Czechia vs Mexico

Group A · Matchday 3

· Estadio Azteca, Mexico City

Group A standings →Bracket →CZ 0% · MX 100% to advance

Czechia

18%

FT

0–3

Mexico

56%

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Goals (3)

55'

M. Chavez Garcia

Mexico
61'

J. Quinones

Mexico
94'

Álvaro Fidalgo

assist: Roberto Alvarado

Mexico

Cards (1)

64'

E. Alvarez

Mexico

Substitutions (10)

56'

↑ L. Provod for D. Visinsky

Czechia
63'

↑ Obed Vargas for Luis Romo

Mexico
63'

↑ Santiago Giménez for Guillermo Martínez

Mexico
64'

↑ Tomáš Souček for Tomáš Holeš

Czechia
64'

↑ Patrik Schick for Adam Hložek

Czechia
72'

↑ A. Fidalgo for G. Mora

Mexico
78'

↑ Jesús Gallardo for Mateo Chávez

Mexico
78'

↑ Guillermo Ochoa for Raúl Rangel

Mexico
87'

↑ Alexandr Sojka for Tomáš Souček

Czechia
87'

↑ Tomáš Chorý for Lukáš Červ

Czechia

Match stats

51%Possession49%
12Shots9
1Shots on target3
0.46Expected goals1.60
5Corners1
9Fouls13
1Offsides0
1Saves1
83%Pass accuracy86%

Top performer

MC

M. Chavez Garcia

Mexico · 1 goal

Lineups

Czechia3-4-2-1

Mexico4-3-3

What's at stake

Matchday 3, final group game. Both sides know the exact result they need.

Season form comparison

sample home 3 · away 5

0.67
Goals / match
2.00
2.00
Conceded / match
0.60
67%
BTTS rate
20%
0%
Clean sheet rate
80%
1.98
xG / match (club)
1.62
5.2
Corners / match
5.6
1.8
Yellows / match
2.2
50%
Possession
57%

Head to head · 1 meetings

0

Czechia wins

1

Draws

0

Mexico wins

Last: Mexico 0-0 Czechia (2020-03-27)avg 0.0 goals

Absences

model swing: 0 / 0 pp

Czechia

No known absences.

Mexico

No known absences.

Win probability

Pre-match

The chart fills in from kickoff. We compute live win probability every 30 seconds.

Updated every 30s. Lines smoothed.

The model's read

Medium confidence

  • Result: Mexico are slight favourites at 56%, but it is far from settled.

  • Goals: Goals are a coin-flip around the 2.5 line (over 50%).

Most likely score 1-1 (12%)

Why the model leans this way

Factor contributions

home←·→away

Rest days
+6.0%/-6.0%
Club xG form
-0.6%/-3.5%
Set pieces
+1.0%/-0.1%

Two-model view

Second model api-football

Two models moderately agree

Czechia

10%

Draw

45%

Mexico

45%

Their internal ratings (0-100)

14·
Form
·86
40·
Attack
·60
0·
Defence
·100

Their advice: Combo Double chance : draw or Mexico and -3.5 goals

Surfaced for transparency. We don't blend api-football's numbers into our model — a second opinion, not a vote.

Match analysis

Score-line probability

brighter = more likely

Czechia goals
8
11
11
6
5
12
10
6
5
4
0123456

Mexico goals

Most likely: 1-1 12%, 0-2 11%, 0-1 11%. Outlined cells are draws.

Total goals

over 2.5 = 50%

8
0
15
1
26
2
22
3
15
4
8
5
5
6+

Brighter bars are 3+ goals (over 2.5). Dashed line is the O/U 2.5 split.

Team comparison

AttackDefenceRatingSet-pieceattackSet-piecedefence
CzechiaMexico

Percentile vs all 48 teams. Further out is stronger.

Fair odds for every market

How to use this

Fair odds is the lowest price worth taking. It is where a bet breaks even. If your bookmaker offers a bigger number than the fair odds here, the model says that's value. Shop around: the same bet is often priced differently across books.

Match result

Home win18%5.54
Draw26%3.85
Away win56%1.79

Double chance

Home or draw44%2.27
Home or away74%1.35
Draw or away82%1.22

Draw no bet

Home (DNB)24%4.10
Away (DNB)76%1.32

Total goals

Over 0.592%1.09
Under 0.58%12.19
Over 1.576%1.31
Under 1.524%4.24
Over 2.550%1.98
Under 2.550%2.02
Over 3.528%3.52
Under 3.572%1.40
Over 4.514%7.37
Under 4.586%1.16

Odd / even goals

Odd47%2.13
Even53%1.88

Exact total goals

0 goals8%12.19
1 goals15%6.49
2 goals26%3.85
3 goals22%4.54
4 goals15%6.75
5 goals8%12.54
6+ goals6%17.85

Both teams to score

Yes51%1.97
No49%2.04

Team totals

Home over 0.559%1.69
Home over 1.523%4.40
Home over 2.56%15.91
Away over 0.583%1.20
Away over 1.553%1.87
Away over 2.527%3.75

Clean sheet

Home clean sheet17%6.00
Away clean sheet41%2.46

Win to nil

Home win to nil8%11.80
Away win to nil32%3.08

Asian handicap (home)

Home -2.52%65.83
Home -1.56%16.47
Home -0.517%5.82
Home +0.543%2.32
Home +1.567%1.50
Home +2.585%1.18

Correct score (top 8)

1-112%8.10
0-211%9.19
0-111%9.32
1-210%10.22
0-08%12.19
0-36%15.40
1-36%17.11
2-15%20.33

Half-time result

Home17%5.79
Draw40%2.48
Away42%2.36

Half-time goals

Over 0.570%1.42
Under 0.530%3.36
Over 1.534%2.93
Under 1.566%1.52

Half-time / full-time

Home/Home10%9.85
Home/Draw4%22.84
Home/Away3%36.63
Draw/Home7%13.69
Draw/Draw14%7.02
Draw/Away19%5.32
Away/Home1%86.84
Away/Draw4%22.84
Away/Away37%2.71

Corners (match total)

Indicative
Over 8.578%1.28
Under 8.522%4.55
Over 9.567%1.48
Under 9.533%3.07
Over 10.556%1.80
Under 10.544%2.26
Over 11.544%2.28
Under 11.556%1.78
Over 12.533%3.06
Under 12.567%1.49

Expected total: 11.1

CZ corners

Indicative
Over 3.582%1.23
Under 3.518%5.42
Over 4.567%1.50
Under 4.533%3.00
Over 5.550%2.01
Under 5.550%1.99
Over 6.534%2.95
Under 6.566%1.51

Expected total: 5.7

MX corners

Indicative
Over 3.580%1.26
Under 3.520%4.92
Over 4.564%1.56
Under 4.536%2.78
Over 5.547%2.13
Under 5.553%1.88
Over 6.531%3.21
Under 6.569%1.45

Expected total: 5.5

Yellow cards (match total)

Indicative
Over 2.571%1.40
Under 2.529%3.50
Over 3.551%1.98
Under 3.549%2.02
Over 4.531%3.20
Under 4.569%1.45
Over 5.517%5.90
Under 5.583%1.20

Expected total: 3.7

CZ anytime goalscorer

Indicative

very low sample (n=0)

T. Gebre Selassie (?)9%11.61
M. Rabušic (?)9%11.61
A. Barák (?)9%11.61
A. Matějů (?)9%11.61
P. Schwarz (?)9%11.61
P. Stronati (?)9%11.61
A. Jánoš (?)9%11.61

Expected total: 0.6

MX anytime goalscorer

Indicative

low sample (n=1)

J. Quiñones (Midfielder)25%4.01
H. Lozano (?)16%6.10
A. Guardado (?)16%6.10
H. González (?)16%6.10
N. Araújo (?)16%6.10
M. Layún (?)16%6.10
H. Moreno (?)16%6.10
L. Rodríguez (?)16%6.10

Expected total: 1.5

Probabilities and fair odds are derived from the model's full score-line distribution (expected goals: home 0.90, away 1.79). Half-time and HT/FT markets use a 45/55 first-half split. These are model estimates, not a betting guarantee.