Team
Czechia vs Mexico
Group A · Matchday 3
· Estadio Azteca, Mexico City
Goals (3)
Cards (1)
64'
Mexico
E. Alvarez
Substitutions (10)
56'
Czechia
↑ L. Provod for D. Visinsky
63'Mexico
↑ Obed Vargas for Luis Romo
63'Mexico
↑ Santiago Giménez for Guillermo Martínez
64'Czechia
↑ Tomáš Souček for Tomáš Holeš
64'Czechia
↑ Patrik Schick for Adam Hložek
72'Mexico
↑ A. Fidalgo for G. Mora
78'Mexico
↑ Jesús Gallardo for Mateo Chávez
78'Mexico
↑ Guillermo Ochoa for Raúl Rangel
87'Czechia
↑ Alexandr Sojka for Tomáš Souček
87'Czechia
↑ Tomáš Chorý for Lukáš Červ
Match stats
51%Possession49%
12Shots9
1Shots on target3
0.46Expected goals1.60
5Corners1
9Fouls13
1Offsides0
1Saves1
83%Pass accuracy86%
Top performer
MCM. Chavez Garcia
Mexico · 1 goal
Lineups
Czechia3-4-2-1
What's at stake
Matchday 3, final group game. Both sides know the exact result they need.
Season form comparison
sample home 3 · away 5
0.67
Goals / match
2.00
2.00
Conceded / match
0.60
67%
BTTS rate
20%
0%
Clean sheet rate
80%
1.98
xG / match (club)
1.62
5.2
Corners / match
5.6
1.8
Yellows / match
2.2
50%
Possession
57%
Head to head · 1 meetings
0
Czechia wins
1
Draws
0
Mexico wins
Last: Mexico 0-0 Czechia (2020-03-27)avg 0.0 goals
Absences
model swing: 0 / 0 pp
Czechia
No known absences.
Mexico
No known absences.
Win probability
Pre-match
The chart fills in from kickoff. We compute live win probability every 30 seconds.
Updated every 30s. Lines smoothed.
The model's read
Medium confidenceResult: Mexico are slight favourites at 56%, but it is far from settled.
Goals: Goals are a coin-flip around the 2.5 line (over 50%).
Most likely score 1-1 (12%)
Why the model leans this way
Factor contributions
home←·→away
Rest days
+6.0%/-6.0%
Club xG form
-0.6%/-3.5%
Set pieces
+1.0%/-0.1%
Two-model view
Second model api-football
Two models moderately agreeCzechia
10%
Draw
45%
Mexico
45%
Their internal ratings (0-100)
14·
Form
·86
40·
Attack
·60
0·
Defence
·100
Their advice: Combo Double chance : draw or Mexico and -3.5 goals
Surfaced for transparency. We don't blend api-football's numbers into our model — a second opinion, not a vote.
Match analysis
Score-line probability
brighter = more likely
Czechia goals
8
11
11
6
5
12
10
6
5
4
0123456
Mexico goals
Most likely: 1-1 12%, 0-2 11%, 0-1 11%. Outlined cells are draws.
Total goals
over 2.5 = 50%
80
151
262
223
154
85
56+
Brighter bars are 3+ goals (over 2.5). Dashed line is the O/U 2.5 split.
Team comparison
CzechiaMexico
Percentile vs all 48 teams. Further out is stronger.
Fair odds for every market
How to use this
Fair odds is the lowest price worth taking. It is where a bet breaks even. If your bookmaker offers a bigger number than the fair odds here, the model says that's value. Shop around: the same bet is often priced differently across books.
Match result
Home win18%5.54
Draw26%3.85
Away win56%1.79
Double chance
Home or draw44%2.27
Home or away74%1.35
Draw or away82%1.22
Draw no bet
Home (DNB)24%4.10
Away (DNB)76%1.32
Total goals
Over 0.592%1.09
Under 0.58%12.19
Over 1.576%1.31
Under 1.524%4.24
Over 2.550%1.98
Under 2.550%2.02
Over 3.528%3.52
Under 3.572%1.40
Over 4.514%7.37
Under 4.586%1.16
Odd / even goals
Odd47%2.13
Even53%1.88
Exact total goals
0 goals8%12.19
1 goals15%6.49
2 goals26%3.85
3 goals22%4.54
4 goals15%6.75
5 goals8%12.54
6+ goals6%17.85
Both teams to score
Yes51%1.97
No49%2.04
Team totals
Home over 0.559%1.69
Home over 1.523%4.40
Home over 2.56%15.91
Away over 0.583%1.20
Away over 1.553%1.87
Away over 2.527%3.75
Clean sheet
Home clean sheet17%6.00
Away clean sheet41%2.46
Win to nil
Home win to nil8%11.80
Away win to nil32%3.08
Asian handicap (home)
Home -2.52%65.83
Home -1.56%16.47
Home -0.517%5.82
Home +0.543%2.32
Home +1.567%1.50
Home +2.585%1.18
Correct score (top 8)
1-112%8.10
0-211%9.19
0-111%9.32
1-210%10.22
0-08%12.19
0-36%15.40
1-36%17.11
2-15%20.33
Half-time result
Home17%5.79
Draw40%2.48
Away42%2.36
Half-time goals
Over 0.570%1.42
Under 0.530%3.36
Over 1.534%2.93
Under 1.566%1.52
Half-time / full-time
Home/Home10%9.85
Home/Draw4%22.84
Home/Away3%36.63
Draw/Home7%13.69
Draw/Draw14%7.02
Draw/Away19%5.32
Away/Home1%86.84
Away/Draw4%22.84
Away/Away37%2.71
Corners (match total)
IndicativeOver 8.578%1.28
Under 8.522%4.55
Over 9.567%1.48
Under 9.533%3.07
Over 10.556%1.80
Under 10.544%2.26
Over 11.544%2.28
Under 11.556%1.78
Over 12.533%3.06
Under 12.567%1.49
Expected total: 11.1
CZ corners
IndicativeOver 3.582%1.23
Under 3.518%5.42
Over 4.567%1.50
Under 4.533%3.00
Over 5.550%2.01
Under 5.550%1.99
Over 6.534%2.95
Under 6.566%1.51
Expected total: 5.7
MX corners
IndicativeOver 3.580%1.26
Under 3.520%4.92
Over 4.564%1.56
Under 4.536%2.78
Over 5.547%2.13
Under 5.553%1.88
Over 6.531%3.21
Under 6.569%1.45
Expected total: 5.5
Yellow cards (match total)
IndicativeOver 2.571%1.40
Under 2.529%3.50
Over 3.551%1.98
Under 3.549%2.02
Over 4.531%3.20
Under 4.569%1.45
Over 5.517%5.90
Under 5.583%1.20
Expected total: 3.7
CZ anytime goalscorer
Indicativevery low sample (n=0)
T. Gebre Selassie (?)9%11.61
M. Rabušic (?)9%11.61
A. Barák (?)9%11.61
A. Matějů (?)9%11.61
P. Schwarz (?)9%11.61
P. Stronati (?)9%11.61
A. Jánoš (?)9%11.61
Expected total: 0.6
MX anytime goalscorer
Indicativelow sample (n=1)
J. Quiñones (Midfielder)25%4.01
H. Lozano (?)16%6.10
A. Guardado (?)16%6.10
H. González (?)16%6.10
N. Araújo (?)16%6.10
M. Layún (?)16%6.10
H. Moreno (?)16%6.10
L. Rodríguez (?)16%6.10
Expected total: 1.5
Probabilities and fair odds are derived from the model's full score-line distribution (expected goals: home 0.90, away 1.79). Half-time and HT/FT markets use a 45/55 first-half split. These are model estimates, not a betting guarantee.