Paraguay vs Australia

Group D · Matchday 3

· Levi Stadium, Santa Clara

Group D standings →Bracket →PY 100% · AU 100% to advance

Paraguay

29%

FT

0–0

Australia

33%

Share card

Goals

No goals scored.

Cards (2)

46'

Jackson Irvine

Australia
77'

Diego Gomez

Paraguay

Substitutions (8)

46'

↑ Mauricio for A. Maidana

Paraguay
58'

↑ Ajdin Hrustic for Cristian Volpato

Australia
67'

↑ Alex Arce for Gabriel Ávalos

Paraguay
84'

↑ José Canale for Omar Alderete

Paraguay
84'

↑ Paul Okon-Engstler for Jackson Irvine

Australia
84'

↑ Tete Yengi for Nestory Irankunda

Australia
92'

↑ J. Alonso for M. Galarza

Paraguay
92'

↑ D. Bobadilla for D. Gomez

Paraguay

Match stats

43%Possession57%
7Shots12
2Shots on target5
1Corners3
8Fouls6
5Saves2

Lineups

Paraguay5-4-1

Australia3-4-3

What's at stake

Matchday 3, final group game. Both sides know the exact result they need.

Season form comparison

sample home 5 · away 4

0.60
Goals / match
0.75
1.20
Conceded / match
0.75
40%
BTTS rate
25%
40%
Clean sheet rate
50%
0.90
xG / match (club)
0.44
4.0
Corners / match
4.5
2.6
Yellows / match
1.5
47%
Possession
51%

Head to head · 1 meetings

0

Paraguay wins

1

Draws

0

Australia wins

Last: Paraguay 0-0 Australia (2026-06-26)avg 0.0 goals

Absences

model swing: 0 / 0 pp

Paraguay

No known absences.

Australia

No known absences.

Win probability

Pre-match

The chart fills in from kickoff. We compute live win probability every 30 seconds.

Updated every 30s. Lines smoothed.

The model's read

Wide-open match

  • Result: Too close to call. A draw is the single most likely outcome at 38%.

  • Goals: A low-scoring game looks likely. Under 2.5 is favoured (77%).

  • Both score: Expect at least one clean sheet. Both-teams-score is just 33%.

Most likely score 0-0 (21%)

Why the model leans this way

Factor contributions

home←·→away

Rest days
-2.0%/+2.0%
Club xG form
-4.5%/-2.3%

Two-model view

Second model api-football

Two models moderately agree

Paraguay

10%

Draw

45%

Australia

45%

Their internal ratings (0-100)

50·
Form
·50
50·
Attack
·50
33·
Defence
·67

Their advice: Double chance : draw or Australia

Surfaced for transparency. We don't blend api-football's numbers into our model — a second opinion, not a vote.

Match analysis

Score-line probability

brighter = more likely

Paraguay goals
21
15
7
13
15
6
6
5
0123456

Australia goals

Most likely: 0-0 21%, 0-1 15%, 1-1 15%. Outlined cells are draws.

Total goals

over 2.5 = 23%

21
0
28
1
28
2
14
3
6
4
2
5
1
6+

Brighter bars are 3+ goals (over 2.5). Dashed line is the O/U 2.5 split.

Team comparison

AttackDefenceRatingSet-pieceattackSet-piecedefence
ParaguayAustralia

Percentile vs all 48 teams. Further out is stronger.

Fair odds for every market

How to use this

Fair odds is the lowest price worth taking. It is where a bet breaks even. If your bookmaker offers a bigger number than the fair odds here, the model says that's value. Shop around: the same bet is often priced differently across books.

Match result

Home win29%3.48
Draw38%2.62
Away win33%3.03

Double chance

Home or draw67%1.49
Home or away62%1.62
Draw or away71%1.40

Draw no bet

Home (DNB)47%2.15
Away (DNB)53%1.87

Total goals

Over 0.579%1.27
Under 0.521%4.72
Over 1.550%1.99
Under 1.550%2.01
Over 2.523%4.43
Under 2.577%1.29
Over 3.58%11.93
Under 3.592%1.09
Over 4.53%38.88
Under 4.597%1.03

Odd / even goals

Odd45%2.24
Even55%1.81

Exact total goals

0 goals21%4.72
1 goals28%3.51
2 goals28%3.60
3 goals14%7.04
4 goals6%17.20
5 goals2%52.57
6+ goals1%149.25

Both teams to score

Yes33%3.05
No67%1.49

Team totals

Home over 0.554%1.85
Home over 1.518%5.45
Home over 2.54%22.57
Away over 0.558%1.74
Away over 1.521%4.71
Away over 2.56%17.82

Clean sheet

Home clean sheet42%2.36
Away clean sheet46%2.18

Win to nil

Home win to nil21%4.71
Away win to nil25%4.04

Asian handicap (home)

Home -2.52%45.46
Home -1.510%10.50
Home -0.529%3.49
Home +0.567%1.50
Home +1.588%1.14
Home +2.597%1.03

Correct score (top 8)

0-021%4.72
0-115%6.66
1-115%6.81
1-013%7.43
0-27%13.95
2-06%16.97
1-26%17.93
2-15%19.77

Half-time result

Home21%4.68
Draw55%1.83
Away24%4.16

Half-time goals

Over 0.552%1.92
Under 0.548%2.09
Over 1.517%5.94
Under 1.583%1.20

Half-time / full-time

Home/Home16%6.10
Home/Draw4%25.31
Home/Away1%95.65
Draw/Home13%7.69
Draw/Draw27%3.72
Draw/Away15%6.82
Away/Home1%107.12
Away/Draw4%25.31
Away/Away19%5.22

Corners (match total)

Indicative
Over 8.551%1.96
Under 8.549%2.05
Over 9.538%2.63
Under 9.562%1.61
Over 10.527%3.77
Under 10.574%1.36
Over 11.517%5.76
Under 11.583%1.21
Over 12.511%9.35
Under 12.589%1.12

Expected total: 8.8

PY corners

Indicative
Over 3.560%1.67
Under 3.540%2.48
Over 4.540%2.48
Under 4.560%1.67
Over 5.524%4.15
Under 5.576%1.32
Over 6.513%7.80
Under 6.587%1.15

Expected total: 4.2

AU corners

Indicative
Over 3.567%1.49
Under 3.533%3.05
Over 4.548%2.06
Under 4.552%1.94
Over 5.531%3.20
Under 5.569%1.45
Over 6.518%5.54
Under 6.582%1.22

Expected total: 4.6

Yellow cards (match total)

Indicative
Over 2.576%1.31
Under 2.524%4.24
Over 3.557%1.76
Under 3.543%2.32
Over 4.537%2.67
Under 4.563%1.60
Over 5.522%4.60
Under 5.578%1.28

Expected total: 4.0

PY anytime goalscorer

Indicative

very low sample (n=0)

A. Romero (Attacker)21%4.80
L. Melgarejo (?)7%13.35
A. Silva (?)7%13.35
B. Valdez (?)7%13.35
S. Arzamendia (?)7%13.35
R. Rojas (?)7%13.35
C. González (?)7%13.35
G. Giménez (?)7%13.35

Expected total: 0.8

AU anytime goalscorer

Indicative

very low sample (n=0)

T. Yengi (Attacker)23%4.41
N. Velupillay (Attacker)23%4.41
T. Sainsbury (?)8%12.17
A. Giannou (?)8%12.17
T. Rogić (?)8%12.17
D. Vukovic (?)8%12.17
M. Langerak (?)8%12.17
M. Jurman (?)8%12.17

Expected total: 1.0

Probabilities and fair odds are derived from the model's full score-line distribution (expected goals: home 0.78, away 0.86). Half-time and HT/FT markets use a 45/55 first-half split. These are model estimates, not a betting guarantee.