Outlined cells are draws.
Total goals
over 2.5 = 33%
150
241
282
183
94
45
26+
Brighter bars are 3+ goals (over 2.5). Dashed line is the O/U 2.5 split.
Team comparison
ColombiaDR Congo
Percentile vs all 48 teams. Further out is stronger.
Fair odds for every market
How to use this
Fair odds is the lowest price worth taking. It is where a bet breaks even. If your bookmaker offers a bigger number than the fair odds here, the model says that's value. Shop around: the same bet is often priced differently across books.
Match result
Home win60%1.68
Draw28%3.52
Away win12%8.31
Double chance
Home or draw88%1.14
Home or away72%1.40
Draw or away40%2.47
Draw no bet
Home (DNB)83%1.20
Away (DNB)17%5.94
Total goals
Over 0.585%1.17
Under 0.515%6.79
Over 1.561%1.64
Under 1.539%2.56
Over 2.533%3.07
Under 2.567%1.48
Over 3.514%6.91
Under 3.586%1.17
Over 4.55%18.67
Under 4.595%1.06
Odd / even goals
Odd46%2.15
Even54%1.87
Exact total goals
0 goals15%6.79
1 goals24%4.12
2 goals28%3.52
3 goals18%5.51
4 goals9%10.97
5 goals4%27.30
6+ goals2%59.08
Both teams to score
Yes32%3.09
No68%1.48
Team totals
Home over 0.578%1.29
Home over 1.544%2.26
Home over 2.519%5.23
Away over 0.540%2.50
Away over 1.59%10.72
Away over 2.52%65.98
Clean sheet
Home clean sheet60%1.67
Away clean sheet22%4.48
Win to nil
Home win to nil45%2.21
Away win to nil8%13.19
Asian handicap (home)
Home -2.514%7.33
Home -1.533%3.04
Home -0.560%1.65
Home +0.589%1.12
Home +1.597%1.03
Home +2.599%+1.00
Correct score (top 8)
1-019%5.33
2-015%6.63
0-015%6.79
1-112%8.63
2-18%13.01
3-08%13.27
0-16%18.18
3-14%26.02
Half-time result
Home42%2.39
Draw47%2.13
Away11%8.90
Half-time goals
Over 0.560%1.68
Under 0.540%2.47
Over 1.523%4.36
Under 1.577%1.30
Half-time / full-time
Home/Home38%2.63
Home/Draw3%31.18
Home/Away<1%213.20
Draw/Home22%4.54
Draw/Draw19%5.16
Draw/Away6%17.81
Away/Home2%59.72
Away/Draw3%31.18
Away/Away6%15.73
Corners (match total)
Indicativelow sample (n=13)
Over 8.553%1.88
Under 8.547%2.14
Over 9.540%2.50
Under 9.560%1.67
Over 10.528%3.54
Under 10.572%1.39
Over 11.519%5.32
Under 11.581%1.23
Over 12.512%8.52
Under 12.588%1.13
Expected total: 8.9
CO corners
IndicativeOver 3.564%1.56
Under 3.536%2.79
Over 4.545%2.22
Under 4.555%1.82
Over 5.528%3.56
Under 5.572%1.39
Over 6.516%6.37
Under 6.584%1.19
Expected total: 4.4
CD corners
Indicativelow sample (n=13)
Over 3.566%1.52
Under 3.534%2.92
Over 4.547%2.14
Under 4.553%1.88
Over 5.530%3.37
Under 5.570%1.42
Over 6.517%5.92
Under 6.583%1.20
Expected total: 4.5
Yellow cards (match total)
IndicativeOver 2.570%1.43
Under 2.530%3.31
Over 3.549%2.06
Under 3.551%1.95
Over 4.529%3.39
Under 4.571%1.42
Over 5.516%6.38
Under 5.584%1.19
Expected total: 3.6
CO anytime goalscorer
Indicativevery low sample (n=0)
J. Rodríguez (Attacker)36%2.76
J. Córdoba (Attacker)36%2.76
J. Murillo (?)14%7.18
I. Poveda (?)14%7.18
J. Cuadrado (?)14%7.18
A. Morelos (?)14%7.18
I. Arboleda (?)14%7.18
L. Orejuela (?)14%7.18
Expected total: 1.8
CD anytime goalscorer
Indicativelow sample (n=2)
F. Mayele (Attacker)16%6.20
B. Cipenga (Attacker)16%6.20
S. Banza (Attacker)14%7.05
G. Kakuta (Attacker)14%7.05
W. Balikwisha (?)5%20.12
S. Bastien (?)5%20.12
M. Bokadi (?)5%20.12
P. M'Poku (?)5%20.12
Expected total: 0.9
Probabilities and fair odds are derived from the model's full score-line distribution (expected goals: home 1.50, away 0.51). Half-time and HT/FT markets use a 45/55 first-half split. These are model estimates, not a betting guarantee.