Turkey vs United States
Group D · Matchday 3
· SoFi Stadium, Los Angeles
Goals (5)
Cards (1)
Sebastian Berhalter
Substitutions (10)
↑ Christian Pulisic for Timothy Weah
↑ Sergiño Dest for Giovanni Reyna
↑ Álex Zendejas for Brenden Aaronson
↑ Alex Freeman for Joe Scally
↑ Çağlar Söyüncü for Zeki Çelik
↑ Can Yilmaz Uzun for Kenan Yıldız
↑ Malik Tillman for Weston McKennie
↑ Kaan Ayhan for Orkun Kökçü
↑ M. Muldur for O. Aydin
↑ I. Kahveci for B. Yilmaz
Match stats
Top performer
SBSebastian Berhalter
United States · 1 goal
Lineups
Turkey4-2-3-1
United States4-1-2-3
What's at stake
Matchday 3, final group game. Both sides know the exact result they need.
Season form comparison
sample home 3 · away 5
Head to head · 1 meetings
1
Turkey wins
0
Draws
0
United States wins
Absences
model swing: 0 / 0 pp
Turkey
No known absences.
United States
No known absences.
Win probability
Pre-match
The chart fills in from kickoff. We compute live win probability every 30 seconds.
Updated every 30s. Lines smoothed.
The model's read
Wide-open matchResult: An open match. Turkey edge it at just 39%.
Goals: Goals expected. Over 2.5 lands 59% of the time.
Both score: Both teams to score is likely (63%).
Why the model leans this way
Factor contributions
home←·→away
Two-model view
Second model api-football
Two models divergeTurkey
10%
Draw
45%
United States
45%
Their internal ratings (0-100)
Their advice: Winner : USA
Surfaced for transparency. We don't blend api-football's numbers into our model — a second opinion, not a vote.
Match analysis
Score-line probability
brighter = more likely
United States goals
Most likely: 1-1 12%, 2-1 9%, 1-2 8%. Outlined cells are draws.
Total goals
over 2.5 = 59%
Brighter bars are 3+ goals (over 2.5). Dashed line is the O/U 2.5 split.
Team comparison
Percentile vs all 48 teams. Further out is stronger.
Fair odds for every market
How to use this
Fair odds is the lowest price worth taking. It is where a bet breaks even. If your bookmaker offers a bigger number than the fair odds here, the model says that's value. Shop around: the same bet is often priced differently across books.
Match result
Double chance
Draw no bet
Total goals
Odd / even goals
Exact total goals
Both teams to score
Team totals
Clean sheet
Win to nil
Asian handicap (home)
Correct score (top 8)
Half-time result
Half-time goals
Half-time / full-time
Corners (match total)
IndicativeExpected total: 10.5
TR corners
IndicativeExpected total: 5.2
US corners
IndicativeExpected total: 5.3
Yellow cards (match total)
IndicativeExpected total: 4.0
TR anytime goalscorer
Indicativevery low sample (n=0)
Expected total: 1.3
US anytime goalscorer
Indicativevery low sample (n=0)
Expected total: 0.7
Probabilities and fair odds are derived from the model's full score-line distribution (expected goals: home 1.60, away 1.47). Half-time and HT/FT markets use a 45/55 first-half split. These are model estimates, not a betting guarantee.