South Africa vs South Korea
Group A · Matchday 3
· Estadio BBVA, Monterrey
Goals (1)
Cards (2)
A. Modiba
Cho Gue-Sung
Substitutions (8)
↑ Son Heung-Min for Hwang Hee-Chan
↑ Kim Jin-Gyu for Paik Seung-Ho
↑ J. Castrop for Lee Tae-Seok
↑ T. Moremi for O. Appollis
↑ Park Jin-Seob for Kim Min-Jae
↑ Cho Gue-Sung for Oh Hyeon-Gyu
↑ I. Rayners for T. Maseko
↑ J. Adams for R. Mofokeng
Match stats
Top performer
TMT. Maseko
South Africa · 1 goal
Lineups
South Africa4-2-3-1
South Korea3-4-2-1
What's at stake
Matchday 3, final group game. Both sides know the exact result they need.
Season form comparison
sample home 4 · away 3
South Africa · last 4
South Korea · last 3
Head to head · 1 meetings
0
South Africa wins
1
Draws
0
South Korea wins
Absences
model swing: 0 / 0 pp
South Africa
No known absences.
South Korea
No known absences.
Win probability
Pre-match
The chart fills in from kickoff. We compute live win probability every 30 seconds.
Updated every 30s. Lines smoothed.
The model's read
Medium confidenceResult: South Korea are slight favourites at 47%, but it is far from settled.
Goals: A low-scoring game looks likely. Under 2.5 is favoured (74%).
Both score: Expect at least one clean sheet. Both-teams-score is just 33%.
Why the model leans this way
Factor contributions
home←·→away
Two-model view
Second model api-football
Two models moderately agreeSouth Africa
0%
Draw
50%
South Korea
50%
Their internal ratings (0-100)
Their advice: Combo Double chance : draw or South Korea and -3.5 goals
Surfaced for transparency. We don't blend api-football's numbers into our model — a second opinion, not a vote.
Key players to watch
South Africa
No per-90 data for this squad yet.
South Korea
Per-90 stats: Rising Transfers (risingtransfers.com), CC BY 4.0
Match analysis
Score-line probability
brighter = more likely
South Korea goals
Most likely: 0-0 19%, 0-1 18%, 1-1 14%. Outlined cells are draws.
Total goals
over 2.5 = 26%
Brighter bars are 3+ goals (over 2.5). Dashed line is the O/U 2.5 split.
Team comparison
Percentile vs all 48 teams. Further out is stronger.
Fair odds for every market
How to use this
Fair odds is the lowest price worth taking. It is where a bet breaks even. If your bookmaker offers a bigger number than the fair odds here, the model says that's value. Shop around: the same bet is often priced differently across books.
Match result
Double chance
Draw no bet
Total goals
Odd / even goals
Exact total goals
Both teams to score
Team totals
Clean sheet
Win to nil
Asian handicap (home)
Correct score (top 8)
Half-time result
Half-time goals
Half-time / full-time
Corners (match total)
IndicativeExpected total: 11.1
ZA corners
IndicativeExpected total: 4.4
KR corners
IndicativeExpected total: 6.7
Yellow cards (match total)
IndicativeExpected total: 3.0
ZA anytime goalscorer
Indicativelow sample (n=2)
Expected total: 1.0
KR anytime goalscorer
Indicativevery low sample (n=0)
Expected total: 1.2
Probabilities and fair odds are derived from the model's full score-line distribution (expected goals: home 0.61, away 1.16). Half-time and HT/FT markets use a 45/55 first-half split. These are model estimates, not a betting guarantee.