Team
Paraguay vs Australia
Group D · Matchday 3
· Levi Stadium, Santa Clara
Goals
No goals scored.
Cards (2)
46'
Australia
Jackson Irvine
77'
Paraguay
Diego Gomez
Substitutions (8)
46'Paraguay
↑ Mauricio for A. Maidana
58'Australia
↑ Ajdin Hrustic for Cristian Volpato
67'Paraguay
↑ Alex Arce for Gabriel Ávalos
84'Paraguay
↑ José Canale for Omar Alderete
84'Australia
↑ Paul Okon-Engstler for Jackson Irvine
84'Australia
↑ Tete Yengi for Nestory Irankunda
92'Paraguay
↑ J. Alonso for M. Galarza
92'Paraguay
↑ D. Bobadilla for D. Gomez
Match stats
43%Possession57%
7Shots12
2Shots on target5
1Corners3
8Fouls6
5Saves2
Lineups
Paraguay5-4-1
Australia3-4-3
What's at stake
Matchday 3, final group game. Both sides know the exact result they need.
Season form comparison
sample home 5 · away 4
0.60
Goals / match
0.75
1.20
Conceded / match
0.75
40%
BTTS rate
25%
40%
Clean sheet rate
50%
0.90
xG / match (club)
0.44
4.0
Corners / match
4.5
2.6
Yellows / match
1.5
47%
Possession
51%
Paraguay · last 5
Head to head · 1 meetings
0
Paraguay wins
1
Draws
0
Australia wins
Last: Paraguay 0-0 Australia (2026-06-26)avg 0.0 goals
Absences
model swing: 0 / 0 pp
Paraguay
No known absences.
Australia
No known absences.
Win probability
Pre-match
The chart fills in from kickoff. We compute live win probability every 30 seconds.
Updated every 30s. Lines smoothed.
The model's read
Wide-open matchResult: Too close to call. A draw is the single most likely outcome at 38%.
Goals: A low-scoring game looks likely. Under 2.5 is favoured (77%).
Both score: Expect at least one clean sheet. Both-teams-score is just 33%.
Most likely score 0-0 (21%)
Why the model leans this way
Factor contributions
home←·→away
Rest days
-2.0%/+2.0%
Club xG form
-4.5%/-2.3%
Two-model view
Second model api-football
Two models moderately agreeParaguay
10%
Draw
45%
Australia
45%
Their internal ratings (0-100)
50·
Form
·50
50·
Attack
·50
33·
Defence
·67
Their advice: Double chance : draw or Australia
Surfaced for transparency. We don't blend api-football's numbers into our model — a second opinion, not a vote.
Match analysis
Score-line probability
brighter = more likely
Paraguay goals
21
15
7
13
15
6
6
5
0123456
Australia goals
Most likely: 0-0 21%, 0-1 15%, 1-1 15%. Outlined cells are draws.
Total goals
over 2.5 = 23%
210
281
282
143
64
25
16+
Brighter bars are 3+ goals (over 2.5). Dashed line is the O/U 2.5 split.
Team comparison
ParaguayAustralia
Percentile vs all 48 teams. Further out is stronger.
Fair odds for every market
How to use this
Fair odds is the lowest price worth taking. It is where a bet breaks even. If your bookmaker offers a bigger number than the fair odds here, the model says that's value. Shop around: the same bet is often priced differently across books.
Match result
Home win29%3.48
Draw38%2.62
Away win33%3.03
Double chance
Home or draw67%1.49
Home or away62%1.62
Draw or away71%1.40
Draw no bet
Home (DNB)47%2.15
Away (DNB)53%1.87
Total goals
Over 0.579%1.27
Under 0.521%4.72
Over 1.550%1.99
Under 1.550%2.01
Over 2.523%4.43
Under 2.577%1.29
Over 3.58%11.93
Under 3.592%1.09
Over 4.53%38.88
Under 4.597%1.03
Odd / even goals
Odd45%2.24
Even55%1.81
Exact total goals
0 goals21%4.72
1 goals28%3.51
2 goals28%3.60
3 goals14%7.04
4 goals6%17.20
5 goals2%52.57
6+ goals1%149.25
Both teams to score
Yes33%3.05
No67%1.49
Team totals
Home over 0.554%1.85
Home over 1.518%5.45
Home over 2.54%22.57
Away over 0.558%1.74
Away over 1.521%4.71
Away over 2.56%17.82
Clean sheet
Home clean sheet42%2.36
Away clean sheet46%2.18
Win to nil
Home win to nil21%4.71
Away win to nil25%4.04
Asian handicap (home)
Home -2.52%45.46
Home -1.510%10.50
Home -0.529%3.49
Home +0.567%1.50
Home +1.588%1.14
Home +2.597%1.03
Correct score (top 8)
0-021%4.72
0-115%6.66
1-115%6.81
1-013%7.43
0-27%13.95
2-06%16.97
1-26%17.93
2-15%19.77
Half-time result
Home21%4.68
Draw55%1.83
Away24%4.16
Half-time goals
Over 0.552%1.92
Under 0.548%2.09
Over 1.517%5.94
Under 1.583%1.20
Half-time / full-time
Home/Home16%6.10
Home/Draw4%25.31
Home/Away1%95.65
Draw/Home13%7.69
Draw/Draw27%3.72
Draw/Away15%6.82
Away/Home1%107.12
Away/Draw4%25.31
Away/Away19%5.22
Corners (match total)
IndicativeOver 8.551%1.96
Under 8.549%2.05
Over 9.538%2.63
Under 9.562%1.61
Over 10.527%3.77
Under 10.574%1.36
Over 11.517%5.76
Under 11.583%1.21
Over 12.511%9.35
Under 12.589%1.12
Expected total: 8.8
PY corners
IndicativeOver 3.560%1.67
Under 3.540%2.48
Over 4.540%2.48
Under 4.560%1.67
Over 5.524%4.15
Under 5.576%1.32
Over 6.513%7.80
Under 6.587%1.15
Expected total: 4.2
AU corners
IndicativeOver 3.567%1.49
Under 3.533%3.05
Over 4.548%2.06
Under 4.552%1.94
Over 5.531%3.20
Under 5.569%1.45
Over 6.518%5.54
Under 6.582%1.22
Expected total: 4.6
Yellow cards (match total)
IndicativeOver 2.576%1.31
Under 2.524%4.24
Over 3.557%1.76
Under 3.543%2.32
Over 4.537%2.67
Under 4.563%1.60
Over 5.522%4.60
Under 5.578%1.28
Expected total: 4.0
PY anytime goalscorer
Indicativevery low sample (n=0)
A. Romero (Attacker)21%4.80
L. Melgarejo (?)7%13.35
A. Silva (?)7%13.35
B. Valdez (?)7%13.35
S. Arzamendia (?)7%13.35
R. Rojas (?)7%13.35
C. González (?)7%13.35
G. Giménez (?)7%13.35
Expected total: 0.8
AU anytime goalscorer
Indicativevery low sample (n=0)
T. Yengi (Attacker)23%4.41
N. Velupillay (Attacker)23%4.41
T. Sainsbury (?)8%12.17
A. Giannou (?)8%12.17
T. Rogić (?)8%12.17
D. Vukovic (?)8%12.17
M. Langerak (?)8%12.17
M. Jurman (?)8%12.17
Expected total: 1.0
Probabilities and fair odds are derived from the model's full score-line distribution (expected goals: home 0.78, away 0.86). Half-time and HT/FT markets use a 45/55 first-half split. These are model estimates, not a betting guarantee.